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Drier air headed for the Big Island
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11-01-2016, 08:51 AM
quote: Correct link: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/hydro/pages/...utlook.pdf
11-14-2016, 07:40 AM
Ino your weather post was so accurate! Right on target. There was that week of dry, right when you said it was starting, then there was the one day of rain which you said might or might not hit us, it did, then back to beautiful clear weather again. I'm a bit surprised by today, hope there isn't much of this moisture. I appreciate your posts and would love a follow up. [
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11-15-2016, 09:02 PM
Cold air from the Arctic could have major effects here this Winter!
Very cold air poured off the Asia continent last week. This brought heavy snows to the Northern islands of Japan and if you’re familiar with lake effect snows, then this was sea effect snows. Cold air flowing across the relatively warm water created snow bands. Not unlike here where we get so much rain from cool air flowing across warm water. Unusual snow (for amount and duration) fell across the Northwest Pacific to sea level, something not usually seen on this scale until winter. Freezing Spray made it’s annual return very early. Snow cover in Asia is close to an all time record high coverage for this time of year. It’s amazingly solid across Asia; http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_v...016320.gif The open waters of Arctic are contributing much more water vapor than usual and created all this snow cover this Fall. In fact when ice covers the Arctic Ocean the air above the ice is much drier. The open water is disappearing slowly (record pace slow). The Arctic continues it’s all time record run of warm conditions- no worries it’s still much below freezing but I have never seen it this warm this late, when the Arctic’s warm that causes cold air to move South to the mid latitudes and beyond. Blue line = freezing line, green line = average line, red line = today; http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php All this cold air pouring off Asia and out of the Polar regions during Oct. and Nov. has lowered North Pacific water temperatures so much that cold air will be able to stay much more intact much further South than usual this Winter. We’ll have a higher than average chance of Kona Lows this winter IMO; http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomal...4.2016.gif See that warm water to the West of us? This will create a steady stream of warm water vapor to interact with the plunging cold air masses and storms will rapidly intensify in this area. This is a classic case of where storms will form or intensify using the temperature differential between the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) as an indicator. The Polar jet stream will take a position much further South in the Pacific than what we have seen in a very long time-it’s been about six years, this winter. This could have major ramifications here as much stronger than usual cold fronts could make it to our Latitude with much less modification (warming) than usual. This usually means wind here. And windy it will be for the foreseeable future. Look for these cold fronts to strengthen here around the start of meteorological winter Dec. 1st. In the long run IMO the California Drought could be threatened; http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec1.html Right where they need it but hopefully it’s not too much- too fast; http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pr...ns/814day/ Yesterday a chunk of Siberian cold air (from the Japan storm) dissipated here right behind a cold front that moved over us and got hung up on our Mountains. That’s a major reason we can just keep getting rain. That front stalled out right over us. Low level moisture and enough uplift to push it into the cooler air above us causes the almost continuous rain we get sometimes. Enjoy the relatively drier wx late this week before another dissipating cold front reaches us this weekend and we will experience wet conditions once again. The high winds will keep the cold fronts from just sitting over us for too long and give us breaks in between the dissipating fronts. Ideal wx for here considering it’s our wet season. I like AI (Artificial Intelligence’s) attempts (since Nov. 2015 ) at wx forecasting from IBM’s Watson. IBM bought the Weather.com in Oct. 2015 and I’m starting to think it’s the most accurate wx forecast here. It does change but I have thought for a long time that many wx forecasts don’t change and it makes them wrong; https://www.google.com/#q=hilo+hi+weather+forecast As a graveyard for North Pacific cold fronts, this defines our wet season. The highs are becoming more individual cell like with cold fronts in between and the fronts will be able to reach us at times. The cold air and speed of the wind will keep our precipitation amounts low for now but a major cold air mass could break our way during the end of Nov. If it’s cold enough aloft, it could bring Thunderstorms here and even heavy snows to our mountains. This cold core upper level Low to our NW could be our first Kona Low of the season; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold-core_low It may stay just far enough North to only graze us and it’s way too early to know what will happen. But this storm is associated with a collapsing Polar Vortex moving our way, Keep an eye on this one.
11-16-2016, 03:59 AM
Wow! Thanks, Ino, for the fascinating and comprehensive analysis. I think the storms are worth it when we get those fantastic Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa snows. I even recall seeing a little snow on Hualalai a few years ago, so that might happen, too.
11-17-2016, 02:40 AM
quote: Well after singing the praises of the Dark Sky app, I must admit that it has been almost useless for the last month at least...  Cheers, Kirt |
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