Hurricane Season 2019

[alaskyn66]

With hurricane season starting a couple weeks from now, I had to look up the predictions.

https://www.khon2.com/news/local-news/ex...1981890672

[TomK]

Alaskyn - any chance you can change the thread to "Hurricane Season 2019"? Similar threads have been created for the last three or four years and means there's one thread to go to and it makes it easier for everyone to keep track of things. Thanks!

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Do you consult the NOAA websites, including their hurricane pages for your summer hurricane season forecasts? Then read on.

President Trump has nominated Barry Myers, the head of AccuWeather, as NOAA Administrator, in charge of the entire organization.. Myers has no experience running an agency the size of NOAA, and worse he has no scientific background. For 20 years he has lobbied the government to restrict NOAA forecasts from being accessible directly to the public, so Americans would find it necessary to watch “value added” private companies like AccuWeather.

Conflict of interest?
In the public’s best interest?

Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) called Myers a “questionable choice” to lead NOAA. “Mr. Myers will have to work very hard to persuade me that he will run NOAA for the public good,” Schatz said. “[H]e will also need to explain why his service as NOAA Administrator will not violate conflict of interest rules and regulations.”
https://oceanleadership.org/trump-taps-a...cientists/

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

The nomination of Barry Myers for NOAA Administrator will be voted on by the US Senate. You can call or email our Senators and voice your opinion on NOAA, hurricane forecasts, Myer’s qualifications or lack thereof at:

Brian Schatz: https://www.schatz.senate.gov/contact
Mazie Hirono: https://www.hirono.senate.gov/contact

[terracore]

There really is no point in contacting Schatz or Hirono because they have already stated that they will vote against Myers.

The article posted above is from 2017 and not up to date. The nominee has (reportedly) divested himself from any connection to AccuWeather. But like all political appointees we can take that with a grain of sea salt.

I don't know that he for "20 years he has lobbied the government to restrict NOAA forecasts from being accessible directly to the public". I understood that he lobbied for some functions be privatized, much like most of the government including NASA has done over the last few decades to reduce the massive losses of tax dollars caused by government bureaucracy and inefficiency. Future NOAA satellites will be built by private companies and launched on private rockets regardless of who the senate confirms. If there are other cost savings to be had by reducing government corruption and inefficiency then these ideas should be explored.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

I don't know that he for "20 years he has lobbied the government to restrict NOAA forecasts from being accessible directly to the public".

From USA Today (some sources Myers has tried for 30 years, not 20 years to restrict public access to taxpayer funded NOAA forecasts):
For years, Myers unsuccessfully lobbied Congress to limit free public dissemination of weather service information, so as not to take business from private weather concerns. Then he got picked to run NOAA.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2...547658002/


The article posted above (oceanleadership link) is from 2017 and not up to date.

Here’s an article from a month ago. His personal conflicts of interest have only become worse:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2...84d893aba8


Future NOAA satellites will be built by private companies and launched on private rockets regardless of who the senate confirms. If there are other cost savings to be had by reducing government corruption and inefficiency

Satellites already are, and have been forever, an assembly of private companies building the various components, even top secret spy satellites. As John Glenn, the first American astronaut in orbit noted:
“... getting ready to launch and knew you were sitting on top of 2 million parts — all built by the lowest bidder on a government contract.”
Satellites are already made at the lowest possible cost.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Returning to the OP’s original comments about early predictions for the 2019 hurricane season, I found the article linked below. Much of the info concerns the Atlantic hurricane season, but the El Niño in the Pacific is a concern for us as it keeps ocean temps warmer the usual. Here are some of the indicators forecasters will watch for throughout the summer and fall:

During the past several months, El Niño conditions have developed in the Pacific Ocean, meaning that sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropics are warmer than normal.

Predicting changes in El Niño is extremely difficult during the spring season, so although we know there’s an El Niño now, we don’t know whether it will continue through the rest of the year. Very small changes in wind conditions can cause big changes in the ocean circulation at this time of year. Consequently, the models that forecast El Niño tend to have less skill, which is the measure of the accuracy of the prediction vs. what really happens. Nevertheless, these models do have modest ability to predict conditions for the next several months.

The latest suite guidance indicates a relatively high chance that El Niño will continue through the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season (August through October). Colorado State agrees with the majority of these models and anticipates El Niño conditions will persist through this year’s hurricane season.

How good are the forecasts?

April’s is the first forecast issued by Colorado State each year. These forecasts are then updated June 4, July 2 and Aug. 6. The forecast skill increases closer to the peak of the season. The April forecast shows modest skill, while the June, July and August forecasts show improved skill levels.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2...a08b78c5cc

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

An updated forecast from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center was announced today.
They expect an above average season of 5-8 hurricanes:

NOAA forecasters said they are predicting five to eight tropical cyclones.
Chris Brenchley, director of NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center, said there’s a 70 percent chance of an above-average season, a 20 percent chance of a normal season — four to five tropical cyclones per season — and a 10 percent chance of a below-average season.
“The time to prepare for hurricane season is right now,” Brenchley said.
https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2019/05/22...l-pacific/

[Carey]

Information links for future reference:
National Hurricane Center - Central Pacific
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpac

NOAA Tropical Pacific Visible Loop (you can click on things like SST for the Sea Surface Temperatures)
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/...p-vis.html

NOAA Tropical Pacific Water Vapor Loop (shows water in the atmosphere -also with nice click-ables)
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/h5-loop-wv.html

ETA: Of course, everyone here should have a "to-go" pack with essentials (including cash for days of no electronic banking, small kine bills) for many days, not only easy-to-grab at home, but also in your vehicle(s) & work....just in case...
Lots of resources to look for what to pack, inc. Red Cross & HELCO... most important is to make the pack..

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Thanks Carey,
I’d like to add a few more web resources:

GOES 17 - http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-17

Satellite wind, wave, precipital water - http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

Spaghetti Models - https://www.cyclocane.com/spaghetti-models/