08-29-2016, 09:07 AM
Hurricane season 2016
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08-29-2016, 10:33 AM
If the current track and wind forecasts hold true, the closest approach of Madeline to Puna would be about 8 p.m. on Wednesday evening. These are the projected wind velocities of various force winds in distance from the center of the storm:
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 19.0N 150.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW. If, and it's always a big if with these things, this turns out to be true, most of us will get winds above tropical storm force, but not at Iselle levels. The south coast of the island would likely be getting the worst. I hope it turns out to be no worse than Darby, but I'm still making some sensible preparations.
08-29-2016, 11:25 AM
A flash flood watch has already been issued...
Look for heavy rain Wednesday morning in some areas. http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=hfo&wwa=flash%20flood%20watch ..Bad boys,Bad boys what we gonna do...let ya out on bail for a buck or two...
08-29-2016, 01:13 PM
Survival is the intersection between knowledge and necessity, but lets stick to what the professionals have to say:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Hawaii County. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Hurricane Watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds...conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Madeline. Watches may be required for additional Hawaiian Islands later tonight or tomorrow. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible over Hawaii County on Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Madeline are expected to reach the Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days, possibly becoming damaging along some coastlines Wednesday and Thursday. RAIN: Heavy rains associated with Madeline may reach Hawaii County on Wednesday, and may impact other Hawaiian Islands later Wednesday into Friday. Madeline is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts near 15 inches, especially over windward portions of the Big Island. This rainfall may lead to dangerous flash floods and mudslides. http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/arc...1608300239 ETA: Info, fixed link
08-29-2016, 07:18 PM
11pm update:
Forecast tracks for Madeline have it passing just south or over the Big Island Wednesday night. Of the six main tracking models, earlier ones had four of the six showing the storm center hitting the island, but now the most predictable and one other are shifting to the south. However, the storm is quite large and is now forecast to remain at hurricane strength until it is well past the island chain. The island is still within the "cone of uncertainty". https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/e...e-Madeline Lester is predicted by most models to veer to the north of the islands, but that is still a long way off so needs attention. It briefly became a category 4 hurricane today but has weakened slightly but is still a strong cat. 3 hurricane. https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/e...ane-Lester
08-29-2016, 07:24 PM
Set car perpendicular to breeze, open all doors and womp your seats to blast out dust.
08-29-2016, 11:34 PM
The 2am update has her 480 miles out, still going nearly due West and is a solid CAT4 moving at 9mph.
Remember that the "cone" is a probable path of the center - not the storm itself, which is much larger than the "cone" on the graphic. This satellite image shows the size of the storm - note how small our island is in comparison. http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics...d=EP142016
08-30-2016, 12:37 AM
"note how small our island is in comparison"
You never noticed 'till tonight dude ??? That's the same thing I say to preschoolers.
08-30-2016, 01:05 AM
quote: I was talking to YOU like a preschooler because that's the only way you would understand it. |
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