Posts: 2,314
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quote:
Originally posted by standingby
I also recall that many economists actually said the recesssion was coming but people like you refused to listen.
Please name one who predicted in 2006 that the real estate prices will drop 54% in Phoenix and 2/3rd of all mortgages will be under water in 2011. One, just one. Nobody have seen this coming, nobody. The bright side I look at is that I just bought a lot right next to a lot that I bought in 2000 for $10,000. While I sold that lot when the price hit my selling point, guess how much I paid for this new lot! $10,000 again! I will be smiling to the bank again instead of standing by! [  ][ ][ ]
Aloha,
John S. Rabi, GM,PB,ABR,CRB,CM,FHS
888.819.9669
johnrabi@johnrabi.com
http://www.JohnRabi.com
Typically Tropical Properties
"The Next Level of Service!"
(This is what I think of the Kona Board of Realtors http://KonaBoardOfRealtors.info)
Posts: 735
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I and others on this forum said it was coming and I do have a degree in economics. I can't think of any names off hand but I did read numerous articles with the words "real estate bubble" in it back in 2006. Most people would consider a drop of more than 50% in any market to be the bursting of a "bubble". You can't deny that these articles were out there. You and most of your RE cohorts just joked and laughed at them. You especially were indignant when confronted with this. I remember how you all called these people "chicken littles". Except for John Dirgo that is. He had some idea of what was coming but diplomatically stayed out of the discussion.
Man if I was the one that was "helped" into buying your $10,000 lot with lots of your sales talk, I would be really pissed right now. Now you said you bought a similar lot for the same price you paid in 2000 and laughing about it. I recall you laughed and scoffed a lot back in 2006 too. You said you were laughing at the people staying on the sidelines like me and paying rent to you to live in one of your houses. With that kind of attitude I would never want to be a customer of yours.
At least you seemed to have learned a lesson from all this. You no longer make any bold predictions. Back in 2006 you were so cock sure, you just had to jump into any discussion about the future of real estate. Now you can't even say if we reached the bottom for fear of being wrong again.
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This has, again, become very tedious finger pointing, but there is a search, and there is history, so PLEASE stop this!:
http://www.punaweb.org/Forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=1653
"The article is a good example of people making statements even though they have no clue. They all talk about decline and bubble but the median prices actually increased everywhere but North Kohala since last April"
http://www.punaweb.org/Forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=1603
"People are screaming about the "bubble" but the truth is our market is down only 6% compared to the January-April 2005"
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Yes, there is a long history. Here are more links. The thread that got this all started, "The Decline in Realestate" has gone missing. Everyone has their own style and part of Rabi's seems to be to mockingly belittle anyone who criticizes him. He did a lot of that in that thread and that's what got me riled. I'll stop now if Rabi does.
http://punaweb.org/Forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=7457
http://punaweb.org/Forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=5579
http://punaweb.org/Forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=1862
http://punaweb.org/Forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=1743
http://punaweb.org/Forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=1526
http://punaweb.org/Forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=7750
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I been looking at some lots on Hilo side- how do do you tell the realtor you going bid half of the list price?? But I been trying to sell my lot on Kamuela side for same price I bought it for in 2007- how come it's taking so long??
i been buying HA as it come down below 5.5 then they announce they lost 50 mill last week- will it ever see 5 again??
Looks like HE dividend way over 5%- about 100 times better than you can get at their bank. If it goes under 20 I can only assume suspension of div and hostile takeout!!
Posts: 2,314
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quote:
Originally posted by standingby
I do have a degree in economics.
Sure you do, just like I have a PHD. You must be in love with me, you have been fixated on my postings for five years! I still say there are always good deals in real estate and that is what I explore for both myself and for my clients. Anyone paying rent when a mortgage would be less must have the same degree as you do. BTW, I'm checking out for your benefit.
Aloha,
John S. Rabi, GM,PB,ABR,CRB,CM,FHS
888.819.9669
johnrabi@johnrabi.com
http://www.JohnRabi.com
Typically Tropical Properties
"The Next Level of Service!"
(This is what I think of the Kona Board of Realtors http://KonaBoardOfRealtors.info)
Posts: 735
Threads: 20
Joined: May 2006
Yeah keep it up Rabi. I see some of your supporters such as KathyH and Stillhope have turned against you. I wonder why. And I really do have a BA in economics and I don't pay rent. I'm actually about to payoff my mortgage.
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From this page: http://forecastchart.com/real-estate-hawaii.html
Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates: Hawaii
1981 -52.79%
1982 70.74%
1983 22.48%
1984 3.39%
1985 7.65%
1986 5.04%
1987 9.59%
1988 22.93%
1989 21.71%
1990 23.97%
1991 4.74%
1992 0.58%
1993 0.32%
1994 -2.40%
1995 1.05%
1996 -9.00%
1997 -4.04%
1998 0.82%
1999 -3.06%
2000 6.51%
2001 8.32%
2002 8.38%
2003 14.36%
2004 25.64%
2005 24.03%
2006 6.13%
2007 0.87%
2008 -6.90%
2009 -7.80%
2010 0.00%
My take is if you bought by 2002, you have probably not lost appreciation. 2003-2004-2005 is a different story and based historically you may be waiting until 2013-2014-2015 for the market to appreciate again enough to cover the spread. But look back at the numbers 82-83 were big years, and 1988-1990.
If someone here bought their home in Hawaii in 1990 and still owns it, it would be interesting to see the percent appreciation if you would like to share it. This person would the long range real estate buyer, not a short range speculator.
Posts: 2,314
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Joined: Jun 2003
quote:
Originally posted by Kapohocat
If someone here bought their home in Hawaii in 1990 and still owns it, it would be interesting to see the percent appreciation if you would like to share it.
I can share it for you, my friends bought a house in Kona Palisades in 1990 for $177,500. They still live there. It is assessed at $353,000 now.
Aloha,
John S. Rabi, GM,PB,ABR,CRB,CM,FHS
888.819.9669
johnrabi@johnrabi.com
http://www.JohnRabi.com
Typically Tropical Properties
"The Next Level of Service!"
(This is what I think of the Kona Board of Realtors http://KonaBoardOfRealtors.info)
Posts: 1,839
Threads: 48
Joined: May 2007
Interesting stats,Cat. By those numbers, I figure if you use 2002, a $100,000 house then would now be worth about $162,000.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGeKSiCQkPw
Dan
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