Hurricane season 2016

[PunaMauka2]

" However outer bands on tropical revolving storms often pack some high winds and sever rains. And the NW quadrant tends to be the roughest because of the direction of rotation and forward motion (see http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D6.html) ."


Woke up at dawn this morning to find a pretty good size hole punched through a 20X20 canopy tarp by a wayward falling branch .

But I know how to repair it with contact cement and scrap tarp.

Due to a reshuffle of priorities and a few other factors yesterday afternoon and evening I opted to take down the canopy at first light... and got bit small kine by those outlier bands of winds.

I think it was around 8ish this morning we had the biggest gusts thus far up in this neck of the Volcano woods. Still fairly gusty at the moment. Watching those treetops sway.

[terracore]

Hurricane watch cancelled:

WTPA25 PHFO 312052
TCMCP5

HURRICANE MADELINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016
2100 UTC WED AUG 31 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR HAWAII COUNTY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI AND
KAHOOLAWE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE OVER THE
NEXT
24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 154.2W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 5NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 5SW 15NW.
34 KT.......110NE 40SE 20SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 80SE 120SW 175NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 154.2W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 153.6W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 18.2N 155.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 5SW 15NW.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.9N 158.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 10SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.8N 160.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 20SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.8N 163.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.9N 168.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 18.0N 173.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 18.4N 177.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 154.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE

[Lodestone]

WU 11:00 update has it missing us to the south. On the other hand, it tells me to expect 37 MPH winds at around 2pm here in HS/HB.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/e...e-Madeline

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

it tells me to expect 37 MPH winds

I'll be happy to accept maximum winds of 37 mph from Madeline, after previous forecasts. Things are lookin' good.

- Be pleasant to inefficient workers; give them undeserved promotions. - Work slowly. - Refer all matters to committees for "further study and consideration. - Hold conferences. - Make travel as inconvenient as possible. - Haggle over precise wordings of communications. - Advocate “caution.” Be “reasonable” and avoid haste. (Excerpts from the WWII OSS Simple Sabotage Manual)

[leilanidude]

WU 11:00 update has it missing us to the south.
----

The eye of the storm is missing us. The rest of the storm is still there, although weakened from yesterday.

[macuu222]

YES!!!!! Ill take tropical storm winds anyday....and so will my homeowners policy if I need it. One down....one to go.

[ericlp]

I love how all the guys on Oahu are telling 'US', how it's going to be much worse than iselle.

Think for winding up the people on the big island! Seriously, how would they know, most probably never even been here for a hurricane. Just keep reading the computer models.

[Lodestone]

quote:

---

Originally posted by leilanidude

WU 11:00 update has it missing us to the south.
----

The eye of the storm is missing us. The rest of the storm is still there, although weakened from yesterday.

---

Right. To clarify, the relatively small rim of the eye is MUCH windier than the giant blob of clouds you see on the weathermap. I think it's what gives people a false sense of security about hurricanes - they think they've experienced a hurricane before, but they've only been sideswiped by the fringes, which isn't much more than a bunch of rain.

The new WU forecast still claims 37 MPH winds are coming to my neighborhood...but nothing yet. Of course, there is still time for the eye to make a hard right, and our friends down at South Point are not out of the woods yet.

[terracore]

Anybody here a Wunderground station participant? I notice the cheapest participating unit is $299 which is a lot of coin but wondering if having a forecast for our little chunk of paradise might be worth it?

[knieft]

quote:

---

Originally posted by ericlp

I love how all the guys on Oahu are telling 'US', how it's going to be much worse than iselle.

Think for winding up the people on the big island! Seriously, how would they know, most probably never even been here for a hurricane. Just keep reading the computer models.

---

I think this is just the price of admission, as they say, since the media will sensationalize the reports from the weather folks, who have to err on the side of caution.

I can't speak highly enough of the Dark Sky app (which I guess is android now as well--but can't speak for the android version). Yes, it uses one computer model, but gives a playable map of anywhere in the world that goes from a few days before present (actual data) straight through to several days after present (forecast). Other screens show minute, hourly, and daily micro forecasts up to a week ahead, that can be viewed as temperature, wind, humidity, precipitation, and uv index. Use your actual location or go to anywhere worldwide. Much more useful that a single line on the computer model graphic at wunderground.com. I think I paid $5. It is one of my most used apps, for sure, and _lovely_ during these weather crisis times.

Dark Sky is dependent on the Naalehu station for decent accuracy in the micro forecasts, but even when that station is down, the macro stuff is available.

And _way_ more useful than the text updates with longitude/latitude/knots/etc. (I never know what I am supposed to make of that kind of data. Am I stupid or what?)

At least it gives you some more info/context to read between the lines on the official weather service updates, which have always been extra cautious by design.

I suspect if Dark Sky is one day way off on it's forecast, that the NWS will be as well.

I am somehow reminded of huddling around the tv watching ripples in the water from the coconut island webcam years ago when the tsunami "hit".

Yes, better prepared than not--but a little caution from the NWS along with a little of sensationalism from the media can mean that reports of our demise have been greatly exaggerated...happily!

Cheers,
Kirt