09-24-2015, 04:01 PM
Short lived Tropical Storm Nalia will pass South of the Big Island this weekend. In a sign of a changing atmosphere, one of our first cold upper level parcels of air from the North Pacific will move over the Big Island at the same time with lowering Freezing Levels. This will lead to downpours and even Thunderstorms.
Look for a flooding situation and intense weather, especially on Sunday as the Vortex Max. passes just South of us. Unfortunately the shear will also slow the speed of the storm's passing leading to prolonged heavy rains.
Not a good place to be the North side of a cyclone but we will be saved once again by the subtropical jet which will shear the cyclone apart with a SW wind . With a strong High North of us moving South look for high trade winds and steering winds will keep the cyclone South.
During last Sunday's downpours the Freezing Level at Hilo fell all the way to 13,500'. Currently it's way back up to 17,000', We are truly lucky that the MJO does not move the other way. It is currently SE of us moving from West to East. If it went the other way East to West cyclones could intensify rapidly and hit us hard.
Enjoy these rains because by about the middle/late Oct. we will be starting to go on a long pronounced dry spell-Our Winter 2016! Normally our wet season is Winter but if you remember last Winter, conditions have only intensified so look for a warm, relatively dry Winter one more time with high wind episodes due to frontal passages. No worries for too long a drought as the Spring of 2016 looks wet.
This is a link to monitor the various tropical waves that are always moving by;
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macr...whoriz.php
Look for a flooding situation and intense weather, especially on Sunday as the Vortex Max. passes just South of us. Unfortunately the shear will also slow the speed of the storm's passing leading to prolonged heavy rains.
Not a good place to be the North side of a cyclone but we will be saved once again by the subtropical jet which will shear the cyclone apart with a SW wind . With a strong High North of us moving South look for high trade winds and steering winds will keep the cyclone South.
During last Sunday's downpours the Freezing Level at Hilo fell all the way to 13,500'. Currently it's way back up to 17,000', We are truly lucky that the MJO does not move the other way. It is currently SE of us moving from West to East. If it went the other way East to West cyclones could intensify rapidly and hit us hard.
Enjoy these rains because by about the middle/late Oct. we will be starting to go on a long pronounced dry spell-Our Winter 2016! Normally our wet season is Winter but if you remember last Winter, conditions have only intensified so look for a warm, relatively dry Winter one more time with high wind episodes due to frontal passages. No worries for too long a drought as the Spring of 2016 looks wet.
This is a link to monitor the various tropical waves that are always moving by;
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macr...whoriz.php
