Hurricane season 2016

[alaskyn66]

So .. when are they going to steer this storm away from us.. or did we not pay our dues this year.

..And the people bowed and prayed... to the neon God they made...

[kalakoa]

suspension of certain laws as needed for emergency purposes

Uncontrolled release from PGV: not illegal due to "emergency proclamation". Problem solved!

[Eric1600]

The 2pm update from NOAA shows <50% chance of more than 60 mph (50 kt) winds near the Island and it's still moving at only 10 kt. It has been experiencing sheer winds that have reduced its strength some as strength is expected to drop over the next 12-18 hours. Guidance is still a composite because they don't like any single model. However if it bends north of the island that would be the better side of the storm with less rain and winds.

[kander]

Looks like we should get some action in the next hour. Stay safe folks and good luck.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/flash-rb.html

[TomK]

A pretty decent read from Jeff Masters about Darby and Hawaiian storms in general:

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa...rynum=3361

[Guest]

Noticed KTA will be having a sale for our community tomorrow morning. For those of you who feel encouraged by their ads to drive through this TS, this year's cheapest watermelon's and cherry prices will Await you. WE are hoping the sale will last into early next week when we anticipate having our power hopefully restored.
Does KTA know or notice the community is about to be hit by this strong TS Darby, Do they really care about more than some expiring cherries and a few melons?

P.S. Very Thankful this storm will not be arriving during the working week for most. Also Thankful to have shelter, food, and water. Thankful for close and not so close family, friends, and neighbors. Thankful to have had the time to prepare, most importantly just thankful to live in Hawaii.
Be safe everyone and please make sure your pets are taken care of during this unpredictable TS Darby.

[leilanidude]

Does KTA know or notice the community is about to be hit by this strong TS Darby, Do they really care about more than some expiring cherries and a few melons?
-------
Ads are developed weeks and sometimes, months in advance.

[terracore]

5:00 pm forecast summary: Darby forecast now a little more South, a little more wind than 11:00 am forecast:

WTPA43 PHFO 230250
TCDCP3

TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052016
500 PM HST FRI JUL 22 2016

Tropical Storm Darby is very asymmetric in the satellite images this
afternoon with deep convection mainly within a band wrapping around
its western semicircle. This was also seen in the 2231 UTC GPM
pass, along with a separate rainband southeast of the center. High
clouds have been streaming toward the northeast which indicates the
cyclone is beginning to feel an approaching upper level trough. One
of the later passes through Darby by the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance
Squadron's WC-130J helped confirm the center position of the system
toward the end of the morning mission though the aircraft had to fly
lower to find it. Based on the morning recon mission and the
maintenance of deep convection, the initial intensity has been held
at 50 kt. Note that this is higher than the subjective Dvorak
estimates of 45 kt from PHFO and SAB, and 30 kt from JTWC. The next
aircraft mission into Darby is scheduled for this evening.

Darby is estimated to be moving at 280/11 kt to the south of a
ridge. This ridge is forecast to weaken due to a low pressure system
digging southward to the north of cyclone. This weakness is expected
to decrease Darby's forward motion over the next day, and increase
the amount of vertical shear affecting the system this weekend. The
trusted dynamical models have remained largely consistent today,
bringing Darby over the Big Island on Saturday. Thus, the current
forecast has been nudged southward closer to the dynamical consensus
with a landfall on the Big Island, followed by a path over Maui
County and near Oahu. The latter part of this path assumes that
Darby survives its impact on the Big Island which is not a certainty.

The intensity forecast rationale remains the same since the last
package. The main factors affecting the intensity forecast include
marginal sea surface temperatures, the amount and timing of vertical
wind shear, and the effects of any potential interactions with the
Hawaiian Islands. Sea surface temperatures will remain marginal near
26.5C over the next couple of days but vertical shear is expected to
increase as the previously mentioned upper level trough digs farther
south. This shear increase is not expected to become strong
until later this weekend. The forecast calls for only slow
weakening with Darby maintaining tropical storm strength through
the weekend. This is consistent with the previous package but
slightly lower than the intensity consensus. Interactions with the
Big Island may cause significant disruptions to Darby so the
intensity forecast confidence is not high at this time.

The expected movement of Darby, as well as the latest wind
probability guidance, warrants the issuance of a Tropical Storm
Watch for the island of Oahu with this package.

Interests on Kauai and the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument should continue to monitor the progress of Darby. Remember,
it is important not to focus too closely on the exact track and
intensity forecasts because the average track error 72 hours out is
near 100 miles, while the average intensity error is about 15 kt. In
addition, the hazards of a tropical cyclone can extend over a broad
area well away from the center.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 18.7N 152.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 18.9N 153.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 19.4N 154.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 20.2N 155.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 21.2N 157.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 23.5N 160.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 27.0N 163.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 31.0N 165.6W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kodama

[randomq]

If wind speeds are 60mph in Hilo, what would you expect up in Kurtistown, same?

[Guest]

Mahalo Leilanidude.

Maybe my teenagers didn't just learn something but I did. So Cherries and Watermelons will be in stock for weeks or months before they are put on sale huh? Joking sir.

This storm Darby really does pose a serious threat to Puna, especially lower puna areas near the ocean. Our Island really has not experienced too many storms this strong as they usually have avoided this Island in it's history. Not counting 2014 TS Iselle, that is. Growing up here as a Kid, I was taught to believe that our large mountains of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa somehow diverted or prevented these large storms most serious impacts from hitting our Island. Now It almost seems as if the Mountains have grown less rigid, peaceful, or calm. While also becoming a magnet or major cause of large storm unpredictability these days of better technology. Due to the gradual slowing and sometimes stalling of the storms before sling shooting around " not over " the mountains one way or the other. Jmo.