When this or any storms path is being predicted are they referring to the eye or center of the storm only?
Anyone know how big the eye of Madelin approximately is? or how far out from the eye or center the hurricane force winds and rain may be extending?
Concerned Places like Opihikao, Seaview, and Kalapana may be in for 50-100 miles of wind and rain before the eye of Madelin rolls just a few miles offshore, possibly Followed by another 50-100 miles or so of thunderous rain and strong winds.
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Per the CPHC:
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km).
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/arc...1608302058
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Going to go ahead and add some bracing up in the attic today. If nothing else for the peace of mind.
Here's to hoping that Fujiwara/Fujihara effect kicks in with an assist to send Madeline spinning off to the south.
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It's always interesting to compare hurricane path projections after-the-fact:
Aug. 27
http://damontucker.com/wp-content/upload...eline3.gif
Aug. 29
https://lintvkhon.files.wordpress.com/20....gif?w=650
Aug. 30
http://khnl.images.worldnow.com/images/11600028_G.gif
It was going north, going south now, but today, not as far south. If it keeps going less south, the center is going to hit Puna. A few meteorologists are now saying the combined impact could exceed Iselle.
http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/32877...-ts-iselle
*Japanese tourist on bus through Pahoa, "Is this still America?*
*Japanese tourist on bus through Pahoa, "Is this still America?*
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The 11am update is painting a senario worse than Iselle. Getting stressed out. Not good.
One Thing I can always be sure of is that things will never go as expected.
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We are now under a hurricane "warning" as of 11:50am. Looks like the center will brush along south point
http://www.hawaiicounty.gov/active-alerts/
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It's actually going West: PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT
Hurricane Hunters flying through it this morning prompted a slight downgrade in strength: Given the minimum pressure reports
from the aircraft and the range of the data, the current intensity is lowered to 100 kt.
Forecasters are having a tough time estimating the 24/48 hour strength but in general they think it will weaken more as the sheer increases slightly. However it is going to be packing a big punch.
FYI Knieft, the Dark Sky app uses the GFS model, which I am also rooting for but the forecasters are not liking it right now. More models are showing a stronger push to the south.
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/e...?map=model
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in general they think it will weaken more as the sheer increases slightly.
I've seen one forecast showing Madeline dropping to a Cat 2 as it approaches Big Island, another as a Cat 1 when it's directly south of us. Still a powerful storm whether or not that happens, but it's a little bit of good news.
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"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves
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quote:
Originally posted by Eric1600
FYI Knieft, the Dark Sky app uses the GFS model, which I am also rooting for but the forecasters are not liking it right now. More models are showing a stronger push to the south. https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/e...?map=model
Thanks, Eric. I was wondering the exact thing--which model Dark Sky uses. I think you or somebody mentioned it once before.
Why do you say the forecasters are not liking it? With such discrepancies in the models, they have to assume the worst trajectory, no?
So, what sort of track record do these different models have? Is the GFS as good as it seems to me in my admittedly myopic vision?
The map/graphic makes it seem as if each is equally valid, but I can't imagine that is true.
Cheers,
Kirt
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I didn't know anything about the hurricane until I heard it on the radio today. IWould have said something before if I knew. I guess the coverage here of Hawaii news really sucks! I'm holding all of you in my heart, my thoughts and my prayers.
Here in CA, the problem has been wildfires. I'm one of the people who has respiratory problems with the smoke and I'm grateful good progress is now being made in containing (securing the perimeter) of the one up in our backcountry that started last Thursday. But our five-year drought is so bad that there are fires in many places and a lot of damage, a few deaths.
Take care, all of you.
Pam in CA
Pam in CA
