What will you do if/when Ebola gets here?

[Wao nahele kane]

I just ran this thing down using up to date data.
If we use the infected number of people since December of 2013 it's 7,491 people in basically 9 months with a death toll of 3,439. That gives us a mortality rate of 49.908%.

Now these numbers don't seem really impressive at first glance but if we work with them to find out the other facts that underlay the data, things begin to change.

By using the above data as fixed constants and the time frame it occurred in we find that the infectious transmission is 1.392 persons per person infectious using 10 day intervals as the control period of spread. That still appears to be nothing alarming.

Here's the part that raises the eyebrow.
1.392^68.43749985 = 6.766 billion infected with 3.106 billion deaths.
The 68.43749985 represents 22.5 months into the pandemic or 68.5 iterations of 10 day periods and we are currently 9 month into it. This means we have approximately 13.5 months remaining until the majority of the 7.1 billion world population is infected.

Don't get over excited about these numbers, they merely represent the current trend in the transmission and current averaged mortality rate.

So, if we stand by and allow what has been occurring to continue without serious measures to contain it... we could very well be facing the 13.5 months remaining time before the majority of the world populace is infected.

Anyone is welcome to verify the results for themselves.

[mmbvd7]

I still am curious how the four Americans, who have become infected, got infected. Was there a fail in their precaution techniques or devices? A needle stick? How did the camera man become infected? The physician he was filming appeared to be well suited up when in areas with infected individuals. Was he not? Can mosquitoes pass this from infected individuals to the next human they prey on? How long does the virus live outside of the host? Can the virus be reconstituted from dried bodily fluids? I would like to see this information out to educate the public. Perhaps this would diminish fears (or depending upon the information increase fears).

Best wishes

[Wao nahele kane]

BTW... I am not intending to spread fear. I'm just using the current known data and roughly estimating the current transmission rate. Unfortunately that information isn't looking favorable.

Some of my concerns revolve about the rural nature of the countries we are talking about here. When we toss something like this into a densely populated city with subways, trains, planes, busses, elevators, handrails, central stores jam packed with people etc. What happens then? One sneeze spreads a lot of crap everywhere. It may not be airborne yet alone but it can live in the particulate matter of a sneeze which can be airborne and if the ppm is great enough and inhaled by another person... they win the viral ticket.

[Jeremy Lutes]

quote:

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Originally posted by Mendo

Needless Hysteria... There are real concerns affecting our health, this is not one.

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I think it is exactly that attitude that is going to be our undoing.

Currently the WHO says that the number of cases of ebola is doubling every twenty days.

I found these articles most helpful:

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/20...a_outbreak (from Aug 14th)

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/12/opinio...ebola.html (from Sept. 11th)

http://www.tulsaworld.com/laurie-garrett...ba0b9.html (long, from Sept. 21st)

And finally, for a look at possible broader systemic implications of this epidemic, including lots of links to references, these articles by Mary Odum, daughter of esteemed ecologist H. T. Odum:

http://prosperouswaydown.com/4s-surge-capacity/ (from Sept. 21st)

http://prosperouswaydown.com/uncharted-t...overshoot/ (from Sept. 29th)

Hope those are of use to some folks.

[PaulW]

Despite some saying half of us will be dead in a year, the reality is that ebola is easily stopped with simple precautions.
This will be bad for some of Africa, not so for the rest of us.

Just the latest hysteria. Some people love the thrill.

[TomK]

I thought we were all going to be dead by now from SARS. What information is the government withholding from us now? One person has been diagnosed with ebola in the US and suddenly 300 million people should do, er, what? Panic?

[lavarat]

I am still terrified of mad cows.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

While the infectious rate numbers for Ebola may be correct for areas with poor sanitation and limited medical facilities, they don't hold in 1st world countries. Just as malaria and dengue fever are still problems in 3rd world countries, they have been effectively reduced or eradicated in most 1st world areas. Malaria was still a serious problem in the US until the 1950's, until it was eradicated.

We have the ability to test for Ebola, treat it, and isolate it. Almost none of this is possible in the three countries with the highest number of cases.

Please, continue to pay your mortgages, student loans, and FICA taxes. Keep calm and carry on.

[PaulW]

ISIS members with Western passports are visiting Liberia in order to contract Ebola, and are then flying to the US via Europe.
We are all doomed.

Hey, if you want to do fear-mongering then do it right!

[PunaMauka2]

OMG!!! phew, good one Paul, had me going there for a split second.

pure speculation of my own here... i have a hunch all these zombie apocalypse movies/themes in recent years have increased the tendency for the seemingly fairly widespread heightened panicky speculation about an Ebola outbreak we have been seeing over the past few days.

informed attention and genuine concern, yes. panicky speculation, no need.

edit addition: one of the things which concerned me was why the 4 family members were kept in isolation inside of that decontaminated apartment for several days? seems that would be extremely dangerous for them. why weren't they kept in isolation elsewhere in safety away from likely infectious contamination? Texas health authorities seemed to have made a bad call on that one.