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Somehow the phrase "A broken clock is right twice a day" comes to mind. Analyzing predictions in hindsight may or may not determine who is the best prognosticator. On one day on one or more subjects anyone is randomly capable of being right or wrong. Much, much more than one year's worth of random predictions is needed. That is why I keep Nostradamus on my speed dial.
Meanwhile I still predict that when the Woodland Center in Pahoa Village opens traffic and rate of accidents will increase substantially.
Assume the best and ask questions.
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I don't know if your reward is in the bank or not. I just know your prediction was wrong,
the bottom of the market was not in the range you gave.
"Who gave the economic advise, which if followed, would have netted an individual the greatest economic gains for the year?." (sic)
Glad you asked! I'll spin it, as always, with those pesky numbers.
JFWITZ predicted, on Oct 25 2008, that the Dow would bottom out at 7000-7200.
At the time, the Dow was at 9065. Anyone betting on that prediction would've
cashed in at 7200 when it was fulfilled. (9065-7200)/9065 = 20.57% change.
PaulW predicted, on Feb 25, 2009, that the Dow would top 10,000 in 2009.
At the time the Dow was 7270. (10000-7270)/7270 = 37.55% change.
So, anyone foolish enough to bet on internet forum predictions would've made
more money following my advice.
I predict marijuana will not be decriminalized in Hawaii in 2010.
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As always with those pesky numbers, you utilized them to misrepresent the facts, and in this case in a matter hardly even coherent. Anyone watching for a bottom following my advice would have started watching for a bottom at 7200 and felt entitled to purchase at 7000 as a sure deal. Since I've not called for a sell date--and don't read one into my prediction--that would be yet another misrepresentation. In this case you'd pocket the difference between whatever intraday low you pulled the trigger on and the value of the Dow Dec 31. There's no reason whatsoever you'd feel entitled to sell out in the nines, that's wholly nuts and a classic PaulW stunt to even bring that up. You'd likely still be holding it today. I would have suggested not to sell at all, but as I didn't suggest a sell date we should keep the return limited to fiscal year 2009. In full disclosure, I personally sold, for tax reasons, at the end of the year, but there's no projected reason why one should as that issue was complete off topic and personal.
And, in the context of the conversation, this prediction was made near 6 months ahead of the event, against popular wisdom, deliberately, and if anyone read the preceding thread--reconfirmed several times. Hardly an off the cuff flier or likely to be just a matter of luck. Not only that it's a qualitatively different kind of prediction, and one that takes a lot of guts--calling for a trend reversal. You decided to get on the bus after it started rolling. I'm not critiquing your call. It's fine. A much less interesting call by any measure and to my mind mostly self evident at the point it was made, but whatever.
And pray tell, Paul, what rate of return would strategy generate? Spin it how you like it. It's better than yours.
At the end of the day, matter how you want to portray it, my "error" is a better call than your "correct assessment" and comes across as vastly more informed, deliberate, and ahead of the curve. While an error in bizarre absolute terms. if anyone cares, it's also more accurate, trustworthy, and useful. It's obvious, I expect, to anyone still interested in this very tiresome thread, that you're out on some axe grinding mission to discredit that fact by cooking the books. This is no tit-for tat issue. I'm not getting at you or your observations at all, solely defending the matter of record. Hopefully this now is resolved and I can get back to more constructive details. I stick with it solely because people of good will need to have a stronger back-bone standing up with the typical Sean Hannity debate style of misrepresentation, shouting, sneaking off to fade outs if you're losing, and total disingenuity with the sole intent to score points for some agenda. This has become so pervasive and it is very damaging to our country and our community and our future and needs to be shown as such.
Sorry Rob, I do my best to stay out of this crap and not bring it into your forum.
http://sensiblesimplicity.lefora.com/
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I predict that in 2010 the http://Punaweb.org Forum will remain the greatest source for Puna related debates, heated arguments, discussions, questions, answers and great laughs.
E ho'a'o no i pau kuhihewa.
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The dow could go up to 40000000 but if a loaf of bread is 1000 bucks it wont matter. Why dont you try to measure it in real currency not FIAT currency in which you have no knowledge to even how much exists.
EITHER WAY the market adjusted for inflation peaked in 1996.
http://www.chartoftheday.com/20091023.htm
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/time-fo...2010-01-05
quote:
Originally posted by JWFITZ
As always with those pesky numbers, you utilized them to misrepresent the facts, and in this case in a matter hardly even coheirent. Anyone watching for a bottom following my advice would have started watching for a bottom at 7200 and felt entitled to purchase at 7000 as a sure deal. Since I've not called for a sell date--and don't read one into my prediction--that would be yet another misrepresentation. In this case you'd pocket the difference between whatever intraday low you pulled the trigger on and the value of the Dow Dec 31. There's no reason whatsoever you'd feel entitled to sell out in the nines, that's wholly nuts and a classic PaulW stunt to even bring that up. You'd likely still be holding it today. I would have suggested not to sell at all, but as I didn't suggest a sell date we should keep the return limited to fiscal year 2009. In full disclosure, I personally sold, for tax reasons, at the end of the year, but there's no projected reason why one should as that issue was complete off topic and personal.
And, in the context of the conversation, this prediction was made near 6 months ahead of the event, against popular wisdom, deliberately, and if anyone read the preceding thread--reconfirmed several times. Hardly an off the cuff flier or likely to be just a matter of luck. Not only that it's a qualitatively different kind of prediction, and one that takes a lot of guts--calling for a trend reversal. You decided to get on the bus after it started rolling. I'm not critiquing your call. It's fine. A much less interesting call by any measure and to my mind mostly self evident at the point it was made, but whatever.
And pray tell, Paul, what rate of return would this generate? Spin it how you like it. It's better than yours.
At the end of the day, matter how you want to protray it, my "error" is a better call than your "correct assessment" and comes across as vastly more informed, deliberate, and ahead of the curve. It's obvious, I expect, to anyone still interested in this very tiresome thread, that you're out on some axe grinding mission to discredit that fact by cooking the books. This is no tit-for tat issue. I'm not getting at you or your observations at all, solely defending the matter of record. Hopefully this now is resolved and I can get back to more constructive details. I stick with it soley because people of good will need to have a stronger back-bone standing up with the typical Sean Hannity debate style of misrepresentation, shouting, sneaking off to fade outs if you're losing, and total disingenuity with the sole intent to score points for some agenda. This has become so pervasive and it is very damaging to our country and our community and our future and needs to be shown as such.
Sorry Rob, I do my best to stay out of this crap and not bring it into your forum.
http://sensiblesimplicity.lefora.com/
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Believe me, I'm on your page--I've just been drawn into a silly side argument. The Dow in gold/nominal terms has not looked so prosperous. As well, the Dow is a poor measure of the US economy anyhow, as it's comprised of such giant companies it's more reflective of a global index than the US. A lot of the rally/or valuation in the Dow is accounted by the relative value of the dollar. That of course is another issue. Hawaii however, is strongly influenced by the yen also--I'd be interested to know figures that could quantify that, but I suspect it's pretty high. Muddies the picture locally a bit but not necessarily in a bad way.
http://sensiblesimplicity.lefora.com/
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chrisb483,
i have a question for you re: this... what do propose to do with people that want to have a free market and possibly form an economy?
quote:
Originally posted by chrisb483
What we need is anarchism.
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I predict 2010 will be the year that births the sub Forum - "Cuss, Curse and Argue" - right above Farming and Gardening.
E ho'a'o no i pau kuhihewa.
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quote:
Originally posted by 808blogger
chrisb483,
what do [you] propose to do with people that want to have a free market and possibly form an economy?
Nothing if the system they set up is non-authoritairian. When you speak of "economy" however, and you mean that people make a profit off of other peoples labor, I am afraid that would not be allowed.
A real economy, you see, needs no manipulation. It is natural and needs no economists.
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Under whose authority?
quote:
I am afraid that would not be allowed.
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