Predictions for 2010

[chrisb483]

Society's authority.

[Wao nahele kane]

Wave bye bye to the sciences, space exploration and all the great technological advancements. We're now set back to the days of the caveman darn near in such a scenario. No, but thank you anyhow, the motive was nice.
Such a thought is as poorly conceived as is Socialism. Neither will work until we've achieved the appropriate level of technology to support such silly notions. When that day arrives; we'll have the choice to pick either and or... go it alone.
Till then - May Order Keep Peace and Peace Keep Order.

E ho'a'o no i pau kuhihewa.

[chrisb483]

Why wouldn't a society that liked to use computers build computers our of pure self interest? That is how Apple got started after all.

I most certainly do not want to live like a caveman.

You think people are driven by profit, but that is only because the system we have now demands a profit to satisfy the eventual crush of debt for a certain part of the population.

Do you understand that right now you do not have access to the basic needs of survival because of capitalism? What good is science if you are a slave?

[PaulW]

"You decided to get on the bus after it started rolling."
I predicted 10,000 within 9 months when the Dow was at 7200 and on the way to 6400. I doubt that such
a reversal has ever happened in its entire history.

You, on the other hand, predicted a 20% drop in the Dow without even giving a timeframe.
That is a sure bet any day of the week.

I'm sorry your prediction was wrong, but the numbers don't lie. Don't take it so hard.
You may think your prediction was "vastly more informed, deliberate, and ahead of the curve"
but it was still wrong!

---

Come on guys, this is prediction thread, throw in a few obligatory ones when discussing how you want to rearrange the world.

I predict in 2010: an increase in tourist numbers for the Big Island

[Wao nahele kane]

"Why wouldn't a society that liked to use computers build computers our of pure self interest? That is how Apple got started after all."
Who would have had the resources to create and etch the silicon to create the micro chip?
Let's get real here, our technology was birthed from military interests and that required taxation and profits of some sort. The things we have today were not born out of simple resource curiosities.

I predict that in 2010: being the "slave" I've been labeled... I will be getting on a plane and moving to a place I want without permission from my fiction based "master". I also predict it could have been anyplace in the world I so desired. Hmmm... I don't feel like a slave, don't fit the description either. You must be talking about people who volunteer to live as they chose. Hmmm; Is it slavery or simply living in voluntary accord?

When they come to take away education and all the books to learn, then we can talk slavery... K?


E ho'a'o no i pau kuhihewa.

[Wao nahele kane]

I predict that 2010 will spawn a new ideology in self awareness and begin our path to societal enlightenment in all the realities that surround us.

I also predict that we'll celebrate Thomas Crapper Day on January 27 and not January 17th this year. A mile stone in human curiosity inventions, the toilet, what will we think of next?
I predict that in 2010; the cesspool will be removed from the list of allowed waste handling systems in Hawaii.

E ho'a'o no i pau kuhihewa.

[808blogger]

chrisb
The system we have now is NOT capitalism or FREE MARKET..
there is no competing currency, THE ONLY REASON THE INTEREST/PRINCIPAL feedback loop exists is because of FRACTIONAL RESERVE BANKING and the FEDERAL RESERVE,

I suspected you were a closet authoritarian because you write like one. you do no write like a person who wants freedom. you are just ANTI,

society would build computers, but it takes SPECIALIZATION, and possibly i want to SELL THEM to go get some hamburgers, but if there is no economy i can only TRADE them for something... NOW THAT SUCKS,,, i need to find a dude that has hamburgers and WANTS computers. THATS TOUGH, but if there were an economy and exchange medium (i.e. money) I would not be held back by the paradox of mutual wants. you see economy FREES PEOPLE from having to barter and trade item by item.

THE PROBLEMS COME when nations give in to the bankers and robbers and allow the creation a central bank, fractional reserve banking, artificial interest rates and A MONOPOLY ON THE CURRENCY, and NOW a curency that is as good as monopoly money.

I understand you are "Well educated" and have "dual degrees" good for you... but you make so sense, especially when discussing economic matters...

I sure wont bow the authority of "society" if i deem i want to start an economy in your "anarchist" (if there is authority there is no anarchism) society. I think you are read in the ways of the anarcho socialist and do not realize that IS authoritarianism.

again you also completely misunderstand human nature and motivation as well. people are not what you think they are and IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH SOCIETY, to groom and train the self interest out of a human child is to create a robot that a master can control.

quote:

---

Originally posted by chrisb483

Why wouldn't a society that liked to use computers build computers our of pure self interest? That is how Apple got started after all.

I most certainly do not want to live like a caveman.

You think people are driven by profit, but that is only because the system we have now demands a profit to satisfy the eventual crush of debt for a certain part of the population.

Do you understand that right now you do not have access to the basic needs of survival because of capitalism? What good is science if you are a slave?

---

[JWFITZ]

Nice spin Paul. That's just stupid. Fact remains, your call was a much weaker call. Not only that, it's a nice idea to make a prediction for a year with a year ahead of you, not after a quarter of it is past, including elections and a demonstrated willingness to bail out failed companies, especially considering the case of Citigroup and GM. Even with the added benefit of having those issues known and behind behind you, your call was still weaker. That knowledge would have been a pretty big help to you, I'd think, nonetheless, you still came up with a weaker call. By every measure except your special cherry picked one--which no one cares about but you--my call was a better call than yours, and it was the best and most useful call any of us made, including you. I hope it made some people some money, as it did me, and I hope it was ahead of the game enough and useful to people that it might have encouraged them from selling out in a panic back in Dec of 08'--for it sure looked bleak. At the end of the day it was nothing short of very good advise. A lot of people appreciated the dialog at time, and many still do and the dialog continues elsewhere, which is obvious to everyone and must bug the hell out of you. In fact appears this advice may have even been helpful to you making your call.

Even if your call was a real call at all.

In fact, as far as I see it you've not even made yet one prediction--as predictions require the courage to be ahead of the game and offer rational basis for why others might expect your prediction might be valid and not just mere fantasy. What you offered up wasn't even a prediction--As I see it you wished. You merely wished. Your wish was fulfilled. You offered no analysis as to why, of course, that would require courage and subject one's thoughts to scrutiny, which is some thing that some people enjoy evading. It's convenient for sure. You might even have to look at some of the fundamental issues that face our society squarely. That might scare you. You might develop a sudden interest in growing sweet potatoes if you did look at things squarely. That would probably be irritating to you.

Thank you Rob, for the opportunity to defend the record. I know this sort of thing tests everyone's patience. I'm done. I promise. Old Paul can have the last word. I'm certain no one cares. I certainly don't. My only axe I have to grind is that we're going to have to work together with much more honesty and integrity--emphasis on work--if we're going to make any progress in dealing with the issues headed our way. Right or wrong, agree or no, I hope that attitude comes through clear. Idiotic rivalries like this one get in the way of that and poison our society. My goal with this whole Paul deal isn't so much to defend myself or set the record straight rather than to expose a core cause of divisiveness. Maybe that's constructive. Maybe not.

Here's a prediction and an attempt to be both local and constructive: The State of Hawaii will experience even greater budgetary constraints than last year. This will be the case for these primary reasons. 1)There's been no recovery in the broad sector of the economy that can provide the needed revenue to support the existing services, 2) the real cost of providing those services will
increase, and 3) A lot of people are caught up ideological fetishes and wishing--and not a few of these are in government, where they craft policy and budgets in a complete atmosphere of fantasy and cherry picked data. Rather than stupid discussions like this one we need to start thinking as a community about how we're going to fill in the gaps.

In fact I'll just restate the same thing I said here: A year and a half ago. The trend continues.

http://www.punaweb.org/Forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=6057&whichpage=4



http://sensiblesimplicity.lefora.com/

[PaulW]

Good point about the election and the bailouts but then how come the other two players in the thread at the time, with the same information, predicted that the Dow would go down, and massively at that? If you thought my prediction was so weak, why didn't you say so at the time? Always easy in retrospect.

I had plenty of rational reasons for making my predictions but one can have endless discussions about whether the reasons are valid or not. No need for that if you just put your money where your mouth is and make a prediction that is easily testable. Did the Dow top 10,000? Yes. Did it bottom out at 7000? No.

PS "advice" is the noun, "advise" is the verb

I predict in 2010: most people will yet again have no interest in potato farming

[chrisb483]

808,

You said: "I suspected you were a closet authoritarian because you write like one. you do no write like a person who wants freedom. you are just ANTI,"

This is he most simple way I can put my response; I want people to be free, I just do not want people to be free to take away another person's freedom. So that is the question to myself, "Are my actions taking away from another person's freedom?"

You were so obviously trying to take me down that path so I had to let you go for it. This was my trap for you all along to exhibit your superficial understanding of anarchism.

I did not say "I" would be the authority. I did not say a leader would, that a majority would, or a company would, or a party would, or any one person would be the unquestionable authority. So how does that make me authoritarian?

The only authoritarianism that anarchy disallows is unquestionable and unchangeable authority. For example, if someone yanks a little girl out of the way of a car, that is an authoritarian act, yes? Is it justifiable? Most probably. Is it questionable? Always.

Now, if you were working in a factory, and another man owned that factory, and you went to the boss and said; "Hey, I need to go and take care of my kid today, can I get off now?" and he said; "If you leave, do not come back." What are your options? You say, "Well, I am free to get another job." Well, that depends, doesn't it? It depends if there are other jobs, it depends if your boss did not bad mouth you or not, and on and on.

Under free market capitalism, (yes your capitalism, not this mix of state socialism and state capitalism we have now,) who would be the authority? You? The boss? the monopoly? The market? You see, you are willing to bow to anyone of these as long as they throw you some scraps and tell you you are free. You are unquestioning because they are unquestionable.

You said: "society would build computers, but it takes SPECIALIZATION, and possibly i want to SELL THEM to go get some hamburgers, but if there is no economy i can only TRADE them for something... NOW THAT SUCKS,,,"

I did not say there would not be another means of exchange. I said there would be no economy. In other words there would not be a SYSTEM of production, distribution and consumption of goods and services of an economy. Because that SYSTEM, as it is now, would be the authority. Yes, anarchism has can have an economic system, but it is so different that few of us like to use that term anymore. Because the economy is secondary to life, it does not control our lives.

And if you want to see specialization under anarchism read about the Spanish anarchist revolution. They took over the factories for three years and worked it out fine.

You said; "I understand you are 'Well educated' and have 'dual degrees' good for you... but you make so sense, especially when discussing economic matters…"

Yes, It is like I am speaking calculus to someone who just learned to multiply.

You said; "I sure wont bow the authority of 'society' if i deem i want to start an economy in your 'anarchist' (if there is authority there is no anarchism) society. I think you are read in the ways of the anarcho socialist and do not realize that IS authoritarianism."

If you listen to your self you will hear the authoritarian in your head. "I don't care about you, I am going to do what ever I want!" You will have to bow to someone in any group of people. I choose the one I can freely question and freely leave. You also assumed I would make you stay in the society. No, you are free to leave. You would not need a passport to enter and you would not be hated for leaving.

And also, all anarchism is socialist.

You said; "again you also completely misunderstand human nature and motivation as well. people are not what you think they are and IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH SOCIETY, to groom and train the self interest out of a human child is to create a robot that a master can control."

I used to be afraid of being conditioned just like you, but I realized there is good conditioning and bad conditioning. Language is conditioning, play is conditioning, love is conditioning. You can even be conditioned to recognize and break the bonds of conditioning.

Conditioning is only as evils as its result.

People have nothing to do with society? That is the most horrifying statement I have heard in years.