Property Values

[HawaiiTedd]

Take a look at the blue lines in the HVO map at http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/maps/uploads/image-132.jpg
...then look at where the entire flow field and current outbreaks upslope are.

It is entirely possible that the Makuu area of HPP will be affected by this current flow, especially with the current breakouts occurring north of the flow front.

Also, IF the flow continues to breakout upslope then Ainaloa could be threatened.

Additionally, IF there are any new breakouts closer to Puu Oo then a portion of Orchidland and the REAR (southern) sections of Hawaiian Acres, Fern Acres, Kopua Farm Lots, Eden Roc, and Fern Forest will be threatened.

My opinion is that the real estate values in these blue line areas mentioned above have already taken a big hit, and that they will continue to decline as long as the current flow is active and widening (based on past flows).

Even for a willing buyer, getting financing and insurance to buy these properties would be difficult and/or expensive given the risks. It is also entirely possible that some sellers will simply not be able to sell their properties at all due to lack of cash buyers (who don't need financing/insurance) willing to take the risk of buying in active flow area.

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[sistersue]

It would be so easy to see what will happen with the flow IF it had been staying on a "blue line". But it seems to go wherever it wants to go although at this time it is on a blue line again, but more of this flow is off of a blue line than on one.

[missydog1]

A new term in Puna land sales: "blue line" property. Red lines might be more accurate.

My sympathy to all land owners affected by blue lines pointing to their land.

Insurers, though, don't typically take such a flexible approach. Their rates and risk assessment was based on lava zones, any sign that has changed? Seems if a property is not under a volcanic threat warning, it probably won't change?

Kathy

[csgray]

Even the HVO scientists acknowledge that the blue lines are based on computer models of how water would flow, and that lava does not flow the same way as water. The biggest difference is that lava changes and builds ups the landscape, while water tends to erode or wear down the landscape, so when flows are happening the blue lines would need to change constantly to take into account the new landscape.

I just do not see lenders and insurance companies changing from the current lava zone system to something based on those models. Until a few weeks ago most of the people here did not even know those maps existed, and many people still don't know they do, I would guess they are not even on the radar of the lenders or insurance companies, who go by federal flood zones and the state lava zones.

Carol

Every time you feel yourself getting pulled into other people's nonsense, repeat these words: Not my circus, not my monkeys.
Polish Proverb

[Frank]

just for clarification on blue lines...quote from the site http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/maps/

The blue lines show down-slope paths calculated from a 1983 digital elevation model (DEM). For an explanation of down-slope path calculations, see: http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1264/. Down-slope path analysis is based on the assumption that the DEM perfectly represents the earth's surface. DEMs, however, are not perfect, so the blue lines on this map indicate approximate flow path directions. All older Pu#699;u #699;#332;#699;#333; lava flows (1983–2014) are shown in gray; the yellow line marks the lava tube. (see large map)

[missydog1]

What Carol said, is what I was thinking and trying to express; she said it better.[]

Kathy

[HawaiiTedd]

As a point of note, the HVO scientist in last Thursday's Pahoa presentation (Steve Brantley) was remarking, in fact, how closely the lava from Kahauale'a 1 and 2 and June 27th flows has been following the predictive blue lines.

Please feel free to watch this very informative presentation on the Big Island Video News page:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygEhXF7mxEY

Also, look at this map and you will see for yourself that each lobe terminates at a blue line:
http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/maps/uploads/image-135.jpg

Also note that there are no blue lines in the area where the lava exited the crack, likely due to the unpredictability of the terrain that was noted.

I predict that lenders and insurance companies will begin utilizing the blue line information to make business decisions regarding property in Puna (if they aren't already).

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[steve1]

I think you may be giving too much credit for forethought to lenders and insurance adjustors. Insurance companies get their data mostly from historical data and large companies aren't really that concerned about Puna or Hawaii for that matter. So the exclusion in many insurance policies that disallow coverage for lava damage but still allows for fire payouts if the building burns before contact is probably based on the numerous pyroclastic (exploding) volcanoes located in the Ring of Fire, and they probably don't even take our little shield volcano Kilauea into account. What they are concerned about is another Mt. St. Helens or Mt. Ranier taking out 300,000 people in Seattle which is why they don't want to cover lava or volcanic ash. And compiling data for an insurance company is a lot like driving backwards with your rear view mirrors.
Banks make their money charging interest on principal and all they really care about is ability to pay. So either you can keep paying them or an insurance company can pay the debt, which is why they require homeowners insurance to get a loan.

[missydog1]

Yes, it's an odd story how the lava zone mapping project, which can be found online but I don't have the link at hand, became established as a basis for insurance rates. The zone mapping was never meant for that, and really wasn't meant to be predictive. Zone 2 isn't always safer than Zone 1, for example. Zone 3 is not safe, but yet it's treated as such by the insurers.

They've been using a system that really doesn't predict lava risk all that well for decades, so I doubt they will suddenly become cutting edge.

Kathy

[VancouverIslander]

The point of the zones is that they represent a probability of inundation by lava, not that they are predictive of any single flow. While a single Mauna Loa flow can rip across Lava zone 3 areas, it happens very rarely compared to Kilauea covering parts of Lava zone 1 and 2 continuously for decades. This is the kind of data that insurance companies can dig their teeth into.

With regard to property values, I think there's already been a drop in some areas in the direct path and that might be cut off and it might drop more. In the longer run, however, I expect this flow will eventually dry up and eventually Pu'u'o'o will resume flowing down toward the ocean. Whether this happens before crossing 130 or not is the big question, but even if it crosses, I expect within a year or so the road will be restored and things will move on for the Pahoa section of Puna. I expect the biggest danger to homes will be looters in unoccupied residences.