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How does your local economy feel?
#31
Actually, all the real pros do time the market, and do so consistently. They want to talk everyone else out of it because it makes snapping up the cheap buys much more difficult.

I've never had much money, but I've always been involved in investment/speculation and it's always done very very well for me. God, if I hadn't been born a hick kid! and got to start out with, um, maybe 10000 bucks? Ah well. I sold out completely a year or so ago and missed the market peak by 4 days. Not to be a snot, but you can know. It simply takes a great deal of commitment. As well, those who know me know I'm the kind of guy that gets up at 5:30 and does two hours of research before I go pound nails. Not everyone is like that or that, well, retentive? I live in an off-grid 250 square foot cabin run on biomass and dabble in forex.

At this point, step away from the table. We are in a moment of uncertainty. Uncertainty is not risk. Risk is calculable. Uncertainty is not. Risk may be like playing roulette, where you know you're 4 percent(typically) to the negative, but you play anyhow for free drinks. Uncertainty is playing roulette when they don't let you see the wheel, and there's a fair chance the casino will burn down in the mean time and everyone will run screaming in flames for the doors. . .in other words, there is no sensible way to calculate the risk.

I think we're at least 20 percent from the bottom in most markets in real estate, and 40 in others that were overpriced. I don't believe there will ever be a recovery. I mean, I don't believe there will ever be a recovery. Why? The only way real estate prices got to where they were was by giving houses to people, by frankly fraudulent means, who were patently unable to carry the debt service. The only way to get the real estate values to recover is to create millions of people who can afford million dollar homes, and are stupid enough to buy them. Fat chance. The other MAJOR issue is that the vast majority of home owners with equity in their homes, the baby boomers, at this moment want to dump them. Their kids, on the other hand, haven't the money to buy them. It takes very little or sophisticated math to figure where this will go.

The real issue isn't subprime mortgages, it's sub prime incomes in a chronically subprime economy. The only way there has been any growth at all for the last 15 years has been the expansion of bogus credit.

The biggest problem with this trillion dollar bailout that Paulson wants is that it isn't big enough to do any good. I expect the real price tag to be 5 to 10 times higher. There's 2 trillion dollars of bad home equity loans out there! Leveraged against what?

This is why I'd like to invest in taro hulis, please! As well, I believe there are massively valuable opportunities out there, but one will need to live well ahead of the curve and herd to catch them. . .and as everyone runs faster, well, you get the point.
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#32
And yes, Mella is dead right.

Who would have the balls to ask for something like that?

Under those provisions, Paulson could write a check to himself!
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#33
quote:
Originally posted by JWFITZ

Actually, all the real pros do time the market, and do so consistently. They want to talk everyone else out of it because it makes snapping up the cheap buys much more difficult.

Yes, they are paid to time the market but they don't do it well! Study after study finds that over any reasonable period of time you do better just buying an index fund that trusting active managers who are trying to beat the market.

Having said that, I'm thinking about trying to time this real estate market by buying a rental property. I'm thinking the bottom is in 2009, but I'm sure I will buy either too soon or too late!
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#34
I think a good time to buy is now .It will not be unusual that after the election mortgage rates will go up.(Or not?)
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#35
its a good time to buy, yes. but their is a catch. they have tightened the credit criteria, to the point that most people don't have a credit score of 780. it used to be 720 was considered a perfect credit score. so unless you have cash expect to pay high interest and points.
I don't know what they are going to do with a 100 trillion dollars of real-estate that is currently in foreclosure. What I am afraid is going to happen. Is if all those homes go back on the market (which is already flooded) it is going to dramatically decrease the value of every ones homes, to the point everyone with a mortgage will owe more than their home is worth. I cant really see any other way to have that amount of money absorbed into the mainstream.
They screwed up big time by letting anyone into homes even if they couldn't afford it, I blame the mortgage companies for this but also blame the real-estate agents who don't have their clients best interest at heart. who cares if they loose the house they will get the chance to sell it again. Both John's please don't take offence I am not aiming this at you. it just seems to be the norm across the U.S.[V]

setting my soul free....
setting my soul free....
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#36
My personal prediction is that the Hawaii market won't find the bottom for 18 to 24 months, at the very best. Elsewhere where the market was hit harder and earlier, you will find an earlier recovery as the excess inventory in those markets gets eliminated by the bottom feeders. In my area we are seeing some increases in sales which I believe will soon result in an effective inventory reduction. However, a large percentage of these are short sales, so an increase in property values will be very slow. I think Hawaii has yet to go through this very painful period of adjustment. The current stock market crisis will, I believe, accelerate the process. Hawaii has always been a different market and experiences a delayed reaction to economic downturns. For the most part, the people hurt most and first by economic downturns are not those that drive most of Hawaii's housing market. That's not a value judgement on what should or shouldn't be, but what is, IMHO.

Pua`a
S. FL
Big Islander to be.
Pua`a
S. FL
Big Islander to be.
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#37
quote:
Originally posted by lostboystoy

its a good time to buy, yes. but their is a catch.


You are right,there is a catch.But can you work with a good financial broker to find you a better deal?
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#38
My sources in so. call are talking about $3000 payments on a house that is 200k upside down, san diego seems to be hardest hit.

Add to that 800 a month in fuel to drive to work to make that mortgage

Add to that small business is dying on the vine

And inflation is at almost 6% and climbing

there are a lot of frightened angry people out there ... I hope that anger genie stays in the bottle, a lot of "real estate" bloggers are making references to taking it to the street.

As aside, I read the bail out proposal, seems more like something the third reich would have proposed ..... "no oversight" .... than a true democracy

good luck to us all, get those gardens started is my take -

bullwinkle
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#39
quote:
Originally posted by Bullwinkle

My sources in so. call are talking about $3000 payments on a house that is 200k upside down, san diego seems to be hardest hit.

Add to that 800 a month in fuel to drive to work to make that mortgage




800? Is the work in the different state?[Wink]
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#40
try 50 miles one way in a suv (they are upside down in that also) ..... (riverside -orange county add to that toll charges for the 91 by the way --- 10 bucks last I used it on a friday eve) worst of it is there are whole sub developments / cities of folks facing the same issues

I know from experience fuel in so cal hurts. I blow thru $250 a week - social driving oc to san diego / carlsbad /oceanside - that is where my buddies live, not to mention biz meetings - 37 miles one way to the "shop" in OC from the cabin in cleveland forest) --- and I keep a toyota!

--- the current real estate / cheap oil, based us model is not sustainable .... bubble is starting to pop, the pipe they were all smoking from is out - depression on the way, news at 11, start the garden

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