Hurricane season 2016

[terracore]

LESTER Good news / bad news from 5:00pm:


HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132016
500 PM HST THU SEP 01 2016

...Though the official track remains close to the prior advisory, the track has been nudged slightly northward from Friday night and onward, and it remains very close to the TVCN and the operational GFS, while the ECMWF projected track remains to the north.

/

Lester rapidly re-intensified to a major hurricane today as deep
convection strengthened around a well defined eye. Lester has been
moving over an area of warmer SSTs, and modest southeasterly
vertical wind shear appears to have been enhancing outflow to the
west and north of the cyclone.

[alaskyn66]

So in other words.. it won't have any effect on Puna / hilo other than high surf.

..post Madeline sunset over Mk.

http://imgur.com/l1utdUB

[ElysianWort]

quote:

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Originally posted by imemine

quote:

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Originally posted by ElysianWort

Iselle made us feel less safe...

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It wasn't Iselle as much as it was the albizia.

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Do the albizias fall on that day in that manner causing that much damage on their own without the tropical storm force sustained winds?

[terracore]

HURRICANE LESTER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132016
1500 UTC FRI SEP 02 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAUI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
* OAHU

[opihikao]

FYI: (*Snipped - More at link) Mahalo to all for the updates, and please stay safe!

http://www.bigislandvideonews.com/2016/0...ii-island/


HAWAII ISLAND – The Big Island is no longer under a Hurricane Watch, however county emergency officials are taking precautions as large ocean swells generated by Hurricane Lester are still expected to impact East Hawaii shores.

“For those who anticipate impact from High Surf,” civil defense officials stated in a 2:15 p.m. message, “shelters will open at 5 PM today at Pahoa Community Center and at Keaukaha – Kawananakoa Gym.”

A High Surf Warning is now in effect for East Hawaii shores until 6 a.m. Sunday morning.

Surf heights will rise to 10 – 15 feet tonight, and continue rising to 15 – 25 feet Saturday. Warning level surf will continue into Saturday night.

The National Weather Service expects high impacts.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

And now for our post-Hurricane Madeline wrap up. Excerpts from some of the many comments posted about the storm:

#1 - tracking projections indicate heading into Puna
#2 - one projection line is straight into Puna
#3 - unwarranted and excessive condescension in lieu of common sense if one does not agree with this clown ?
#4 - Hurrican Madeline is veering north. (which would have been directly toward Puna at that time)

Some Punaweb members clearly take the designation "Spaghetti Model" quite seriously. My best guess is that they boil actual spaghetti in a pot on their stove, then toss the strands toward a set of their decorative Hawaii Island porcelain plates, from which the expected path of the storm is determined. Sometimes it sticks, sometimes it doesn't.

Suggestion for future events: it's probably safer not to follow these al dente predictions, as they're a little on the raw side. Also, I'd hate to see their kitchen after each of these incidents. Between the build up of noodles and empty beer bottles, it probably does look like a hurricane hit.

Mission Accomplished!

[PunaMauka2]

lol


Unusually balmy (and quite pleasant) soft breeze from the south and now a little to the west up in Volcano today. Guessing the circulation of Lester from afar may be involved. Sure beats a day of battening down the hatches.

[VancouverIslander]

HotPE: you are entirely correct, the whole thing ended up being overblown. That said, there was potential for it to head into Puna. It's definitely worth being prepared for either eventuality, but here's hoping the future brings only near misses at worst.

Me ka ha`aha`a,
Mike

[shockwave rider]

Went down to the Maku'u "beach" after picking up the rent check from my tenants today on our way home from the Kona side and saw clear physical evidence of how far back the waves came last night. Big rocks were moved farther from the shore than I've ever seen and the big log bench is pretty busted up. The hala, ferns and grasses showed evidence of wave action almost to the parking area. My tenants said they could hear booming waves all night, and they are 2 miles back.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

My tenants said they could hear booming waves all night
At one point last night the crashing waves reached an intensity so thunderously loud and unrelenting, I woke to what sounded more like a landslide than surf pounding against the rocks.

That said, there was potential for it to head into Puna.
Yes, early on the official forecasts had Puna within the Cone of Uncertainty. I thought the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, Weather Underground, and other online computer models did an excellent job in what is at best an unpredictable business. My comments were directed toward one or two of the unofficial armchair prognosticators.

- Be pleasant to inefficient workers; give them undeserved promotions. - Work slowly. - Refer all matters to committees for "further study and consideration. - Hold conferences. - Make travel as inconvenient as possible. - Haggle over precise wordings of communications. - Advocate “caution.” Be “reasonable” and avoid haste. (Excerpts from the WWII OSS Simple Sabotage Manual)