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http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co...ember.html
In the past case shiller seemed to be a real estate industry forecaster touted by agents and brokers alike.
After weeks of background noise about this issue - here they are forecasting same for public consumption.
In the past a weakness in values on the mainland have led to a weakness in the islands
Ill keep looking on Maui for a rental - but reports like this lead me to believe it may be best to proceed slowly
edit to remove duplicate link
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This is a little worriesome as I just placed an offer on a home.
This is my first short sale and I offered quite a bit below market price. I was told by the listing agent that it is a reasonable offer and will probably be accepted. But now I am wondering if I should hold off for another year? If the dip is only going to be 6-12 months then I will be okay. But if it is going to keep on dipping for another few of years it could be disasterous for my retirement plans. [
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konadave,
Is this house to retire in or an investment? If it is to retire in, I do not see a problem, since you do not care what happens short term. Unless, of course, you had to sell unexpectedly. It also should not really matter for a long-term investment.
Allen
Baton Rouge, LA & HPP
Allen
Finally in HPP
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Allen,
I already have my retirement home over in Ocean View. [
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This is a home to live in for next ~10 years until I retire. The plan for now is to sell it when I move to Ocean View. But if rents are good at that time I may rent it out to supplement my retirement income.
Thanks for your comments! [
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For those who like analysis and stats,
Keeping Current Matters is a real estate blog that I've been following that you might find informative. They often cite Case Shiller. For example, one recent post:
Prices Compared To Historic Trend Lines
Dave, if you're getting a loan, I'm curious how are you feeling about the potential impact of interest rate increases if you hold off for a while? (The "price vs cost" question.) Has that influenced your decision to get into the market now?
Cynthia Hoskins, R(S)
Clark Realty Corporation
www.clarkhawaii.com
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This is a great question and one I have been fighting with for a while. I have questioned numerous people who I respect that is in the real estate market both here in Hawaii and on the mainland. Mostly what I hear and what I have seen is based more on what I have seen recently as no one can really predict what is going to happen that far in the future.
First I have never seen rates go as low as they have. I recently re-financed an investment property and got it at 4.5% including the 3/8% they tack on for just being a rental property. I think that was pretty much at the bottom of the curve. For my home loan I am getting 4.75%. Which is up quite a bit from the bottom. But they have leveled off for now. I believe we will see the rates stay between 4.75% and 5.00% for the next year if our government does the proper things to stimulate the economy and keep inflation in check. Unless of course we see some inflation signs. Unfortunately, I am more of a pessimist than an optimist. I think we are going to start seeing some signs of inflation. We have actually already been seeing them in food prices and in oil prices. The two things that our government removes from their indicators of inflation. So the inflation indicator is staying close to no inflation even though I am seeing it in my wallet.
So to answer your question. I personally think the rates will go above 5.0% because we are going to see some signs of inflation other than the food and oil we are already seeing. Which is only one of many reasons why I decided to jump in now. If I am wrong then as I said above I think the rates will probably bounce between 4.75% and 5.0%.
I believe we are going to see housing prices increase but only marginally over the next year. What I have been seeing is that homes in good neighborhoods (this doesn't mean expensive neighborhoods) are being picked up quickly by both investors and owner-occupants. This includes the foreclosures, short sales and REO's. As long as the property is priced accordingly. I have been watching a VERY nice place in a nice neighborhood just sit there because it is over priced. While properties around it are being snatched up in 30 days or in most cases less.
I hope I answered your question.
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quote:
Originally posted by konadave...
First I have never seen rates go as low as they have... I personally think the rates will go above 5.0%...
I believe we are going to see housing prices increase but only marginally over the next year...
And see to me, we exchange a few dollars sale price for low interest rates - 6 of one, half a dozen of the other. Now if only my crystal ball would tell me when interest was the lowest it will go and housing prices the lowest, both at same time. [
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quote:
Originally posted by Kapohocat
And see to me, we exchange a few dollars sale price for low interest rates - 6 of one, half a dozen of the other. Now if only my crystal ball would tell me when interest was the lowest it will go and housing prices the lowest, both at same time. []
So Cat,
Did I ever tell you that I have complete control over the real estate market? True! Every time I buy a property, right afterwards the median price goes DOWN! And after every time I sell a property the median price goes UP!
I'll let you know if this sale goes thru... [
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Thanks for the reply Dave. It's always informative to see how others are weighing these issues, especially when in the middle of a serious search. Hope that short sale offer works out to your advantage!
Cat - if you find that crystal ball, I'd pay to rent it for a few hours! [
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Cynthia Hoskins, R(S)
Clark Realty Corporation
www.clarkhawaii.com
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I don't want to hijack this thread. I read an interesting article regarding inflation this morning. It is from CNN Money if anyone is interested here is the article:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Roubini-at...5.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
They talk about the possibility of inflation issues this year which can ruin everyone's day here in paradise. [
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