Anyone Feeling Sick???

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There is an outbreak of Swine Flu in Mexico and Texas, and there is fear of a possible pandemic. The White House is involved, as is the Center for Disease Control in Switzerland. Mexico City is all but shut down, and schools are closing in Texas. 75 school kids in New York City are showing "flu-like symptoms" and there will be a press release in less than an hour. Symptoms include but are not limited to muscle ache and diarrhea.

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Update and correction.

Correction first: It's the World Health Organization in Geneva, Switzerland, not the Center for Disease Control.

Update: 60 dead in Mexico City, out of which 20 are confirmed Swine Flu. The rest may or may not be regular flu. A few sick in Southern California, all mild cases of Swine Flu, all recovered. 2 sick of Swine Flu in Texas, both cases were mild, the school was closed as a precaution. The NYC press release said 100 sick at the school, a few were tested, preliminary tests show it's "type A influenza", which may or may not be Swine Flu. Testing continues.

CNN will devote an hour to the issue beginning at 10:00 AM our time (about 40 minutes from this posting).

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This morning, the NY Times reported that mild cases have now been reported in New York, California, Texas, Kansas, and Ohio. Canada has 4. Deaths in Mexico are up to 80, and 1300 are infected. There are potential new cases ranging from New Zealand to Hong Kong. Russia and China have set up quarantines for anyone possibly infected. The World Health Organization stated this is a public health emergency of international concern, but is holding off raising the pandemic scale until Tuesday (on a scale of 1 -6, it's now at 3, with 6 being a full-blown pandemic).

It would be great if this is the last posting.

[macuu222]

US declares health emergency on confirmed cases of swine flu in 5 states...this just in a few hours ago.

http://news.aol.com/article/school-flu-t...t%2F445903

[JWFITZ]

They brought the warning level to 4 just after the market closed.

Still, I'd say no panics. Even if the death rate from the pandemic was as high as the Spanish Flu the 'teens you're far more likely to die on the road here in Hawaii than you would be going to the grocery store and getting the flu. At that rate of mortality we'd expect about 20 fatalities on the Big Island. How many people were killed by pinheads driving drunk last year? 60 or so?

[PaulW]

I think you're underestimating the Spanish flu.

The fact that the only deaths so far have been in Mexico leads investigators to conclude that it may be a mixture of viruses, which luckily (for us) seem to have not coincided outside of the country.

[JWFITZ]

Underestimating? I doubt it. I'm the undertakers kid that grew up talking to pathologists.

Anybody else buy 100 lbs of rice this morning at Walmart? Just in case you needed to take a vacation from other people suddenly? I did, and I'd suggest it's worth thinking about just in case all of a sudden there's 30 cases in Hilo and you might want to keep your kids home for a week or two.

But I drive very defensively too. And I stay off the road after dark as a matter of principle.

My observation being the Spanish Flu pandemic killed estimated 20 million people world wide in a population of 2 billion estimated, world wide. We face all sorts of fatal risks on that kind of statistical scale, many of which we're far too tolerant of. It's a matter of sensible perspective.

It's also worth considering and a cruel irony that "local" people who share genetic material with each other are always the hardest hit. Since I've no relations on the island I'm at much lower risk than many. If you get "innoculated" by a family member or someone with shared genetics you're much much less likely to manifest real resistance.

[PaulW]

I thought it was 50 million, but anyway 20 million out of 2 billion is 1%, so that would be 1000+ people dead on the Big Island, which is a bit more than 20. Unless I've missed something here.

You say no panic and then you say you've just bought 100lbs of rice. If everyone did that, wouldn't that be called a panic?

How does one get "innoculated" by a family member?

[JWFITZ]

Preparation isn't panic. Panic is what you get if you don't prepare.

[mdd7000]

You simply cannot compare the outcome of the Spanish Flu to today. Most countries of the world (today) have much better medicine, doctors, hospitals, Mexico notwithstanding... This version is already being called a mild version of the flu.

Most people do not die from the flu itself anyway. They die from their own bodies reaction to the virus or additional complications brought on by the comprised immune system due to the flu.