07-16-2008, 03:50 AM
Thanks for bringing things back on track.
Many of you are pretty close to my parents age--I'm going to be 40 this year, they 60. They're reasonably comfortable, and thinking about retirement as it's close--but seriously, let's add it up.
Let's say you're one of the "unusual" Baby Boomers that owns their house outright, and has no other outside debt on boats, cars, or harley davidsons.
Let's say you're really really really unusual, and you've actually saved some money too. Say you've saved a lot, even by American standards--say you've a portfolio of a round million bucks.
Let's say your health is OK.
Sound's pretty rosy, and I'm describing someone very rare and very successful, frankly. Even during the last 20 years of unprecedented boom, nearly half of Americans end up on public assistance.
AND THIS COUPLE I DESCRIBE CANNOT AFFORD TO RETIRE! At least conventionally, or in the manner they thought they might.
They won't be able to sell that house, at least in a timely manner, because all the rest of you are trying to do the same, and your kids sure can't afford it.
The stock portfolio is going to be fortunate to make even a break even rate of return for the next 5 years or so, so you'll start your retirement years burning principle. If you do that for two years, or three, you'd better be hoping you get cancer at 70.
It's going to take a very very drastic change in lifestyle to pull it all together. Probably involving living with the kids, part time work, or more to keep the health insurance--
It just doesn't look very good.
It looks worse for your kids. Their wages aren't going anywhere, expenses are coming up, there's no equity to be had in the rotten economy, and they're going to have to shoulder the tax burden for all the rest.
That's why I see this new "back to the land" movement at some point becoming framed primarily in economic terms rather than ideological terms. You're going to have the wood stove, because it's cheaper. Ecological reasons, sadly, will be distantly secondary than simply not shivering. You're going to grow a garden because that's the only way you'll ever afford to eat a bell pepper again. You'll be into "multi-generational" housing not because it's trendy, but it's the only thing the family can afford.
I think it's pretty sensible to phasing oneself into this habit of simplicity and "non-materialist" living while it still can be done so more or less as a hobby, and it's not compulsory. It takes a lot of work, and a lot of skill, mistakes are going to be made, and it isn't going to happen for anyone overnight.
Many of you are pretty close to my parents age--I'm going to be 40 this year, they 60. They're reasonably comfortable, and thinking about retirement as it's close--but seriously, let's add it up.
Let's say you're one of the "unusual" Baby Boomers that owns their house outright, and has no other outside debt on boats, cars, or harley davidsons.
Let's say you're really really really unusual, and you've actually saved some money too. Say you've saved a lot, even by American standards--say you've a portfolio of a round million bucks.
Let's say your health is OK.
Sound's pretty rosy, and I'm describing someone very rare and very successful, frankly. Even during the last 20 years of unprecedented boom, nearly half of Americans end up on public assistance.
AND THIS COUPLE I DESCRIBE CANNOT AFFORD TO RETIRE! At least conventionally, or in the manner they thought they might.
They won't be able to sell that house, at least in a timely manner, because all the rest of you are trying to do the same, and your kids sure can't afford it.
The stock portfolio is going to be fortunate to make even a break even rate of return for the next 5 years or so, so you'll start your retirement years burning principle. If you do that for two years, or three, you'd better be hoping you get cancer at 70.
It's going to take a very very drastic change in lifestyle to pull it all together. Probably involving living with the kids, part time work, or more to keep the health insurance--
It just doesn't look very good.
It looks worse for your kids. Their wages aren't going anywhere, expenses are coming up, there's no equity to be had in the rotten economy, and they're going to have to shoulder the tax burden for all the rest.
That's why I see this new "back to the land" movement at some point becoming framed primarily in economic terms rather than ideological terms. You're going to have the wood stove, because it's cheaper. Ecological reasons, sadly, will be distantly secondary than simply not shivering. You're going to grow a garden because that's the only way you'll ever afford to eat a bell pepper again. You'll be into "multi-generational" housing not because it's trendy, but it's the only thing the family can afford.
I think it's pretty sensible to phasing oneself into this habit of simplicity and "non-materialist" living while it still can be done so more or less as a hobby, and it's not compulsory. It takes a lot of work, and a lot of skill, mistakes are going to be made, and it isn't going to happen for anyone overnight.