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Has anyone else been watching the weather models?
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11-01-2014, 02:05 PM
quote: Please don't. I enjoy your posts quite a bit, even the technical ones.
11-01-2014, 05:59 PM
Aloha everyone. Vance is headed toward Mexico, not towards us. Major models are still showing activity to our south. The European model is steadfast that all activity will remain south of 15N, while the GFS is pulling a shallow closed circulation overhead around next weekend. Either solution looks wet. I'll keep an eye on things. Night.
11-01-2014, 06:40 PM
"Agreed. Harry, some of us can't access FB."
Some of us won't access FB. The forecasts look interesting but can't see anything indicating a hurricane right now (famous last words! (*)). I suspect it might be a Kona low, but am not an expert in the field. (*) http://youtu.be/NnxjZ-aFkjs (Hurricane force winds hit the UK a few hours later and caused an awful lot of damage and several deaths - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Storm_of_1987)
11-01-2014, 09:49 PM
Aloha One of the reasons I just joined Punaweb was to meet other "weather" people. I thought your all in 1 page on Hurricane Ana was excellent-Thank you!
This is long winded and maybe there is a better place to discuss this and I'll monitor responses. As a lifelong weather observer I believe Hurricane Ana was created as a warm air response to the modified Polar air pocket that brought our first Mauna Kea snow around the middle of Oct. 2014. On satellite it looked like this pocket of cold air literally bounced off the ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) and then moved back North into the North Central Pacific where it became stationary. It amazed me to watch Ana actually seem to seek out the cold pocket of air and settle some of their differences at sea- one heck of a storm was observed just North/Northwest of the Islands at that time. Then what was left of Ana got caught up in the Westerlies and dumped copious amount of snow on the mountains of British Columbia. Still being relatively warm air this triggered a cold air response from the North Pacific and just brought beneficial rains to Calif. and to us. We're now on the tail end of that Polar front-lots and lots of rain and you can see the whiplash effect on a satellite map and creating yet again a warm air response. Conditions are much different now as sea surface temps have cooled after Sept. It's getting late to support a hurricane but could happen. This is the first time I have ever seen 28 degree Celsius = about 82 degrees Fahrenheit surround an Hawaiian Island, that island being Kauai; http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/E...%3A60%3Abb&T=Sep%202014 Water temps much cooler now; http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc/?sst Big changes in the water temperatures in the Pacific happening now; http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/ To conclude and looking at all the other factors I believe there's only a slight risk and mostly just to Kauai as the disturbed weather or deep convection is mostly to our South and West and the deep layered High in the North Central Pacific should keep things quiet. We have enough to worry about!
11-02-2014, 05:27 AM
Hi Harry
Whats your posistion on Geo-engineering (weather modification) - do you think it is all good , a mixed bag, or downright dangerous?
11-02-2014, 05:41 AM
Great post Ino (and Harry's as well) - wish we got a fraction of this intelligence from our pretty faces on the news channels...
I'm curious on your respective takes on the likelihood of an el nino winter here... Couple of other random thoughts to keep in mind: I think it was Iniki that was just before Thanksgiving and it was, I believe, a Kona low that hammered us in November of 2000 - (http://www.hilo.hawaii.edu/~nat_haz/floods/gallery.php) - so those events are nothing at all to dismiss as minor threats.
11-02-2014, 05:53 AM
European model is now showing a closed, but shallow, circulation detaching from the ITCZ. GFS has dropped the forecast central pressure from 1007 yesterday to 1005 today for the closest approach on Sunday. Still shallow, but I'd expect wind to be a factor in addition to rain if this scenario materializes.
http://harrysserver.com/ecmwf.jpg http://harrysserver.com/gfs.jpg http://harrysserver.com/nhc.jpg I'll keep posting here when there are potentially important weather events. But, I am putting my concentrated efforts on FB, because there's better support for images and videos and it allows more people to get involved. Also, I don't want to "clog up" the discussion boards here with my hobby.
11-02-2014, 06:07 AM
Okay, geo-engineering... I don't have any doubt that it is in our future. Carbon dioxide and methane are going to be expensive to remove and adaptation will be deemed a more fiscally efficient alternative. So, if it's going to happen, let's research the hell out of it. On a side, but related note, I believe in funding scientific research collectively, so that data can be freely shared. Private research has to pay for itself, and that can sometimes get in the way of free access.
El Nino winter? I'm still not sure how much of our current ENSO cycle is being effected by the winds in the western Pacific, or itself effecting the pressure gradient across the central Pacific. Kinda a chicken/egg thing. Plus, ocean circulations are partially driven by saline concentrations, and fresh water runoff + other factors have probably already changed what we consider to be normal. We haven't had a big El Nino since 1998. The Climate Prediction Center has been forecasting El Nino conditions to be likely for months now, and we're still not there. I guess, if they don't know, I certainly don't  http://harrysserver.com/elnino.jpg Our waters were around 1C warmer than normal this summer and we had a lot of action. I shudder to think what a full blown El Nino would bring.
11-02-2014, 06:12 AM
Hi Harry
Is Geo- engineering a topic you may have covered elsewhere? Or perhaps you haven't heard about? |
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