Nova: Hawaii on Fire

[TomK]

Chas;

"For instance, they analyzed the initial lava and realized it wasn’t the lava that drained from Halemaumau so they knew the next lava would be more fluid, etc.

Did they make these “predictions” at the time it was happening?"

I suggest you watch the video again and also look at the history that is available in the 2018 Lava Flow Emergency forum.

http://www.punaweb.org/Forum/forum.asp?FORUM_ID=16

It seems to me HVO and the scientists got it mostly right. There may have been some things that happened that were surprises but most of their predictions turned out to be correct.

Predicting newer and hotter lava from Pu'u O'o and Kilauea's summit might break out in the existing fissures; HVO scientists predicted that and it's exactly what happened. What else do you want? Is there some specific example you want to share with us?

[Chas]

I remember there seemed to be a lot of confusion and conflicting information at the time, which I guess was understandable.

I didn’t feel like paging through the entire history of the forums so that’s why I asked. Good to know they got it mostly correct.

Thanks.

[KiminPL]

Surprised to see my driveway in the early minutes of the program. My place did not figure into the eruption.
The explanations about the magma movement underground were quite helpful. I was unaware of the differences between lava chemistry from parts of the eruption. Very interesting.

[TomK]

Chas,

"I remember there seemed to be a lot of confusion and conflicting information at the time, which I guess was understandable."

I think much of the confusing info came from Civil Defense (Magno) and the county. HVO were very consistent with their reports and predictions. The couldn't make precise predictions, obviously, but they were the ones that informed the authorities about what might happen. It was after that point those in Puna were given confusing and sometimes conflicting information. That wasn't HVO's fault.

[Chas]

Went to the talk by Rick Hazlett at Lyman Museum. (Thanks again for the heads up Carey)

It was excellent. The same talk will be presented Tuesday the 29th at 3PM.

[Carey]

I went too! It was a good recap, with a new addition, about the aftermath of that 6.9... something I had thought was indicated, but was never mentioned, then, by HVO!