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While most, but not all, deaths from COVID-19 are the elderly, most cases of infection are actually in the younger populations. This means potentially millions of "Typhoid Marys" who are unknowingly spreading the virus to many other people, including those more likely to die.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/12...2978343937
It's not just about the threat to your health, it's your threat to the health of your community. Stay safe, stay healthy, stay home!
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quote:
Originally posted by ironyak
I wonder if most people's take away from the usually reported 2.4% or 4% death rate stats generally used is that 4 out of a 100 people will die. But that seems very contradictory to the per capita calculations.
Briefly, your per capita calculations don't account for the fact that there has not been 100% infection so while the deaths for the total population are small now, they would approach 3% or 4% IF everyone gets infected (which is what social distancing etc is trying to at least slow, or prevent if better therapeutics become available over time)
- "97% percent of people recover fine, what's the big deal?"
- "If I gave you 100 skittles and told you 3 of them could kill you.... I’m sure you would avoid the ****ing skittles"
https://twitter.com/MrDre_/status/1238612571193827335
I couldn't agree more that social distancing is very useful. I approach my risk of a car crash by wearing my seatbelt, defensive driving, etc.--of course, not to flatten out a curve but to increase my chances of a successful outcome (living).
I am confused about the curve though. I thought the point was that everyone will be exposed (I'm guessing this is different than infected, and healthy people aren't tested much...?) sooner or later, and that social distancing is to avoid crushing the medical infrastructure during peak death time, so more folks can avoid fatality.
I have always assumed that easily transmitted infections are nearly ubiquitous, and that most everyone is exposed during, say, a normal flu season. How are infection rates gathered? Are the unknown percentage of folks have no major symptoms assumed NOT to be infected? If they were infected and their immune system took care of it to the point of testing negative, never having a symptom--is that person considered never infected?
It is indeed ironic that the flaw you point out in the much lessor rates per capita assume 100% infection rate. Which should be "worse" in a way.
Stats are truly amazing. As are metaphors! I didn't know we had a choice of saying no to the skittles ingestion, only the _when_ of ingestion.
I think the motivation for social distancing is likely less affected by folks' understanding of the relatively abstract and altruistic idea of flattening the curve, and more affected by self-interest (I don't want to die, don't want my loved ones to die). Granted, flattening the curve affects that outcome as well, to a degree.
Sooner or later they are gonna get a skittles. Not so much something we can ****ing avoid.
Please don't read any of this as not supporting social distancing, etc. Maybe misleading stats and metaphors are what's needed to scare enough folks into social distancing for it to make a significant difference. It appears to be working so far.
Cheers,
Kirt
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quote:
Originally posted by ironyak
So there are ~1000 children (age 0-19) in the Pahoa school complex. That means if all these kids get exposed, 1 of them would likely die.
For their ~2000 parents (age 20 - 60): 7 of them would likely die
For their ~4000 grandparents (age 60+): 352 of the would likely die
So that's at least 360 people from one school area's community that would likely die from this (no aunties and uncles accounted for). IF everyone is exposed to the virus, we all will know someone who dies from COVID-19.[/b]
Love your research wizardry and eloquent sharing and summaries, ironyak, but gotta ask about this one, especially since it rings such an alarm.
The median age of all Hawaiians is just below 40, and Puna's Pahoa complex is likely similar, or at least in that ballpark.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/states...opulation/
How can 1000 school kids have 4000 grandparents?
Maybe there are 8000 great grandparents in the 80 plus range with a likely to die rating over 1000? How about 16,000 great great grandparents?
Cheers,
Kirt
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knieft - social distancing is to avoid crushing the medical infrastructure during peak death time, so more folks can avoid fatality.
All NPIs (non pharmaceutical interventions like hand-washing, social distancing, etc) are to slow the spread of the infection. This both allows for less critical cases to end up in the hospital at once and overwhelm it, as well as developing better treatments and therapies over time. By flattening the curve it gives a chance for doctors to work out best treatment regiments, various therapeutics to be tested, and on a long enough time frame, a vaccine to be found (all of which are much harder to do when many people are dying at once).
If a vaccine is found, or if the virus mutates to a much less contagious form like was seen with the Spanish flu, not everybody need be infected.
most everyone is exposed during, say, a normal flu season. How are infection rates gathered?
Not everyone catches the flu each season. Seasonal flu rates are gathered as part of the Influenza like illness (ILI) Surveillance network that randomly tests samples from physicians around the country and then models out what those numbers may mean in the wider population.
https://health.hawaii.gov/docd/about-us/...e-program/
Are the unknown percentage of folks have no major symptoms assumed NOT to be infected? If they were infected and their immune system took care of it to the point of testing negative, never having a symptom--is that person considered never infected?
Depends on how you are testing - South Korea is randomly sampling their population regardless of symptoms and are finding that the vast majority of cases are in the younger individuals, although they are often symptom free. That allows them to act as "Typhoid Marys" who unknowingly spread the virus to others more at risk.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/12...2978343937 (see chart)
Given the urgency of the situation, there are few people concerned about counting the infected, but not ill, totals. In the future (should there be one  researchers may be able to test for antibodies to find those that fought off the virus without even realizing it.
(I don't want to die, don't want my loved ones to die).
Regardless of motivation, the outcome is the same, which is the important part.
what's needed to scare enough folks into social distancing for it to make a significant difference. It appears to be working so far.
If people don't take it seriously, they invite the worse outcomes. If people take it seriously, there is a better chance of never seeing the worse outcomes and people naysaying the predictions.
Those in public health are willing to appear to be wrong in the end, instead of gambling millions of lives to see if their predictions were right.
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Fair enough, ironyak.
Cheers,
Kirt
From the US Census guys..
State's population as a bit over 1.5 mil. Elderly population (state wide) is something north of 18%.
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Love your research wizardry and eloquent sharing and summaries
https://worldpopulationreview.com/states...opulation/
How can 1000 school kids have 4000 grandparents?
Part of the struggle for those of us that work to bridge the scientific results with the general public is how to communicate technical details and statistics in a way that people can understand. Some of that effort involves simplifying the models and data to a point of common comprehensibility (such as moving from "Overall 3% percent mortality from a world-wide aggregation of clinical outcomes for the SARS-Cov-2 outbreak of 2020" versus "3 killer skittles" - the first is more accurate, the second more generally understandable).
The mortality rates world wide by age can be found here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...ographics/
In my example I simply grouped the blocks into cohorts and then averaged their moralities.
- Kids (0-19 yrs) = (0+0.2) / 2 = 0.1% CFR
- Parents (20-60 yrs) = (0.2+0.2+0.4+1.3) / 4 = 0.525% CFR
- Grandparents (60+ yrs) = (3.6+8.0+14.8)/3 = 8.8% CFR
Pahoa school complex has around 1000 students (age 0-19), who roughly have 2 parents each. Some will have single parents, some will have additional step-parents, some will have childless aunties and uncles that are part of the "Parental" age group. Without the specific demographics, 2 seems a reasonable and easy to understand estimate.
Similarly, the "Grandparent" group would include great uncles and aunties without children of their own. So while some kids only have 1 or 2 or less grandparents, some have 5 or 6 or more relatives in this age bracket that are attached to them. Again, without specific demographics, 4 is an understandable estimate, even if the real number is less or more.
You combine the average CFRs and estimated populations to reach the few hundred deaths possible in the Pahoa schools if everyone is infected. Even if you only give a child 2 relatives in the "grandparent" age group you still reach 176 deaths in this group and a couple hundred total, 1 "grandparent" relative leads to about 100 deaths.
So after fiddle-****ing around with what are the exact numbers to the last digit, the outcome is all going to be the same. Hundreds of preventable deaths if nothing is done. Is it ok if 100 people in Puna die from this? How about 200? 500? How many deaths does it take before the actual people involved are more significant than the statistics?
Here is a video from Italy showing how in early February the obituaries in the local paper only took up about a page and a half. Five weeks later, there are now ten pages of obituaries. Maybe if people bothered to take some simple steps back then, this could have been avoided, if only to save killing a few extra trees.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/14/heartbreak...-on-italy/
I would also note that for those of us that have spent decades acquiring the education and professional experience needed to spend hours to put together these little attempts at communicating the information so people understand the situation, there comes a breaking point. This pandemic doesn't care about anyone's personal opinions or their inability to do math. The exponential equations that underlay the spread of this disease are cold and impersonal and without pity or remorse. I would hope people would be able to add some humanity to these calculations by giving just a small bit of concern for the well-being of others in their community and taking reasonable actions to prevent them from dying.
But that obviously remains to be seen - I guess keep checking the newspapers.
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State's population as a bit over 1.5 mil. Elderly population (state wide) is something north of 18%.
and... so?
https://images.app.goo.gl/skdH4hSMGDJQuNiF9
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Ironyak: This pandemic doesn't care about anyone's personal opinions or their inability to do math.
Fair enough.
Cheers,
Kirt
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