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Close call with Tropical Storm Nalia
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09-25-2015, 04:56 PM
We're going to be on the wet side of the storm. 6-12 inches forecast. And the storm is supposed to slow down as it approaches so that could mean torrential rain.
Good thing the trades are strong and that's what will steer it to the south.
One Thing I can always be sure of is that things will never go as expected.
09-25-2015, 05:26 PM
quote:Ditto, Ino. Mahalo plenty. Be safe all. 
09-25-2015, 06:34 PM
jackson,
"why does the storm appear to be moving North on the radar???" I'm assuming you mean satellite images rather than radar, as the storm is too far away to be seen on Hawaii weather radars. As for the northern movement, you're likely seeing the high-level clouds from the storm being pulled off by north-easterly shear, i.e high level winds. The low-level center of the storm is still moving to the north-west, but isn't particularly obvious on satellite images.
09-26-2015, 04:57 AM
Odd thing is that all twenty of the models show 50 knots to be maximum sustained winds. I have never seen a 100% agreement like that. Not even close. Stranger still is that at the time I'm typing this the last recorded wind speed posted is 52 knots.
06 CP spaghetti models Highest predicted winds •Median: 50.0 knots •Average: 50.0 knots Highest predicted winds of all models •SHIP: 50 knots •SHFR: 50 knots •SHF5: 50 knots •OFCL: 50 knots •OFCI: 50 knots •OCD5: 50 knots •NGX2: 50 knots •NAMI: 50 knots •MRCL: 50 knots •LGEM: 50 knots •LBAR: 50 knots •IVCN: 50 knots •ICON: 50 knots •HWFI: 50 knots •GHMI: 50 knots •GFTI: 50 knots •GFDI: 50 knots •DSHP: 50 knots •DRCL: 50 knots •AVNI: 50 knots
09-26-2015, 05:00 AM
quote: According to the forecast advisory it's moving to the NW: DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NIALA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 151.8 WEST. NIALA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NIALA WILL PASS 100 TO 150 MILES SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. 
09-26-2015, 08:08 AM
OMG, now it's made it's expected turn to the west.
TROPICAL STORM NIALA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP062015 1100 AM HST SAT SEP 26 2015 SSMIS PASSES AT 1640 UTC AND 1714 UTC...COMBINED WITH A SHORT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP...CONFIRM THAT NIALA HAS MADE ITS EXPECTED TURN TOWARD THE WEST...AND MAY HAVE BEGUN TO MAKE THIS TURN BEFORE THE 1200 UTC SATELLITE ANALYSIS CYCLE. http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/arc...1509262050 ------------------------------------------------------- ETA: From NWS discussion #8 - FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 17.1N 152.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 17.1N 152.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 17.1N 153.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 16.9N 154.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 16.7N 155.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 16.1N 157.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 15.5N 159.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1800Z 14.8N 161.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW "...TAKES NIALA 120 TO 150 MILES SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS." "AGAIN...TROPICAL STORM NIALA LIKELY PEAKED NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO AND HAS BEEN WEAKENING EVER SINCE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS IN THE FACE OF INCREASING SHEAR...IN SPITE OF CONTINUED WARM SSTS. MOST INTENSITY GUIDANCE WEAKENS NIALA VERY QUICKLY...WITH SHIPS ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATING THIS SYSTEM BY 120 HOURS. THIS SEASON HAS HAD ITS SHARE OF RESILIENT TROPICAL SYSTEMS...SO OUR FORECAST WEAKENING TREND IS NOT AS QUICK AS MOST GUIDANCE. AFTER SLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGH 48 HOURS...WE FORECAST NIALA WILL DEGRADE TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW...BUT NOT DISSIPATE...ON DAY FOUR." Wind Speed Probabilities: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics...d=CP062015&latest=y#prob34
09-26-2015, 09:01 AM
Most of the spaghetti models show the storm veering south of the island very similar to the SHIPS NWS model. All of the models now predict slightly higher winds to reflect the actual wind speeds of 55 knots at 1100 HST.
Intensity / Wind Speed Projections for NIALA 06 CP spaghetti models Highest predicted winds Median: 55.0 knots Average: 55.25 knots Highest predicted winds of all models OCD5: 57 knots SHF5: 57 knots SHFR: 56 knots LBAR: 55 knots OFCI: 55 knots SHIP: 55 knots NGXI: 55 knots NAMI: 55 knots MRCL: 55 knots LGEM: 55 knots OFCL: 55 knots IVCN: 55 knots ICON: 55 knots HWFI: 55 knots GHMI: 55 knots GFTI: 55 knots GFDI: 55 knots DSHP: 55 knots DRCL: 55 knots AVNI: 55 knots
09-26-2015, 09:09 AM
What's your point, terracore?
ETA: To shockwave rider below, I asked a question, and not one of you. If you want comprehensive storm info that doesn't take eons to open, try going straight to the source with the professionals at NWS - Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Their discussion page is super quick and light to open. I provided the link earlier today on the previous page. I even cut and pasted the gist of the latest.
09-26-2015, 09:48 AM
quote: What's yours PM2? If you aren't interested in the storm posts, skip them, but please quit snarking at other people's posts. Some of our forum members are still on slow motion internet and may appreciate the synopsis without having to wait eons for pages to slowly load.
09-26-2015, 10:15 AM
It appears to be breaking up and the pieces heading eastward. There is a another large front approaching from the southwest but these usually affect Kona more. Lots of torrential showers coming tonight.
"Aloha also means goodbye. Aloha!"
*Japanese tourist on bus through Pahoa, "Is this still America?*
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