Hurricane season 2016

[Lodestone]

Looks like it is edging south a bit... fingers crossed.
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/e...e-Madeline

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Near the HPP coastline Wednesday morning:

Powerful storm waves pounded the ocean cliffs all night, if the forecast holds they should become even stronger throughout the day, up to 20-25 feet.
A brisk wind blew in from out of the east about 5:30 this morning, bringing with it the start of some medium intensity rain showers.
Nothing Tropical Storm strength yet, but we're either on the edge of the storm, or close to it.
Hope everyone is ready.

- Be pleasant to inefficient workers; give them undeserved promotions. - Work slowly. - Refer all matters to committees for "further study and consideration. - Hold conferences. - Make travel as inconvenient as possible. - Haggle over precise wordings of communications. - Advocate “caution.” Be “reasonable” and avoid haste. (Excerpts from the WWII OSS Simple Sabotage Manual)

[Chunkster]

According to the 5 am advisory, Madeline's forward speed and rate of weakening both seem to have accelerated. If it follows the forecast track, it looks like the closest approach to the south Puna coast will be about 2 pm with the strongest winds offshore. Let's hope that holds true.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

When you finish your storm prep, here's an informative article about hurricanes in Hawaii, touching on both the historical, and what we might expect in the future:

Since 1949, just five storms of tropical storm strength or greater have made landfall on any island in Hawaii, including two in the past three years. Having two hurricanes hit in the span of just a few days would be exceedingly rare.
...
But there’s growing evidence of a possible climate change signal, too. In a new review of the causes of the hyperactive 2015 season that has been submitted to the Journal of Climate, a research team led by Hiroyuki Murakami of Princeton University found that abnormally high ocean temperatures consistent with human-caused climate change played a “dominant role” in boosting the frequency of Pacific hurricanes, in addition to the natural effect from El Nino.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-...this-week/

- Be pleasant to inefficient workers; give them undeserved promotions. - Work slowly. - Refer all matters to committees for "further study and consideration. - Hold conferences. - Make travel as inconvenient as possible. - Haggle over precise wordings of communications. - Advocate “caution.” Be “reasonable” and avoid haste. (Excerpts from the WWII OSS Simple Sabotage Manual)

[macuu222]

Meanwhile in Kona 5 minutes ago!

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1408401939177263&set=a.580831201934345.148778.100000224115565&type=3&theater

[terracore]

At 0630 the winds were howling and the gutters overflowing. Now the skies are bright and there isn't enough of a breeze to move a leaf.

[randomq]

I always manage to put my plywood up in the rain, and then sit in my stuffy house with not a drop in sight.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Anyone else ready to make their best guesses for Madeline? Please, as always, no wagering:

I think Madeline will be a serious storm for Puna, approaching the intensity of Iselle, but with slightly lower wind speeds, perhaps 5-10 mph less. Highest winds for Puna will be Wednesday afternoon, perhaps between 1 PM & 5 PM??
Power will go out Wednesday afternoon between 2-3 PM (in HPP).
Rainfall? Buckets and buckets. Catchments will be overflowing.
Road closures? I won't touch that one.


- Be pleasant to inefficient workers; give them undeserved promotions. - Work slowly. - Refer all matters to committees for "further study and consideration. - Hold conferences. - Make travel as inconvenient as possible. - Haggle over precise wordings of communications. - Advocate “caution.” Be “reasonable” and avoid haste. (Excerpts from the WWII OSS Simple Sabotage Manual)

[KiminPL]

quote:

---

Originally posted by terracore

At 0630 the winds were howling and the gutters overflowing. Now the skies are bright and there isn't enough of a breeze to move a leaf.

---

...wait for it...

pretty sure Madeline won't sneak past unnoticed...

[terracore]

The same thing happened with Darby. There was a nasty wind/rain that came through about 12 hours before Darby approached. It was actually more wind and rain than we saw from Darby itself.

From the 8am interim:

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Madeline was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 153.6 West. Madeline is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Madeline is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later today or
tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches).

Haven't decided on the plywood yet. Leaning towards no.