Death Percent

[sistersue]

I don't understand how anyone can know what the true death percent of this virus is if 82% of infected people don't even know they have it because their symptoms are so mild.

[Guest]

And therein lies the rub, doesn't it?

Without broad testing, something only authoritarian regimes would consider an appropriate response to a crisis like this, we will not know until long after that kind of data is pertinent. As it is now.

I think the old adage, hope for the best but plan for the worse is appropriate until we have more, real, information.

And, at this point, with as little as we know and how devastating this seems it could be.. wow! I hope you, Sue, and everyone else, is safe..

[Mangosteen]

This is the latest update from the Center for Disease Control in Washington DC, Read it. It says the vast majority of people who get the virus are only moderately effected and recover with no ill effects. It is the elderly and ill of health that are at risk. The rest of us will do just fine even if one catches the virus. The CDC says up to 52,000 people have DIED from the Common Flu THIS season and the Media wants you to panic about a dozen or so elderly deaths from COVID 19. Death percentages don't matter. Who are the people dying? How old were they? Did they have pre existing conditions?Relax:
//www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0309-covid-19-update.html
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/pre...kZialcm-gc

[jrw]

They says 10 times more then the flu witch is less then.1 percent so it should make less then 1 percent

jrw

[Guest]

This is the latest update from the Center for Disease Control in Washington DC..

Are you really willing to believe anything the Trump administration says? Really?

Do you want real numbers?

Go to: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard...7b48e9ecf6

Go everyday.. the growth rate is staggering.

[jrw]

quote:

---

Originally posted by hokuili

This is the latest update from the Center for Disease Control in Washington DC..

Are you really willing to believe anything the Trump administration says? Really?

Do you want real numbers?

Go to: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard...7b48e9ecf6

Go everyday.. the growth rate is staggering.

---

There is over billion of people on this earth and 130000 people affect do your percecent

jrw

[tgalarneau]

I'd like to know where you got your statistic "82% of infected people don't even know they have it".

One can't get this number without knowing total number of infections, which without wide spread testing is not available.

82% may or not be right, just like any other random number pulled from the internet.


From today's statistics :

Of confirmed infections and deaths - mortality rate is

World 3.7%
China 3.9%
Italy 6.6%
Iran 3.9%
S.Korea 0.8%
France 2.1%
Germany 0.2%
Spain 2.4%
Japan 2.3%
US 3.0%

What we do know is that until there is a vaccine, the human species is unprotected to this new virus and will likely run through a very large percentage of us.

If 30% of our 7 billion on the planet become infected, using the Chinese mortality rate would leave around 82 million dead. Worse than the 50 million would died from the 1918-1920 spanish flu. If we use the 2.3% Japan mortality rate the would result in 44 million dead and this at 30% of the population infected. Many epidemiologists suggest the infection rate will be between 50% - 75% and then the numbers would look a lot worse.

[Mangosteen]

Yes, let's use the China number for accuracy about a virus that attacks the respiratory system. Home of the some of the heaviest smokers and most polluted air on the planet.

If you don't believe the CDC numbers, what makes your numbers any more believable?

[tgalarneau]

Our CDC doesn't even know how many have been tested and without that information, it is impossible to know total number of cases let alone mortality rate. So there numbers can only be guess work.

The Chinese have had 80,000 confirmed cases and vary harsh measures and controls that give them better info than the few cases reported by the CDC. Unless one assumes they are misleading the world.

Of course, these numbers probably lack the "infected that don't have symptoms". That is why health officials have used the 2% mortality rate instead of the 3.9% reported. And this number is in line with a new type of influenza, such as the mortality rate of the 1918 flu.

[ironyak]

I'm not sure my thoughts count for much, but I feel obligated to try and explain some of the numbers.

The current data coming out of Italy is that the MEDIAN age in Intensive Care there is 65. That means half the people in ICU are under 65 and half are over 65. This is not just a old person disease (watch the video of the Italian ICU doctor from yesterday - there are kids in their 20's having to be intubated).
https://twitter.com/V2019N/status/1237466553613840384

the vast majority of people who get the virus are only moderately effected
80% of people would have mild to moderate effects which is everything short of requiring hospitalization. 2-3 weeks of pneumonia is considered just a moderate effect. The other 20% requires hospitalization for which there are not enough beds, doctors, nurses, or ventilators available if even a moderate percentage of the population gets sick at the same time.

recover with no ill effects
This disease is 3 months old - what the long terms effects are, if any, is obviously unknowable. There are already recommendations for follow-ups to track possible long term lung damage (like seen with the previous SARS virus)

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20...142018.htm
"Ultimately, the authors of this AJR article recommended CT for follow-up in patients recovering from COVID-19 to evaluate long-term or even permanent pulmonary damage, including fibrosis -- as seen in SARS and MERS infections."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/top-fede...he-us.html
"Fauci said COVID-19 is at least 10 times more lethal than the seasonal flu"

That means we could see AT LEAST 10 years worth of flu deaths from this (~120,000 to 610,000 deaths) on top of the usual flu deaths. If it's "just the flu", it could be the worst flu season BY FAR in many decades.

It is the elderly and ill of health that are at risk.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...ographics/
Yes, the elderly and ill at health are more at risk of dying (from 1 in 30 people aged 60-69 dying to about 1 in 8 people aged 80+.) Do you know 30 people above the age of 60? This means one or more of them are likely to die from this if they get infected.

That does not mean young people don't die. For every 1000 teenagers that get this, about 2 of them will die. That is true for every age group up to 40 at which point it starts to go up.

I'm not sure if all this helps or not, but it seems wise for everyone to pay attention to this outbreak, if not for your own health, then perhaps at least for the lives of the most vulnerable in our community?