Wet enough for you?

[TomK]

"Not to worry. In a decade, the sun will be making a dramatic downturn in its output and we'll be engulfed in ice-age (mini or otherwise). The sun, and the shape of the orbit (and tilt of axis) are the prime-movers in climate variability."

The sun is a variable star, its energy output does change on relatively short to mid-timescales. There are some indications that in roughly 10-20 years we may face a mini ice age, but the evidence is not conclusive. Look up "Maunder minimum" if you want to learn more. Frankly, if it means the temperatures in Hawaii drop a couple of degrees during hurricane season, I'll be a happy punter.

As for axial tilt, that's the reason for seasons, but I'm not sure what "the shape of the orbit" has to do with anything. I welcome an explanation.

[Opihikaobob]

quote:

---

Originally posted by TomK

"Not to worry. In a decade, the sun will be making a dramatic downturn in its output and we'll be engulfed in ice-age (mini or otherwise). The sun, and the shape of the orbit (and tilt of axis) are the prime-movers in climate variability."

The sun is a variable star, its energy output does change on relatively short to mid-timescales. There are some indications that in roughly 10-20 years we may face a mini ice age, but the evidence is not conclusive. Look up "Maunder minimum" if you want to learn more. Frankly, if it means the temperatures in Hawaii drop a couple of degrees during hurricane season, I'll be a happy punter.

As for axial tilt, that's the reason for seasons, but I'm not sure what "the shape of the orbit" has to do with anything. I welcome an explanation.

---

Here you go Tom, a theory by Milankovitch
Milankovitch cycles

Milankovitch theory describes the collective effects of changes in the Earth's movements upon its climate, named after Serbian geophysicist and astronomer Milutin Milankovi#263;. Milankovi#263; mathematically theorized that variations in eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession of the Earth's orbit determined climatic patterns on Earth through orbital forcing.

The Earth's axis completes one full cycle of precession approximately every 26,000 years. At the same time, the elliptical orbit rotates more slowly. The combined effect of the two precessions leads to a 21,000-year period between the astronomical seasons and the orbit. In addition, the angle between Earth's rotational axis and the normal to the plane of its orbit (obliquity) oscillates between 22.1 and 24.5 degrees on a 41,000-year cycle. It is currently 23.44 degrees and decreasing.

Similar astronomical theories had been advanced in the 19th century by Joseph Adhemar, James Croll and others, but verification was difficult due to the absence of reliably dated evidence and doubts as to exactly which periods were important. Not until the advent of deep-ocean cores and a seminal paper by Hays, Imbrie, and Shackleton, "Variations in the Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages", in Science (1976)[1] did the theory attain its present state.

[Mimosa]

The day time temps of late - remind us of cool winter days in the tropics.Very used to this as we spent some years helping the less fortunate s through our church,in S.E.Asia .
Just seems normal to us,as cool winter days in the tropics.For Hawaii the island,seems a bit abnormal though.
The gully washer we had a few days ago,is welcome and common during El Nino events which we seem to be in the beginning stages of once again.
Was much more intense in the 1930s than what we have had this summer so far.
The next occurrence may be a dry spell or drought lasting more than 120 days in the 1st four or so months of 2016.
Now is the time to install larger water catchments of 16,000 gallons per tank,to weather the up coming drought.

Time will tell.



Mrs.Mimosa

[macuu222]

On the bright side...A dry winter means a bumper mango crop for our tree in the spring!