Watching the earthquake swarm?

[dobanion]

Anybody else watching with anticipation the latest swarm on Kilauea? It's not in the crater this time, it's south of the rim. Almost looking like a vent could open up right by the southern viewing area off of crater rim drive.

Hawaiian Volcano Observatory | U.S. Geological Survey (usgs.gov)

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Thanks dobanion.
From the Hazards page:

The area just south of Kīlauea's summit is currently showing signs of elevated unrest.
Earthquake rates beneath Kīlauea summit region have increased overnight from less than 10 earthquakes per day to over 140 earthquakes in the last 24 hours. 
HVO will issue daily Kīlauea updates from today onward, as long as the elevated activity continues. Additional messages will be issued as needed.

https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hans2/view/no...2:34-07:00

[kalianna]

Yes, I check the earthquakes and tilt meter often. Two day earthquake count went from 17 to 156 over the last couple of days and inflation now is higher than it was before the last eruption.

[terracore]

" The trend of the seismic activity parallels, but is slightly south of the December 1974 eruption vents. "

What happened in '74?

Oh... this?

https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/kilaue...t-eruption

[MyManao]

inflation now is higher than it was before the last eruption.

A few things to keep in mind.. the tilt trace is relative.. not absolute.. not tied to anything.. and gets offset by earthquakes regularly..

And, after the 1984 eruption, Mauna Loa reinflated, beyond what it was before the start of that eruption, by the middle of the 1990s, yet didn't erupt until decades later.

[kalianna]

So what are your thoughts about this recent activity, My Manao? I didnʻt even know what a tiltmeter was until your posts during the Leilani eruption. Iʻm still grateful for all the info you posted during that time.

[MyManao]

what are your thoughts about this recent activity..

I'm kinda thinking it's some sort of blockage between the deeper, more southerly, main summit magma body and the shallower in the caldera itself Halemaumau magma body. The swarm of the quakes seems to outline the conduit between the two bodies. And the tilt is erratic.. keeping in mind that tilt station is on the northwest side of the summit caldera and as such isn't 'seeing' the deeper body directly but rather has that shallower body in the way.. so the roller coaster ride of the last few days could be a mix of things.

Another thing worth noting is some research suggests some sort of valve.. some sort of plastic (ie solid but deformable) structure.. that opens and closes in that passage between the two magma bodies. That model has been proposed when trying to model the DID events, those down and back up signals that the tilt record is full of. I'm not a strong believer in that model, and yet the notion lingers. And if so then it's easy to imagine that structure blocking flow temporarily.

Also worth noting is I think this swarm is pau. At least it seems to have run out of steam for the time being.

[kalianna]

Thanks. Itʻs still pretty active right now. Weʻll see.

[Chas]

I went up to the park today. They had everything around the chain of craters road/crater rim drive area closed with fire dept trucks nearby. Devastation, Pu u Puahi, the area of crater rim drive you used to be able to walk down.

Just now read this on the HVO site: "As a precaution during this heightened state, the following areas are closed: Puʻupuai Overlook, Devastation Trail, Keanakākoʻi and Old Crater Rim Drive, Crater Rim Trail to Keanakākoʻi, Hilina Pali Road, Kulanaokuaiki, Mauna Iki Trail, Kaʻū Desert Trail."

That will kind of suck if it doesn't erupt in the crater. I'm sure they won't let you anywhere near it and it may even cut off the roads...

[terracore]

KILAUEA (VNUM #332010)
19°25'16" N 155°17'13" W, Summit Elevation 4091 ft (1247 m)
Current Volcano Alert Level: ADVISORY
Current Aviation Color Code: YELLOW

Activity Summary: Kīlauea volcano is not erupting. The area just south of Kīlauea's summit is showing signs of unrest. No unusual activity has been noted along Kīlauea’s East Rift Zone or Southwest Rift Zone.

Summit Observations: Ground deformation in the area just south of the summit caldera leveled off around 2:00 a.m. with no appreciable changes in the tilt since then. Inflation at the summit of Kīlauea remains close to its highest level in over 5 years and has nearly returned to the level seen just before the last eruption on September 10th. Seismicity beneath Kīlauea summit region, which began October 4, decreased around 2:00 a.m. and remains low at this time. Over the past 24 hours approximately 170 earthquakes were recorded in Kīlauea summit region compared to about 320 earthquakes occuring over the previous day. Most of the earthquakes from the seismic swarm south of the caldera are at depths of around 2.5–3.5 km (1.5–2 mi) below the surface. The trend of the seismic activity parallels, but is slightly south of the December 1974 eruption vents. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rates remain low and were measured at a rate of about 100 tonnes per day on October 6.

Rift Zone Observations: No unusual activity has been noted along the East Rift Zone or Southwest Rift Zone; steady rates of ground deformation and seismicity continue along both. Measurements from continuous gas monitoring stations downwind of Puʻuʻōʻō in the middle East Rift Zone—the site of 1983–2018 eruptive activity—remain below detection limits for SO2, indicating that SO2 emissions from Puʻuʻōʻō are negligible.

Hazard Analysis: Levels of volcanic gas (sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide) can remain locally hazardous even though Kīlauea is no longer erupting. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas emissions have greatly decreased; however, local concentrations of sulfur dioxide (SO2) or hydrogen sulfide (H2S) may persist in downwind areas, and residents may notice odors of these gases occasionally. Significant hazards also remain around Halemaʻumaʻu from crater wall instability, ground cracking, and rockfalls that can be enhanced by earthquakes within the area closed to the public. For discussion of Kīlauea hazards, please see: https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hawai...ry/hazards.

The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) continues to closely monitor Kīlauea volcano.

Next Notice: HVO will issue daily Kīlauea updates. Additional messages will be issued as needed.

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Well the earthquakes might have leveled off but our dogs are acting strange this AM.