Hurricane season 2016

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

I am taking Madeline seriously

I'm with you Chunkster.
A near miss by a Category 3 compared to a direct hit by Iselle, almost a Category 1?
How much difference will there be?

- Be pleasant to inefficient workers; give them undeserved promotions. - Work slowly. - Refer all matters to committees for "further study and consideration. - Hold conferences. - Make travel as inconvenient as possible. - Haggle over precise wordings of communications. - Advocate “caution.” Be “reasonable” and avoid haste. (Excerpts from the WWII OSS Simple Sabotage Manual)

[ironyak]

Saw several HELCO trucks in and around Pahoa this morning working on the lines directly (not tree clearing). Anyone know what they might be doing as prep for the storm?

[Eric1600]

Just an FYI the models are pretty confused about the direction of Madeline. https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/e...?map=model

NOAA has again been using a consensus model to plot the path because nothing is really agreeing. They have picked the consensus based on the past error performance of a variety of consensus models. However once again (like with Darby) the predicted turn of Madeline is an area of high error. The consensus models they have been using have been tracking well in the past. The problem is the driving forces might be changing and it becomes unclear how well the chosen models will predict this. They are going with the current forecast, while acknowledging there is a large chance the track could be on the edge of the error cones.

JTWC shows it turning more and missing the big island https://metoc.ndbc.noaa.gov/ProductFeeds...ep1416.gif but I'm personally rooting for the GFS model which takes it even further south.

Here is NOAA's #16 discussion from 5am. They will be sending a hurricane hunter out today to get some real detail.

quote:

---

Madeline is tracking along the southern flank of the subtropical
ridge, but an upper trough northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands
allowed this system to gain latitude over the past few days. Global
models show this upper trough will lift northward through 48 hours,
giving the ridge a larger steering role by nudging Madeline westward
and west southwestward through day 2. Beyond 72 hours, the upper
trough is forecast to begin digging southward again, causing another
track bend to the west northwest on day 3 and beyond. Like before,
there are a few models that take Madeline over southern portions of
the Big Island, notably GFDL and ECMWF. However other models,
notably GFS, take Madeline noticeably farther south of the Big
Island. Small cosmetic changes were made to the forecast track at
48, 96 and 120 hours to keep it aligned with TVCN consensus, which
has handled this system superbly so far and lies firmly within the
guidance envelope.

---

Edit: In addition other models show it going to the south. And at its current rate it looks like we'll have another 24 hours before we have a better idea. http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realt...k_late.png

[kalakoa]

http://www.hawaiitribune-herald.com/news...-na-leo-tv

Ironic that they're broadcasting updates on a cable channel which is either "not available" in the impacted area, or will quickly become unavailable when trees fall on the cable/power lines.

[terracore]

quote:

---

Originally posted by ElysianWort

Hey how many of you guys board up your windows? I did it one time in my 30+ years of existence on the big island and experiencing storms. Did it for Iselle.

---

We boarded up the windward side for Iselle but never got the winds where we needed the plywood protection. Will wait until the last hours to decide if will board up this time. I have the wood cut and labeled so it won't take long to install.

[pahoated]

Hurrican Madeline is veering north. Puna is saved. Nothing to see here folks, move along.

Let's see, TS Darby was projected to go north, started heading north, then turned south, then turned north, then turned south as it went by.

Hurricane Madeline on 8/30, veering north.
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/satellite/Ha...R_loop.gif

*Japanese tourist on bus through Pahoa, "Is this still America?*

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Hurrican Madeline is veering north. Nothing to see here folks, move along.

ted,
That is the exact path projected by CPHC for 5 AM Tuesday until about noon today. This afternoon, the storm is expected to move southward again. Let's see what the 11 AM update brings our way.

Here's the projected path matching ted's infrared gif:
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics...42016W.gif


- Be pleasant to inefficient workers; give them undeserved promotions. - Work slowly. - Refer all matters to committees for "further study and consideration. - Hold conferences. - Make travel as inconvenient as possible. - Haggle over precise wordings of communications. - Advocate “caution.” Be “reasonable” and avoid haste. (Excerpts from the WWII OSS Simple Sabotage Manual)

[Eric1600]

quote:

---

Originally posted by HereOnThePrimalEdge

Hurrican Madeline is veering north. Nothing to see here folks, move along.

ted,
That is the exact path projected by CPHC for 5 AM Tuesday until about noon today.

---

Best to ignore him. Ted is playing a game of reducing the complexity to a 50/50 or north/south problem. Then he picks one and goes all in just to stir things up. For him it's fun to play, but the reality is the professionals are doing much more than make childlike predictions and espouse them as truths.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Best to ignore him.

You know that.
And I know that.
But since a hurricane could create serious consequences for someone who bases their decision on deceptive information, I thought it best to counter his misleading gif with a jpg that shows the big picture.

- Be pleasant to inefficient workers; give them undeserved promotions. - Work slowly. - Refer all matters to committees for "further study and consideration. - Hold conferences. - Make travel as inconvenient as possible. - Haggle over precise wordings of communications. - Advocate “caution.” Be “reasonable” and avoid haste. (Excerpts from the WWII OSS Simple Sabotage Manual)

[knieft]

The Dark Sky app has it as just "kissing" Puna and then almost going directly south before continuing around the island. Most rain on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Interestingly the ever slightly changing wind speed predictions have never been above 20 mph.

Hoping the computer model the Dark Sky app uses is accurate again...

Cheers,
Kirt