01-06-2011, 11:41 AM
Here are the predictions from January 2010 for Hawaii in 2010,
let's see how we did (feel free to disagree or discuss but try to keep it Hawaii and please no bumper sticker slogans)
The prediction thread for 2010 is here:
http://www.punaweb.org/Forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=9889
(warning, lots of nonsense; predictions are summarised at the end)
Note that if I say "Incorrect" I'm saying it as a matter of(preceived) fact, it's not an attack on you and yours (see last year). Feel free to dispute with facts and figures or reasoned argument.
1.
KathyH (01/02/10) :
"I predict that the wave of foreclosures will continue"
http://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/news/...emain.html
"Hawaii statewide saw no year-over-year change in foreclosure filings
last month, but the Neighbor Islands each saw their numbers drop.
Kauai’s foreclosure filings in November fell 19 percent from the same
month in 2009, while Maui saw a 10 percent decrease and the Big
Island’s numbers fell 7 percent."
I would mark this one correct. They did fall 7% but that still leaves 93%.
2.
John Rabi (01/02/10) :
"The REO properties will dry up and the real estate market will rebound after that."
My non-expert opinion is that the Puna real estate market hasn't rebounded.
Feel free to disagree.
3.
"If you bet on the stock market, go with the emerging markets, those stocks are the first ones to
take off in a recovery."
In retrospect that's advice, not a prediction. The MXEF (Emerging
Market) index fund went up about 10% in 2010.
4.
mdd7000 (01/02/10):
"My prediction - worsening foreclosures in 2010 with a slight bump in real estate sales in Spring due
to pent up demand - going flat or lower for the rest of 2010."
See 1. Incorrect. Foreclosures are slightly down.
5.
>Kapohocat (01/02/10):
"Rush Limbaugh will make a change to his format after his heart attack in Hawaii. We will find out he
is gay with a wife who has been running his show and funding anonymously domestic violence prevention
programs."
Incorrect. Or he's keeping it very quiet!
6.
"The mystery of the grassy knoll will be solved now that the people involved are over 75 and playing golf in Kona or at lifecare in Hilo."
Nope.
7.
"We will have a democrat as governor at the end of this year in Hawaii."
Yes! Well done! How did you know??
8.
"We will find a way to use methane from compost as an alternative fuel for cars in Puna."
Not that I've noticed.
9.
holahan (01/03/10):
"real estate will still be flat"
I think that is correct.
10.
"my prediction would be that unemployment will end the year at 8% or so."
http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/Global/stor...S=13558224 (Nov 24 2010)
says that unemployment on the Big Island was 9.3%.
11.
"i would guess that it [Dow] will end the year around 12,500 barring some unforeseen terror attack or catastrophic natural disaster."
Dow ended the year on 11,578 so I would count that as correct (I'm
giving you a 1000 point range)
12.
"interest rates, tax increases and inflation are sure to come and will most likely halt the economic
recovery"
Incorrect. Interest rates are steady, inflation is down and taxes are
not up (as far as I know).
13.
whalesong: (01/03/10)
"Congress will get their pink slip and our printing press, the Federal Reserve will be audited and
their doors will close. This will be the year the monoploy money ends and only a few, will have access to credit! We will see more and more tent cities, homelessness, less social programs, less
food available."
Congress and the Fed are still going strong. Hard to measure tent
cities. Seems to be plenty of food. Overall: Incorrect.
14.
Dave M (01/03/10) :
"My prediction is simple... They're going to tank the dollar this year and by this time next year we'll be in great discussion over currencies etc.. Countries are and will continue to drop the dollar
as their international exchange currency as well."
People keep predicting the demise of the dollar (see last year) but it still refuses
to happen. Incorrect.
15.
808blogger (01/03/10) :
"Real estate will decline in real terms, (if a nominal increase may occur, but that is when consumer prices will be rocketing)"
If you mean vs dollars: not sure. If you mean vs gold: yes.
16.
"Increase in consumer prices"
Correct. It went up by 1%.
17.
"Military intervention in yemen / africa"
Not Hawaii-related but Incorrect.
18.
"unemployement will increase after the first quarter again"
Incorrect
19.
"the dollar index will reach new lows"
Incorrect
20.
"gold will continue to hit new highs"
Correct
21.
"The Audit the fed bill will be passed"
Incorrect (unless I missed something)
22.
"we will also have another "domestic incidents" in re: to a certain tactic we have a war on."
Incorrect
23.
"the commercial real estate market will further decay"
I'm not sure.
24.
pslamont (01/04/10) :
"Country style smarts will continue to increase in value. Those that plant effective gardens, orchards, etc... will not only provide for themselves but provide for neighbors."
Difficult to quantify.
25.
"Barter will become more and more prevalent"
Not that I've noticed.
26.
"Make Do will be a more standardized concept. Repair instead of replace will be the norm for more and more people. Much of this "business" will be off the books for taxes and such."
Not that I've noticed.
27.
"Local taxes will rise. The rest of the country is used to 6-8% sales tax. Hawaii will have to give in and take the plunge to balance the budget."
Incorrect
28.
"Crime will continue to rise as the welfare generation, with its attitude of entitlement (the world owes me...) will take what they feel should be theirs without concern for those who have worked to
"get"."
Not sure; I thought crime was down.
29.
PaulW (01/04/10) :
"Hawaii unemployment will go down"
Incorrect!
30.
"Puna real estate values will go up"
Incorrect
31.
"Dow will go up; I'll guess 13,000"
Did go up but not anywhere near that far. Incorrect.
32.
"County Council will pass a resolution saying there is insufficient evidence that a man has walked on the Moon"
Incorrect (the vaccine resolution was a hot topic at the time)
33.
"still no change on Highway 130"
Correct
34.
"still no broadband in large areas of Puna, even densely populated parts of HPP"
Correct
35.
Greg (01/04/10) :
"I predict Brett Favre will win the Superbowl MVP."
Incorrect
36.
kabloink (01/04/10) :
"alcohol sales will remain strong"
Correct
37.
Rob Tucker (01/04/10) :
"I predict that when the Woodland Center opens in Pahoa Village traffic will become much, much worse at that intersection."
Correct? (I don't go there much)
38.
Samdooby (01/05/10) :
"My prediction is that John Rabi will update that cheesy looking photo on his website..."
Incorrect (for the 16th year running)
39.
csgray (01/05/10) :
"Twitter becomes old news used only by a few obsessive compulsives who need to stay plugged in 24/7 due to it getting overloaded with so much commercial content that people quit using it as a form of
communication."
Incorrect
40.
808blogger (01/05/10) :
"1. YOUR HOUSE WILL BE WORTH LESS IN GOLD THIS DATE NEXT YEAR THAN IT IS WORTH IN GOLD TODAY"
Correct - gold has gone up and real estate not (as much)
41.
"2. THE DOW WILL BE WORTH LESS IN GOLD THIS DATE NEXT YEAR THAN IT IS WORTH IN GOLD TODAY "
Correct
42.
Wao nahele kane (01/05/10) :
"A high probability the Federal Government will bankrupt irreparably, the U.S. monetary system will collapse and agricultural products will be amongst the few things having any value, greater than that of gold, petroleum, luxury products and residential/commercial real estate."
Incorrect
43.
PaulW (01/06/10) :
"I predict marijuana will not be decriminalized in Hawaii in 2010."
Correct
44.
"an increase in tourist numbers for the Big Island"
I think this is correct but I can't find numbers.
45.
>"most people will yet again have no interest in potato farming"
Correct
46.
Wao nahele kane (01/06/10) :
"the cesspool will be removed from the list of allowed waste handling systems in Hawaii."
Incorrect (as far as I know)
47.
808blogger (01/07/10) :
"1. i predict the new pahoa longs will have a hard time keeping itself nice inside"
Anyone?
48.
"2. the spot where punatic cafe was will stay empty"
I haven't looked lately. Is it?
49.
chris483 (01/07/10) :
"I predict Hawaii will be a horrible place to live on December 31, 2010, economically and socially. [...] There will be 18% unemployment and civil unrest and a rash of property crime that you have not seen before."
Incorrect on all counts.
Summary:
Life continued pretty much as we know it. The country didn't go
bankrupt. The dollar didn't disappear. No "named storm" hit the island.
Thanks for playing and please make your Hawaii-related predictions for 2011 here:
http://www.punaweb.org/Forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=11784
let's see how we did (feel free to disagree or discuss but try to keep it Hawaii and please no bumper sticker slogans)
The prediction thread for 2010 is here:
http://www.punaweb.org/Forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=9889
(warning, lots of nonsense; predictions are summarised at the end)
Note that if I say "Incorrect" I'm saying it as a matter of(preceived) fact, it's not an attack on you and yours (see last year). Feel free to dispute with facts and figures or reasoned argument.
1.
KathyH (01/02/10) :
"I predict that the wave of foreclosures will continue"
http://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/news/...emain.html
"Hawaii statewide saw no year-over-year change in foreclosure filings
last month, but the Neighbor Islands each saw their numbers drop.
Kauai’s foreclosure filings in November fell 19 percent from the same
month in 2009, while Maui saw a 10 percent decrease and the Big
Island’s numbers fell 7 percent."
I would mark this one correct. They did fall 7% but that still leaves 93%.
2.
John Rabi (01/02/10) :
"The REO properties will dry up and the real estate market will rebound after that."
My non-expert opinion is that the Puna real estate market hasn't rebounded.
Feel free to disagree.
3.
"If you bet on the stock market, go with the emerging markets, those stocks are the first ones to
take off in a recovery."
In retrospect that's advice, not a prediction. The MXEF (Emerging
Market) index fund went up about 10% in 2010.
4.
mdd7000 (01/02/10):
"My prediction - worsening foreclosures in 2010 with a slight bump in real estate sales in Spring due
to pent up demand - going flat or lower for the rest of 2010."
See 1. Incorrect. Foreclosures are slightly down.
5.
>Kapohocat (01/02/10):
"Rush Limbaugh will make a change to his format after his heart attack in Hawaii. We will find out he
is gay with a wife who has been running his show and funding anonymously domestic violence prevention
programs."
Incorrect. Or he's keeping it very quiet!
6.
"The mystery of the grassy knoll will be solved now that the people involved are over 75 and playing golf in Kona or at lifecare in Hilo."
Nope.
7.
"We will have a democrat as governor at the end of this year in Hawaii."
Yes! Well done! How did you know??
8.
"We will find a way to use methane from compost as an alternative fuel for cars in Puna."
Not that I've noticed.
9.
holahan (01/03/10):
"real estate will still be flat"
I think that is correct.
10.
"my prediction would be that unemployment will end the year at 8% or so."
http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/Global/stor...S=13558224 (Nov 24 2010)
says that unemployment on the Big Island was 9.3%.
11.
"i would guess that it [Dow] will end the year around 12,500 barring some unforeseen terror attack or catastrophic natural disaster."
Dow ended the year on 11,578 so I would count that as correct (I'm
giving you a 1000 point range)
12.
"interest rates, tax increases and inflation are sure to come and will most likely halt the economic
recovery"
Incorrect. Interest rates are steady, inflation is down and taxes are
not up (as far as I know).
13.
whalesong: (01/03/10)
"Congress will get their pink slip and our printing press, the Federal Reserve will be audited and
their doors will close. This will be the year the monoploy money ends and only a few, will have access to credit! We will see more and more tent cities, homelessness, less social programs, less
food available."
Congress and the Fed are still going strong. Hard to measure tent
cities. Seems to be plenty of food. Overall: Incorrect.
14.
Dave M (01/03/10) :
"My prediction is simple... They're going to tank the dollar this year and by this time next year we'll be in great discussion over currencies etc.. Countries are and will continue to drop the dollar
as their international exchange currency as well."
People keep predicting the demise of the dollar (see last year) but it still refuses
to happen. Incorrect.
15.
808blogger (01/03/10) :
"Real estate will decline in real terms, (if a nominal increase may occur, but that is when consumer prices will be rocketing)"
If you mean vs dollars: not sure. If you mean vs gold: yes.
16.
"Increase in consumer prices"
Correct. It went up by 1%.
17.
"Military intervention in yemen / africa"
Not Hawaii-related but Incorrect.
18.
"unemployement will increase after the first quarter again"
Incorrect
19.
"the dollar index will reach new lows"
Incorrect
20.
"gold will continue to hit new highs"
Correct
21.
"The Audit the fed bill will be passed"
Incorrect (unless I missed something)
22.
"we will also have another "domestic incidents" in re: to a certain tactic we have a war on."
Incorrect
23.
"the commercial real estate market will further decay"
I'm not sure.
24.
pslamont (01/04/10) :
"Country style smarts will continue to increase in value. Those that plant effective gardens, orchards, etc... will not only provide for themselves but provide for neighbors."
Difficult to quantify.
25.
"Barter will become more and more prevalent"
Not that I've noticed.
26.
"Make Do will be a more standardized concept. Repair instead of replace will be the norm for more and more people. Much of this "business" will be off the books for taxes and such."
Not that I've noticed.
27.
"Local taxes will rise. The rest of the country is used to 6-8% sales tax. Hawaii will have to give in and take the plunge to balance the budget."
Incorrect
28.
"Crime will continue to rise as the welfare generation, with its attitude of entitlement (the world owes me...) will take what they feel should be theirs without concern for those who have worked to
"get"."
Not sure; I thought crime was down.
29.
PaulW (01/04/10) :
"Hawaii unemployment will go down"
Incorrect!
30.
"Puna real estate values will go up"
Incorrect
31.
"Dow will go up; I'll guess 13,000"
Did go up but not anywhere near that far. Incorrect.
32.
"County Council will pass a resolution saying there is insufficient evidence that a man has walked on the Moon"
Incorrect (the vaccine resolution was a hot topic at the time)
33.
"still no change on Highway 130"
Correct
34.
"still no broadband in large areas of Puna, even densely populated parts of HPP"
Correct
35.
Greg (01/04/10) :
"I predict Brett Favre will win the Superbowl MVP."
Incorrect
36.
kabloink (01/04/10) :
"alcohol sales will remain strong"
Correct
37.
Rob Tucker (01/04/10) :
"I predict that when the Woodland Center opens in Pahoa Village traffic will become much, much worse at that intersection."
Correct? (I don't go there much)
38.
Samdooby (01/05/10) :
"My prediction is that John Rabi will update that cheesy looking photo on his website..."
Incorrect (for the 16th year running)
39.
csgray (01/05/10) :
"Twitter becomes old news used only by a few obsessive compulsives who need to stay plugged in 24/7 due to it getting overloaded with so much commercial content that people quit using it as a form of
communication."
Incorrect
40.
808blogger (01/05/10) :
"1. YOUR HOUSE WILL BE WORTH LESS IN GOLD THIS DATE NEXT YEAR THAN IT IS WORTH IN GOLD TODAY"
Correct - gold has gone up and real estate not (as much)
41.
"2. THE DOW WILL BE WORTH LESS IN GOLD THIS DATE NEXT YEAR THAN IT IS WORTH IN GOLD TODAY "
Correct
42.
Wao nahele kane (01/05/10) :
"A high probability the Federal Government will bankrupt irreparably, the U.S. monetary system will collapse and agricultural products will be amongst the few things having any value, greater than that of gold, petroleum, luxury products and residential/commercial real estate."
Incorrect
43.
PaulW (01/06/10) :
"I predict marijuana will not be decriminalized in Hawaii in 2010."
Correct
44.
"an increase in tourist numbers for the Big Island"
I think this is correct but I can't find numbers.
45.
>"most people will yet again have no interest in potato farming"
Correct
46.
Wao nahele kane (01/06/10) :
"the cesspool will be removed from the list of allowed waste handling systems in Hawaii."
Incorrect (as far as I know)
47.
808blogger (01/07/10) :
"1. i predict the new pahoa longs will have a hard time keeping itself nice inside"
Anyone?
48.
"2. the spot where punatic cafe was will stay empty"
I haven't looked lately. Is it?
49.
chris483 (01/07/10) :
"I predict Hawaii will be a horrible place to live on December 31, 2010, economically and socially. [...] There will be 18% unemployment and civil unrest and a rash of property crime that you have not seen before."
Incorrect on all counts.
Summary:
Life continued pretty much as we know it. The country didn't go
bankrupt. The dollar didn't disappear. No "named storm" hit the island.
Thanks for playing and please make your Hawaii-related predictions for 2011 here:
http://www.punaweb.org/Forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=11784