Hurricane Season 2019

[TomK]

The first system of the year (that I'm aware of) in the Eastern Pacific has already formed - Invest 91E. It's just off the coast of Central America and has a 50% chance of forming a cyclone in the next five days. Fortunately, it's extremely unlikely to become a threat to the islands.

Just like last year though, it's an early start to the season.

[terracore]

One of my favorite trackers:

https://www.cyclocane.com/

[birdmove]

Boy, lots of great storm tracking sites here.

Jon in Keaau/HPP

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

28 minute video from NWS Honolulu disussing the 2019 Central Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?t=1360s&v=WptAAVamvpY

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Preparing for Hurricanes on INSIGHTS ON PBS HAWAII
Thursday, May 30th
8:00 PM

We’ve been here before. On its approach to the Hawaiian Islands last year, Hurricane Lane dumped an historic amount of rain on the Big Island, causing major flooding. Are we prepared? Join the discussion

https://www.pbshawaii.org/insights/

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

NOAA will be running two side by side forecast models until September 2019:

The long-awaited upgrade to the US weather forecast model is here

For the first time in about 40 years, the guts of the US model got swapped out for something new today. The upgrade brings us a new “Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere” (or FV3) dynamical core, which simulates the basic atmospheric physics at the heart of this endeavor, a change that has been in the works for a while.

... switching out the core of the main forecast model is a big deal that will hopefully help it keep up with the progress being made by others. Right now, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model is generally seen as the top dog.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/06/...re-update/

[alaskyn66]

It seems we might be " moving on up " in the world. First Goes 17 and now a new model.

[terracore]

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 252035
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2019 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON FORMS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 105.7W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 600 MI...960 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 105.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h)
and a west-northwestward to westward motion with some decrease in
forward speed is expected over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Wednesday or
Wednesday night. The system is forecast to begin weakening on
Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI...2035.shtml?

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Tropical Depression One-E

Thanks terracore,
Here’s the cone graphic:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic...e#contents

Long range spaghetti models show the storm on a more northerly track, so that’s good news:
https://www.cyclocane.com/one-e-spaghetti-models/

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Tropical Storm Alvin forms off Mexico.
Photos from Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS):

https://scienmag.com/nasas-terra-satelli...orm-alvin/