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Rain forecast for Puna based on the most recent model runs:
GFS
Friday Feb 6th: 1/4"-1"
Friday Feb 13th: 1/4"-1"
ECMWF
Thursday Feb 12th: 1/4"-1/2"
Lots of wind and rain for the west facing shores, but not for us. Sorry
Long range weather forecast for the entire northern hemisphere? This is an incredible situation. The northern jet stream is STUCK. Not just for us, but for everyone. And it isn't looking like it's going to get moving again in the near future. That means Kona winds instead of windward showers for us. But it also mean no rain for California and big winter storms for the northeast.
The difference in temperature between the equator and the north pole is much less than normal. This temperature difference is a primary driver in the eastward progression of weather during our winter.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=nhem&pkg=uv850_vort&runtime=2015020212&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/ipsm_l..._HGT_WINDS
http://www.theguardian.com/news/2013/jul...ate-change
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMas...rynum=2665
Our climate is changing in front right of our eyes!
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quote:
Originally posted by harryd
Rain forecast for Puna based on the most recent model runs:
GFS
Friday Feb 6th: 1/4"-1"
Friday Feb 13th: 1/4"-1"
ECMWF
Thursday Feb 12th: 1/4"-1/2"
Lots of wind and rain for the west facing shores, but not for us. Sorry
Long range weather forecast for the entire northern hemisphere? This is an incredible situation. The northern jet stream is STUCK. Not just for us, but for everyone. And it isn't looking like it's going to get moving again in the near future. That means Kona winds instead of windward showers for us. But it also mean no rain for California and big winter storms for the northeast.
The difference in temperature between the equator and the north pole is much less than normal. This temperature difference is a primary driver in the eastward progression of weather during our winter.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=nhem&pkg=uv850_vort&runtime=2015020212&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/ipsm_l..._HGT_WINDS
http://www.theguardian.com/news/2013/jul...ate-change
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMas...rynum=2665
Our climate is changing in front right of our eyes!
It seems like Puna has been having some "unpredicted" rain where the weather service predicted very little or no rain and we got it anyway. My theory is we getting this rain in part because the brush fires have been creating particulate rich clouds that otherwise would not cause rain, but do because we have had so much smoke adding to the particulate. Microclimates in action.
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Thanks for the update Harry and welcome back!? (knee v2.0 or just a minor rev patch?)
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quote:
Originally posted by harryd
Long range weather forecast for the entire northern hemisphere? This is an incredible situation. The northern jet stream is STUCK. Not just for us, but for everyone. And it isn't looking like it's going to get moving again in the near future.
Actually the first two links show the jet stream is currently moving fairly well, not at all like the "stuck" situation from 2013 in the other two. The partial exception is southern California and the southwest, which seems to have a persistent high pushing it to the north.
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Midnight Rambler. I didn't mean that the jet stream itself was stuck, but rather that perturbations in long wave pattern of the jet stream is stuck. Low pressure in the northern Pacific, high pressure along the intermountain region, low pressure over the Atlantic states, then high pressure in the eastern Atlantic. This general pattern should oscillate every 7-10 days, but it's been 3 weeks, with another 3 weeks forecast.
But, maybe I've missed something? Could you please elaborate
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Day after day of beautiful weather here in Eden Roc. Rain a week or two ago filled my catchment tank. I could get used to this except for the increased vog. I didn't detect any vog the last couple of days nor do I today. I was expecting to. What direction is the wind from and who is getting nailed?
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Currently the winds are out of the SW. This direction brings Vog to the Eastern side of the Big Island;
http://weather.hawaii.edu/vmap/hysplit/
You can also see this looking at the sky. Reduced visibilities are evident. The sky is not as blue as when the trades blow. Hazy on the horizon and overhead.
I agree that the long wave weather pattern is in a stagnant position but the perturbations are not stuck and will bring flooding rain to Northern Calif. this weekend;
http://www.weatherwest.com/
You can see them moving around here;
http://wxmaps.org/pix/NHanim.html
The difference in air temperatures between the Equator and the North Pole are always the highest during the Northern Hemisphere Winter. The Equator's temp over the ocean stays about the same all year but the North Pole gets very cold during it's 6 months of darkness;
http://www.athropolis.com/sun-fr.htm
It is a little above normal air temps in the Arctic, but it is still well below freezing;
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Finally Climate Change has happened every single day of Earth's 4.5 billion year history. If it didn't change that would be alarming.
PS Watch out for a strong frontal passage next Tues. We could get high winds and heavy rain then.
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I do see some haze in the distance and this makes sense. I am just surprised that it is not lots worse. There have been days here in Eden Roc where the haze was quite visible over short distances like across my yard, but that has not been the case in the last couple of days. I am just wondering who is paying the price for my good fortune.
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This current weather pattern is the same as 15 to 20 years ago.
We should start getting regular trade wind showers in March .
