Storm/cyclone headed for hilo

[DanielP]

Felicia looks alot more serious than any others that I have watched. Maybe she will weaken or turn. If not, Hang on to your knickers!

[TomK]

Paul - I'm not a meteorologist but my father was and I learned the odd thing from him! In both the Pacific and Atlantic during the summer, there relatively stable regions of high pressure in the northern region of the oceans. Air circulates clockwise around these (due to the earth's rotation) and it just happens that close to the equator these winds blow from east to west (our trade winds for example). Hurricanes are steered by low-level winds hence in both oceans, in the northern hemisphere, hurricanes generally track to the west until they reach the northerly part of the circulation, and then head north.

Tom

[PaulW]

Thanks Tom, I saw this in Wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_wind
"The surface air that flows from these subtropical high-pressure belts toward the Equator is deflected toward the west in both hemispheres by the Coriolis effect."

[Bullwinkle]

http://www.starbulletin.com/news/2009080...licia.html


I dont like the looks of the predicted track. I may swing by town for some extra canned food and flashlight batteries today, just in case. Always a good idea... HECO should be classified as a part time power company as it is here in the hinterlands, must be due to those low flying copters getting tangled in the power lines - grin

[Hotzcatz]

Is there any toilet paper, rice or spam left at the stores? When it gets serious, all the shelves will be emptied of those items.

In all that listing of different types and names of storms, I didn't see "Killer Konas" mentioned. There was a vicious set of those which whipped through and caused rather a lot of damage a year or two after Hurricane Iwa ripped up Kauai and Oahu.

---

"I like yard sales," he said. "All true survivalists like yard sales."
Kurt Wilson

[PaulW]

If Felicia makes it here it won't even be a hurricane any more, but tha's not as interesting as trying to provoke some panic buying.

[Tahunatics]

Great, we just got our roof on!

[JerryCarr]

If the path and intensity projections for Felicia hold true (and they often don't,) the biggest problem is likely to be power outages. Thinking of only a fraction of all those brittle albesia trees in Puna coming down on power lines does not present a pretty picture. (Am I the only one who doubts HELCO's ability to deal with anything worse than some localized outages?)

Tropical storm winds can range from 39 to 73mph. At the low end, we probably won't have horrible problems since we have regular windstorms of that strength. At the high end, watch out. Of course the usual outcome in recent years has been either a miss or a fizzle. Let's hope that trend continues. And, yes, the media will no doubt provoke some panic buying. In this part of the world, sensible people are always prepared with non-perishable foods, non-electric lighting, and books to read. Oh yes, mustn't forget that ultimate, indispensible foundation of civilization, toilet paper.

Cheerfully prepared,
Jerry

[Bullwinkle]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/1500Z 14.1N 128.7W 100 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 15.0N 130.0W 105 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 16.4N 131.7W 105 KT
36HR VT 07/0000Z 17.4N 133.2W 100 KT
48HR VT 07/1200Z 18.3N 135.3W 95 KT
72HR VT 08/1200Z 19.9N 140.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 09/1200Z 20.5N 145.3W 65 KT
120HR VT 10/1200Z 20.5N 150.9W 50 KT

the 120 hr fore cast has 50 knot winds about 300 miles offshore in 5 days. Note how they have it moving about 300 knots in 24 hrs, anything can happen at this juncture good or bad..

And me I still have that loose plywood about on the windward side of the guest house under construction. argh! time to get put down the keyboard, get to work and deal with it.

[jade]

Looks like anything can happen.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics...ml?5-daynl