Hurricane season 2016

[TomK]

Darby might be worth keeping an eye on. Its track has it approaching the islands in a week or so and models suggest it might re-intensify as it gets closer.

[terracore]

Time to wake this thread up.

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/32475...ard-hawaii

HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) -

Forecasters are watching Tropical Storm Darby closely, and say the cyclone could bring rain and gusty winds to the state this weekend.
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Tropical Storm Darby losing strength as it moves toward Central Pacific

The storm hasn't yet crossed into the Central Pacific, and is expected to continue weakening over the next several days. But meteorologists say the storm could still pack a powerful punch when it comes closer to the islands Saturday.

"Most of the systems we've had so far have turned to the north into colder water before they got to the islands," said Robert Ballard, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. "That may not happen in this case."

Ballard says computer models show Darby could come closer to the islands than any previous storms this year.

He expects it to weaken significantly before it reaches Hawaii, but things can quickly change. He's urging residents to be prepared for a worst case scenario.

"They do have to be ready for heavy rain, possibility of gusty winds and power outages," Ballard said.

Hawaii families certainly have lots of practice getting ready for storms. During 2015's hurricane season, the Central Pacific basin had a record 15 named storms. All of them missed Hawaii.

"The type of weather we get locally from Darby is going to be highly based on the exact track and how much it weakens before it gets to the islands," Ballard said.

Residents should remember that even a weakened storm can hit hard, he added. The Big Island learned that in 2014, when Tropical Storm Iselle caused major damage. Downed utility poles left some communities without power for weeks.

Experts say this year's La Nina weather pattern can help suppress hurricane activity. However, they predict five to eight tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific through November 30.

[terracore]

This storm is very interesting. It has the potential to become a hurricane again, and it also has the potential to directly hit the island, this is what the NWS has to say:

...t's the timing of the anticipated turn that has implications for weather in Hawaii,
and the details surrounding that introduce a greater than normal
amount of uncertainty to the forecast, especially with Darby slowing
just east of the Big Island. Noteworthy that the HWRF indicates
that the turn will not occur until after passing the longitude of
the Big Island.

The intensity forecast continues to be complicated by what appears
to be competing environmental factors. Darby will be moving over
slightly warmer water the next couple of days, but this is still
expected to be counteracted by moderate southwesterly shear, with
SHIPS guidance indicating an increase in shear over the next 24
hours before relaxing again in 48 to 72 hours. The official
forecast responds by indicating little change in strength through 24
hours, slight strengthening in 36 hours, then remaining steady state
until weakening later in the forecast period. The weakening on days
4 and 5 is expected to occur as shear increases and Darby begins to
move over cooler waters. The official forecast lies close to the
IVCN consensus, which lies between the much stronger HWRF/GHM which
make Darby a hurricane again, and the weaker SHIPS/LGEM that
continue to indicate a slow but steady weakening...

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/arc...1607210259

ETA: bolded dramatic text.

[Tink]

Indeed it does look like Darby is heading straight for Hilo at a pretty good clip.

Community begins with Aloha

[kander]

Well at least we dont have as many trees to fall. Just the rest of them.

[terracore]

They have increased the sustained forecast wind speed for Sunday to 65 mph with gusts to 75. Wasn't Iselle just under 60 mph when it hit?

For the third forecast in a row, the "cone" has shifted closer to the BI.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.2N 154.4W (Sunday)
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 0SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

If Darby follows it's turn to the north as is currently forecast, we should be on the edge of the storm. We would be in the area that has a 50% chance of 39 MPH sustained winds. With higher gusts:

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/display_probwinds.php?stormid=EP052016&latest=y#prob34

“What we take to be true is what we believe. What we believe is based upon our perceptions. What we perceive depends on what we look for. What we look for depends on what we think. What we think depends on what we perceive. What we perceive determines what we believe. What we believe determines what we take to be true. What we take to be true is our reality." -David Bohm

[Kiana]

______________________________________________________________________

Well at least we dont have as many trees to fall. Just the rest of them.

______________________________________________________________________

When I read this post I laughed, and thought it was clever, and true.

Then I recalled Iselle and our nine days without power in the heat of summer and my stomach turned.

Please do prepare, all. Blessings!

[Eric1600]

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 KT


The speed is high enough that this 48 hour forecast is likely to be what will happen. However that 48 hour point is prior to the turn to the north and is still offshore of Hawaii:

48 hr Forecast
Valid at: 8:00 AM HST Sat July 23, 2016
Location: 18.9 N, 153.6 W
Maximum Wind: 55 knots (65 mph)
Wind Gusts: 65 knots (75 mph)

The sudden northward trend caused by the upper atmosphere has its own set of error predictions that compound to make turns like this less likely. In 24 hours there should be a better understanding and updated guidance to indicate how real this turn might be.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

11 AM Thursday Update:

Darby now projected to pass directly over Puna.
The center of the storm is forecast to move over the coast of the Big Island from Cape Kumukahi through Hilo then Hamakua:

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics...d=EP052016

“What we take to be true is what we believe. What we believe is based upon our perceptions. What we perceive depends on what we look for. What we look for depends on what we think. What we think depends on what we perceive. What we perceive determines what we believe. What we believe determines what we take to be true. What we take to be true is our reality." -David Bohm