Real Estate Decline

[Aaron S]

Real estate market decline in West Hawaii ? There was interesting article
in WHT about this today. It goes to show that we are simply too dependant
on tourism and construction,here in Hawaii.

http://www.westhawaiitoday.com/articles/...ocal03.txt

[John S. Rabi]

The article is a good example of people making statements even though they have no clue. They all talk about decline and bubble but the median prices actually increased everywhere but North Kohala since last April!

Aloha,
John S. Rabi, ABR,CM,CRB,FHS,PB,RB
http://www.JohnRabi.com
Typically Tropical Properties
75-5870 Walua Road, Suite 101
Kailua-Kona, HI 96740
(808)327-3185

[Aaron S]

I was a bit surprised by the "sky is falling"
tone of the article to be honest.I don't think
the article really covered the issue accurately.

[Lee DeJongh]

Interesting article. It states that the median sale price declined. And they give the figures to prove it. That is the price at which half the sales were lower and half higher. That could mean that there were fewer highrollers buying and that high priced properties are harder to sell but that lower priced properties are not. Withoout looking at the individual data including number of sales, it's hard to be sure. Number of sales is very important because a single high price sale can rachet the median up considerably, especially if few sales.

This is not Hawaii but around here that is certainly true. Houses on my street sell in 7 days. Why? because they are affordable and the neighborhood is nice. If you get above 400,000 here it can take a long time. There is currently a house on the market for over a million which has been for sale for years.

Looking at the market on Maui there are multimillion dollar properties that have been on the market for at least a couple of years.

[Lee DeJongh]

john's right. the data show the median price has increased like he said.

[radioguy]

If you make a chart of the data from Hawaiiinfomation.com for the last two years, you will see in one month almost a 20% decline in the median home price between sept. and oct. of 2005. In the last 7 months since the "correction", prices have returned to within $8000 of the all time high of Sept. 2005. Around Sept of 2005 was when investors and flippers began to exit the market everywhere. It's interesting that prices recovered in just 7 months. People have a different perspective on real estate depending on where you are from. If you look at the Los Angeles MLS on the web, you will see horrible , dump houses for sale for $750,000.00. East Big Island is still way under priced. The house I bought in HPP for less than $400k would be, no joke, (because it's near the water) 2 million dollars in Los Angeles. Of course, you have to love frogs!
Buying a house in HPP is like traveling back in time to 1980 California real estate prices. For that reason, East Hawaii will see a influx of buyers for quite some time. However, I think we are at the top of the market for a few years, where prices will hold steady, say plus or minus 5%, and then we will see a return to 10% increase per year, every year.

[Hotzcatz]

Take a hypothetical list of twenty houses sold in Hawaii (or Iowa, where doesn't really matter). "Median" price is the price of the house at number ten on that list. "Average" price is if you total up the prices of all the houses sold and then divide that by the number of houses sold.

I presume the list will be sorted in order of price, but the houses on that list will go from condos to estates. If eleven condos sell and nine estates, then our "median" house prices will probably be significantly different from the "average" house price.

However, I haven't read the article yet, so maybe the whole thing is moot.

A hui hou,
Cathy

[miketat]

I think the most important thing right now is, that it is a good time to buy. Not because of the price, but because the volume of sales has decreased dramatically. So people tend to sit on their houses for a longer time. If they are already paying for another house or are in need of money for some other reason, they will be more inclined to negotiate. That will give you more leverage as a buyer and probably a better deal in terms and pricing. Highly motivated sellers might even pay the closing cost right now.

michael
http://www.punaguide.com

[wyatt]

Judging from the prices things sold for at the tax lien sale in Hilo this week it is hard to believe there is any decline.

Wyatt

[John S. Rabi]

Yep, the frenzy is still there and it seems people believe the Puna properties are still undervalued.

Aloha,
John S. Rabi, ABR,CM,CRB,FHS,PB,RB
http://www.JohnRabi.com
Typically Tropical Properties
75-5870 Walua Road, Suite 101
Kailua-Kona, HI 96740
(808)327-3185