Fukushima Radioactive Seawater Computer Model

[SBH]

I was looking for info about the tsunami debris heading eastward in the Pacific and came across a marine consulting firm, ASR, that computer modeled not only the floating debris, but also the radioactive ocean plume from the Fukushima nuclear plant and it's projected path possibly heading towards Hawaii.

Fukushima Radioactive Ocean Impact Map
Contaminated Particle Tracing March 2011- March 2012

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7eh4nBVJTsw&feature=player_embedded

I'm beginning to rethink that poke for lunch or ahi for dinner and wonder what the future holds for our oceans and the life within it and the life it supports, including us.


http://www.asrltd.com/japan/plume.php

http://www.asrltd.com/japan/

http://fukushima-diary.com/

I think aquaponics is a great system for anyone that wants to grow their own fish and veggies and this island has some of the best teachers at Friendly Aquaponics.

http://www.friendlyaquaponics.com/

[PaulW]

That website says:
"THIS IS NOT A REPRESENTATION OF THE RADIOACTIVE PLUME CONCENTRATION" (their caps, not mine) and
"it is impossible to estimate the extent and dilution of the plume" and
"Assuming that a part of the passive biomass could have been contaminated in the area..."

Lots of assumptions and disclaimers.
There is a lot of ocean between us and Japan. The ahi and poke will be fine.

[Carey]

This is a particle debris plume, over ocean currents.

It is also very important to remember that there are different Half Life times associated with different emission isotopes, the 2 most common emission isotopes from Fukushima Daiichi were Iodine 131 (~8 day half life) & Cesium 134 (~2 year half life), added to the dilution potential of the Pacific Ocean. Probably the air plume last year was more to worry about than the ahi next year...
just for those data geeks, link to half life times for different isotopes:
http://www.iem-inc.com/toolhalf.html

[PaulW]

http://www.fda.gov/ucm/groups/fdagov-pub...253896.pdf

"The great quantity of water in the Pacific Ocean rapidly and effectively dilutes radioactive material. Currently, testing of waters approximately 30km (18 miles) off the coast of Japan has shown that the radiation levels have dissipated rapidly, reaching drinking water standards by the 30 km test location. This means that seafood harvested in areas distant from the damaged reactor are unlikely to be affected. "

30km = 20 miles. How far away is Japan from Hawaii? About 3000 miles.  

[hereonearth]

If I understand correctly, that "plume" is based on tracers added to the debris that sent a signal when it came in contact with a radioactive substance. It doesn't mean that it is still radioactive but shows exactly where the ocean currents are carrying them. Still quite disturbing and possibly still radioactive. They are, in their own words,"trying to track where the radionuclides are spreading as it will eventually climb up the food chain." Seems to me that they are concerned about our food supply.

[Carey]

UMMM, Where did you get any information on these TRACERS??? Who added tracers to this debris & when??? I think if you logically think about this, adding "tracers" to the debris was probably not anywhere near the top of the list for anyone involved in this disaster...

The devastation that has happened and will happen from the earthquake/tsunami/reactor failure are bad enough without people making up stuff!

The dispersion graphics that are linked above are based on computer modeling based on the "Lagrangian particles dispersal method to track where free floating material" is carried, this COMPUTER BASED TRAJECTORY modeling is often used for fisheries based studies, including fish larvae, algae, phytoplankton, zooplankton... and the models were derived from assumptions of water released...(these quotes are right from the website that has the computer modeling, and they do not mention any tracers in the methods page...http://www.asrltd.com/japan/plume.php)

For more information on the methods of the multi-trajectory based Lagrangian particles dispersal COMPUTER MODELING program, this data board may help:
http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/worksh...6/P6_2.pdf

BTW: if there were the ability to add these "tracers" don't you think they would have been added to other, slightly more managed disasters that have happened recently?

I am stating this semi obvious fact, as computer modeling is the main tool we have for studying most spill, debris field motions, shipwreck spill plumes & even fisheries management in the ocean... most ocean current 'tracers' are actually using things that are floating, swimming or sinking anyhow, as proxy models for all other things floating, swimming & sinking ...not as elegant as suggested above, but much more in the realm of reality of today.... Believe or not, the debris field is, in itself, creating a great database for ocean current modeling.

[PaulW]

"Seems to me that they are concerned about our food supply."
The FDA isn't.

[SBH]

Yes, I totally trust the FDA to tell me the seafood is safe. I let the government do all my thinking for me. I don't know why I bothered going to college for six years.

http://www.businessinsider.com/seafood-1...ens2011-12

[Bullwinkle]

problem is that filter feeders and plankton will reverse dispersion in my opinion - acting as consolidators if you will....It is never a good idea to release radiation - 12 miles in diameter closed to people after a few days of atmospheric release

Dumping of radioactivity into the ocean by leakage is still continuing today

no one has an accurate count as to how much has been directly released into the ocean - and entering the food chain - Ahi migrates over vast areas and consumes the fishes that fed on the plankton - more consolidation

Fish that migrate through the area should at least be tested before human consumption would be the logical play imho

[P.T.]

Whether or not you trust FDA is one thing.What a regular person cam do -buy expensive gadgets to check the radiation himself?