(02-28-2021, 09:42 PM)leilanidude Wrote: Most cases were never tested as positive - those folks that simply felt a symptom or two for a few days and didn't bother to get tested. i am pretty sure i had it back in June as well as family members.
Ok, so the CDC estimates that 1 out of every 4.6 cases of Covid-19 get reported...
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nco...urden.html
Which, based on the number of reported cases (which as kalianna reported is approx 2,200) here on Hawaii Island, we then can assume there’s been something like 10,120 cases here overall. Plus now we can add to that the number of folks already vaccinated, which today is reported as 27,135...
https://health.hawaii.gov/coronavirusdis...in-hawaii/
And we come up with a grand total of 37,255 people that MIGHT be immunized.
And, considering that the island population is roughly 201,500 people we can assume that something north of 20% of the population is immune.
But that doesn’t take into account that just because one gets Covid-19 there is no data that suggests any particular amount of time afterwards that they are immune to further infection. In fact, my cousin, who got it in the spring, was told by his doctor that the evidence is suggesting a period of immunity following infection of about 3 - 4 month..
So, please help me here, how close does all that suggest we really are to herd immunity?
And to the original point of this thread.. I wouldn't go into a public gathering at this point for anything. And I certainly wouldn't encourage others to do so. In fact I would do all I can to stop those I know and love from going. It is nuts. And even if leilanidude is right, to break from our cautious stance now, before we really are immune, is just inviting more trouble..