COVID-19 confirmed in Hawaii: 607+ cases 16 deaths

[randomq]

Any slime-ball actually committing crimes during a national/global emergency deserve the additional risks of incarceration. If the situation is not clear, or minor, just write them a ticket and deal with them later.

[Guest]

For those that have echoed the Administration's cavalier approach to the covid crisis..

From: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/13/o...at-we-did/

A coronavirus cautionary tale from Italy: Don’t do what we did
Many of us were too selfish to follow suggestions to change our behavior. Now we’re in lockdown and people are needlessly dying.

Until last week, the Italian public health care system had the capacity to care for everyone. Our country has universal health care, so patients aren’t turned away from hospitals here. But in a matter of days, the system was being felled by a virus that I, and many other Italians, had failed to take seriously.

The inability of the medical system to deal with the flow of patients in critical condition is not one of the problems of this complex medical emergency. It is the problem. I shouldn’t have been surprised. As a journalist, I had read, heard, and spoken to several experts explaining that the most immediate threat of Covid-19 was the hospital system becoming overwhelmed, and therefore the most pressing need was to avoid too many people getting sick at the same time, as resources are limited. (It’s what’s called “flattening the curve.”)

But that information was somehow stored in some remote interstice of my mind, covered by an incessant flow of bits and charts on the mortality rate of the elderly, political mismanagement, quarrels over under-testing and over-testing, market collapses, projections on the economic impact of the epidemic, and so on. All of this is, of course, extremely relevant — but at the same time feels totally irrelevant when lives are being lost in a situation that was preventable. As of Friday night, 1,266 people have died in Italy due to the outbreak.

So here’s my warning for the United States: It didn’t have to come to this.

We of course couldn’t stop the emergence of a previously unknown and deadly virus. But we could have mitigated the situation we are now in, in which people who could have been saved are dying. I, and too many others, could have taken a simple yet morally loaded action: We could have stayed home.

What has happened in Italy shows that less-than-urgent appeals to the public by the government to slightly change habits regarding social interactions aren’t enough when the terrible outcomes they are designed to prevent are not yet apparent; when they become evident, it’s generally too late to act. I and many other Italians just didn’t see the need to change our routines for a threat we could not see.

Italy has now been in lockdown since March 9; it took weeks after the virus first appeared here to realize that severe measures were absolutely necessary...

The rest of the article is at the link above..

[ironyak]

Exponential growth means cases will double every few days. 26 ... 52 ... 104 ... 208 ...
Each change will always the highest ever. Faster and faster now, Italy is on the horizon...

https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/03/19...el-hawaii/

Hawaii is reporting 10 new cases of coronavirus, bringing the statewide total to 26. It’s the highest one-day total since the pandemic started.

Complicating matters, authorities were releasing different statistics.

The Health Department initially said six new cases had been confirmed, but later revised the figure after Lt. Gov. Josh Green put the increase in the double digits.

Meanwhile Thursday, officials announced that state Sen. Clarence Nishihara had tested positive for the virus. It’s the first confirmed case linked to the state Capitol building, and prompted office closures.

And Tripler Army Medical Center also announced the first case linked to Hawaii’s Army community, saying an employee at the hospital tested positive Wednesday after returning from a trip to New York and developing symptoms. The employee is in self-isolation at home and undergoing monitoring.

Of the 10 new cases, eight are on Oahu and two are on Maui. The two Maui cases are residents who recently traveled to Europe, county officials said.

The widening spread of the virus comes amid growing calls to do more to shut down the state to visitors and keep all but essential workers at home.

[EightFingers]

Exponential growth means cases will double every few days. 26 ... 52 ... 104 ... 208 ..

That’s linear growth with a slope of two.

Exponential growth is like this example: 2,4,16, 256, 65536.....

The graph would look like a parabola in this example.

As you can see exponential growth (or geometric, logarithmic) is a far scarier proposition.

Puna: Our roosters crow first

[1voyager1]

Just refreshed the JH map.
It declared 26 confirmed cases for Hawaii.
Checked my HDOH [or what ever] email:

Number of Total Positive Case(s)*

Statewide 26

Honolulu 18

Maui County 5

Kaua‘i 2

Hawai‘i Island 1

We're beginning to roll along.
Fasten your seat belt.

[ironyak]

That’s linear growth with a slope of two. Exponential growth is like this example: 2,4,16, 256, 65536.....

Is it really? Are you sure you don't want to double check your answer? Maybe see what your neigbbor put down for this?

Linear growth is defined by a growth with a regular change each step. The equation is something like y=2x where the sequence would be
0, 2, 4, 6, 8... (+2 to the result each step, no difference to the rate of change)

Quadratic growth is defined by a parabolic increase in tbe rate of change. The math equation is like y=x^2 so the sequence would be:
0, 1, 4, 9, 16... (+2 to the rate change each step (1, 3, 5, 7...)

Exponential (or geometric growth under limited conditions) is defined when the rate of change is proportional to the value itself. The math is of the form y=2^x so the sequence would be:
1, 4, 8, 16, 32... (Not only are the values going up but the rate of change is also quickly going up (3, 4, 8, 16) ) The faster it goes the faster it increases in going)

Feel free to check my answers against the key:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth

What tricks most people is that the results after 5 steps seem pretty close, not really a big deal; however this fails to realize how quickly the differences in the growth rate happen. So after 20 steps;
Linear: 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18, 20, ... 40
Quadratic; 0, 1, 4, 9, 16, 25, 36, 49, 64, 81, 100 ... 400
Exponential: 0, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024 ... 1048576

As seen with the spreading of viruses, an exponential change each step quickly outraces the other forms of growth (and most people's ability to grasp the pattern and predict the future - 26, 52, 104, 208, 416, 832, 1664 cases in about 3 weeks)

I'm not sure exactly what the equation is for the example you gave (do you know?) - but it appears to be some aggressive exponenial like y=x^x^x which will grow extremely fast, but this isn't even required to overwhelm the system. A simple 1.15^x like we're seeing most days will reach the same result in short order.

As Newton invented/discovered the calculus (math about the rates of change) while on leave from Trinity College in Cambridge during London's Black Plague of 1665, I make this mathematical offering to the integral and differential gods of COVID-19 in the hope they either slow their roll or passover my humble and observant abode.
http://www.openculture.com/2020/03/isaac...-1665.html

[ironyak]

New look in Nature yesterday at CFRs puts the risk higher for younger people than previously estimated. Could be 10x more deadly for a 45 year old than the seasonal flu.

https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/12...1953669121

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7

[Chunkster]

I called Harry Kim's office just before 10 a.m. today, and the woman with whom I spoke said, "There is no change in the mayor's position since the news reports of yesterday. They are in meetings right now, though, so that could change." I told her in clear, polite, and firm language that I have found his response up to this point the be dangerously lacking.

[kander]

The price of having a free and open society is that we have a reactive government. In other words, freedom of movement and travel is placed high and only when dire situations are presented will those priorities change.

[Obie]

I'm watching the live stream. They are grilling Harry right now. He is still defending his piss poor response.