Hurricane season 2016

[TomK]

Mauna Kea's summit is already starting to see the effects of Darby. Wind speeds and humidity have been rising all evening.

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/current/

[TomK]

As of 8pm HST Thursday 21st July, three out of five models have Darby making a sudden turn to the north before the Big Island, one has it passing just north of the islands but close enough to feel impacts and the last has it passing between Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa after making a direct hit on Puna. Hopefully those three are the ones it follows. I'm getting this from:

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/e...?map=model

[Guest]

Dear Chas,

Time for you to learn how real world systems work.

Once you do, please teach.

[TomK]

Chas,

"...do you think they could make the various forecasts any harder to read? Winds 34KT???? Plain English please?"

The knot (KT) is used by meteorologists, aviators and sailors and has been around for centuries. It comes from sailors measuring their speed by using knots in ropes they hung over their sailing ships. It makes sense as it's based on the nautical mile which is also based on trigonometry and the shape of the earth (1 knot = 1 nautical mile per hour). It's not going to go away anytime soon I'm afraid.

As Tink mentioned, just multiply by 1.15 to get mph. I just multiply by 1.2 in my head which gets you close enough (take the speed in KT and add 20%).

[TomK]

A tropical storm warning has now been issued for the Big Island. Stay safe everyone and let's hope it veers off to the north.

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=hfo&wwa=tropical%20storm%20warning

--------------------------------------

TROPICAL STORM DARBY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1137 PM HST THU JUL 21 2016

...DARBY CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD HAWAII...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE NOW BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BIG ISLAND.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PORTIONS OF
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR KONA...SOUTH BIG
ISLAND...BIG ISLAND NORTH...EAST...KOHALA AND BIG ISLAND INTERIOR
AND BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOLOKAI...LANAI...
KAHOOLAWE...MAUI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND FROM
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A HIGH SURF WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF MAUI
AND THE BIG ISLAND FROM 6 AM FRIDAY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF MAUI
AND THE BIG ISLAND FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI...OAHU...AND MOLOKAI FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM
SATURDAY.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM HST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DARBY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.8N...LONGITUDE 148.1W...OR ABOUT 460 MILES EAST
OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 660 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.
TROPICAL STORM DARBY IS MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BIG ISLAND.
A MORE DETAILED STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IT IS VITAL THAT YOU DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
FORECAST MOVEMENT...DIRECTION...AND SPEED ARE ONLY ESTIMATES.
EVEN SMALL SHIFTS IN THE TRACK CAN MEAN MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN
WHERE THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. DAMAGING EFFECTS CAN
EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTER.

A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE POSSIBLE
ARRIVAL OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WHICH MAKE CONTINUING
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DANGEROUS. A WATCH IS THE TIME FOR YOU
TO PREPARE.

A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE EXPECTED
ARRIVAL OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. A WARNING IS THE TIME
FOR YOU TO FINISH YOUR PREPARATIONS AND BEGIN MOVING TO SAFE
SHELTER.

LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1 AM HST...OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

HIZ023>028-221745-
/O.UPG.PHFO.TR.A.2005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.PHFO.TR.W.2005.160722T0937Z-000000T0000Z/
KONA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA-
BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-
1137 PM HST THU JUL 21 2016

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

$$

HOUSTON

[terracore]

http://www.cyclocane.com/darby-spaghetti-models/

If you look at all 25ish models, some have the storm going south, some north, and some straight through the islands, it would be nice if I could see a description of how each model is derived because I don't know much about them.

[terracore]

Does anybody have an educated guess when the winds are going to pick up?

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

educated guess when the winds are going to pick up?

Using the Hilo forecast as a guide, it looks like sometime after 8 PM tonight (Friday). Saturday during the day should have the strongest winds which hopefully will top out around 40 MPH according to the latest forecast model:
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/PWS.p...1607212248

“What we take to be true is what we believe. What we believe is based upon our perceptions. What we perceive depends on what we look for. What we look for depends on what we think. What we think depends on what we perceive. What we perceive determines what we believe. What we believe determines what we take to be true. What we take to be true is our reality." -David Bohm

[pahoated]

TS Darby is coming in fast and tight. Looks like it veers north just before getting to Hawaii island. It's still going to be really wet and windy. County is saying to have storm preparations done before nightfall.

*Japanese tourist on bus through Pahoa, "Is this still America?*

[Kenney]

Be safe Mr. Tom, up there and at home!