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“Your guess is as good as ours.”
"We carefully tabulated all these figures into colorful charts/graphs/maps because our advertisers will pay to be next to the pretty graphics. The fact that we're not reaching a meaningful conclusion is clearly a failure on the part of the reader."
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kalakoa - Out of 15744 tests. Meaning: approximately 1.1% of the population has been tested, and of those, approximately 2.9% were positive.
Those 15744 are total samples tested, not people. There are almost always multiple samples taken per person so it's quite a bit less than 1.1% of the population that have been tested (so even less statistically significant
CDC's old 3 sample guidelines (copy & paste the full link)
https://web.archive.org/web/202002020509...imens.html
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quote:
Originally posted by kalakoa
and of those, approximately 2.9% were positive..
That's a very low number of positives. I'm wondering how they qualified for testing.
A random sample of asymptomatic individuals tested in a community with even just a little bit of community spread would likely turn up more than this.
So, I take this number to be very good news regardless if it's deemed statistically significant or not.
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That's a very low number of positives. I'm wondering how they qualified for testing.
Indeed. Either great or terrible news, only time will tell.
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Durian Fiend wrote:
"
Substantially less than the peak required beds projected by IHME in 4 days. I think it says 390! https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-st...ica/hawaii"
You need to look at the projections on that site a little more carefully as they come with uncertainties plus they change on a daily basis. Indeed right now, the projection is 390 at the predicted peak, but that number is +/- 1664/317 (I suspect there is a log scale involved in the calculation which is why + is so much greater than -). At the moment, the hospitilzation rates are within predicted values. It's just fortunate that they are currently at the lower end of the predictions.
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Hopefully we have benefited here on the BI from being "rural" and starting our quarantine before we got too far along on the curve.
A lot of the news about healthcare and service workers seems to suggest viral load plays a role in severity as well. Many of us here work and live in relatively "open air" non-climate-controlled environments. Maybe that is keeping the load down, as demonstrated in some of those "airborne droplets" videos. There's so much to be learned here, and a great opportunity for some "citizen science" type surveys.
Some bad news I've seen: that the antibody counts for the recovered are rather low, suggesting immunity may not be strong or lasting in all patients. Let's hope that's just a mistake or too small of a sample, because the implications would not be good for our more vulnerable or the economy.
Some good news: Australians have identified Ivermectin (anti-parasite drug) as a potential anti-viral, and are beginning tests. Even if we cannot build effective immunity to Covid-19, finding a good drug like this to "knock it out" would be a game changer.
I hope when all this is over, people have a new respect for science and how important it is to our survival as a species!
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Australians have identified Ivermectin (anti-parasite drug) as a potential anti-viral,
I recognize that name, ivermectin, as something I got from the vet for my dogs awhile ago.
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quote:
Originally posted by TomK
Durian Fiend wrote:
"Substantially less than the peak required beds projected by IHME in 4 days. I think it says 390! https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-st...ica/hawaii"
You need to look at the projections on that site a little more carefully as they come with uncertainties plus they change on a daily basis. Indeed right now, the projection is 390 at the predicted peak, but that number is +/- 1664/317 (I suspect there is a log scale involved in the calculation which is why + is so much greater than -). At the moment, the hospitilzation rates are within predicted values. It's just fortunate that they are currently at the lower end of the predictions.
Hospitalization number is not currently within predicted values from that site, it's below. Bottom number for April 9 is 50, total number hospitalized so far in Hawaii is given as 42. I would imagine not all of those people are still hospitalized.
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yeah, the heartquard for dogs might also help against rat lungworm in dogs, some preliminary studies have been encouraging there also. wouldn't it be funny if we all were taking it once a month with our doggies? of course bill gates wouldn't like that one bit, or bayer would just raise it prices, either way someone will make a profit if it works...
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https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/04/1...se-to-464/
"Hawaii Department of Health officials announced two more deaths from the coronavirus today and said the statewide tally of confirmed cases has risen to 464, up 22 from Thursday.
No immediate details about the seventh death were released but officials said the eighth death was on Maui. The previous six deaths include four Oahu cases and two on Maui.
Of all the confirmed cases in Hawaii since the start of the outbreak, 42 have required hospitalizations, with no new cases reported today, health officials said.
Today’s statewide total includes 343 cases on Oahu, 65 in Maui County, 31 on Hawaii island, and 19 in Kauai County, according to health officials.
On Thursday, health officials announced seven new COVID-19 cases in Hawaii, the lowest daily increase in more than two weeks. Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell and Honolulu police Chief Susan Ballard, meanwhile announced increased enforcement of stay-at-home emergency orders, including a pilot curfew program starting tonight. The Honolulu Fire Department will also start using drones at several Oahu beaches to monitor compliance with the emergency orders, city officials announced earlier today."
