Hurricane season 2016

[ElysianWort]

I'm right there with you randomq. I went ahead and boarded up the house for the second time in all my years here. Now I sit and wait as the sun comes out.

[terracore]

Meanwhile with Lester:

The initial motion estimate is 270/10. Lester will continue to be
steered westward and then turn west-northwestward by an expansive
mid-level ridge extending across much of the central and eastern
Pacific Ocean through the forecast period. The track model
guidance is in generally good agreement on this scenario, however,
there remains some significant across-track spread in the guidance
near the Hawaiian Islands. The UKMET and GEFS ensemble mean are
along the southern edge of the guidance envelope with a track closer
to the Big Island, while the HWRF and GFDL are farther north of the
island chain. The ECMWF, GFS, and consensus aids lie between these
scenarios just north of the islands. The new NHC forecast is
largely an update of the previous one and lies between the multi-
model consensus and the latest GFS track.

All interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the
progress of Lester, as it is too early to determine what impacts
there could be along the island chain from this tropical cyclone
given the track forecast uncertainty in 3 to 5 days.

[knieft]

quote:

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Originally posted by HereOnThePrimalEdge

Anyone else ready to make their best guesses for Madeline? Please, as always, no wagering:

I think Madeline will be a serious storm for Puna

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It's not me, but the Dark Sky app that says not so much. Average winds peaking at noon today at 24 mph. Chance of heavy rains 70% through Thursday. The time-lapse map shows the whole thing busting up now and bouncing south like a mis-hit pong.

Going south (https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/e...?map=model).

My kind of hurricane! Our satellite internet down at home. DirecTV still fine. Not sure I'll even take down the laundry drying on the covered lanai.

Cheers,
Kirt

[kimo wires]

The edge of the High pressure ridge was in the Kauai channel yesterday and has pushed south today into the Alenuihaha pushing the hurricane further south. If you want to see what's happening in real time this is the best site

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi...084,20.133

[VancouverIslander]

quote:

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Originally posted by ElysianWort

I'm right there with you randomq. I went ahead and boarded up the house for the second time in all my years here. Now I sit and wait as the sun comes out.

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Better prepared for something that doesn't come than unprepared for something that does imho.

Me ka ha`aha`a,
Mike

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Meanwhile with Lester:

Thanks for posting terracore. Should we lose power, or roads are closed (although sounding less likely), it would still be a good idea to look in at Lester's path a few times today should our normal internet access be interrupted over the next few days:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics...ml?5-daynl

I'm glad to see I have an outlier view of Madeline. Hopefully those of you with assessments of a much weaker storm are right. I'm already starting to revise my expectations downward.

[Bullwinkle]

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-155.20961919697817&lat=19.434353661355686#.V8clVPkoTIV

latest nws forecast for volcano

[pahoated]

Hurricane Madeline was breaking up a few hours ago but has intensified again, looking like the eye won't be as south as it appeared a few hours ago. The breakup-reintensifying is almost like a boxer pulling his glove back into his robe then coming straight out with a sucker punch. These are the advance alternating wave fronts happening, like with all hurricanes. Wave of rain and wind, then wave of sunshine and calm. It is always the surge front that causes the damage. A significant part of the surge front is south of Lighthouse point.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/satellite/Ha...R_loop.gif

*Japanese tourist on bus through Pahoa, "Is this still America?*

[Eric1600]

ISS view of the current 3 hurricanes in action https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5d-lCAlfr5s

The intensity of Madeline has been difficult to forecast and each Hurricane Hunter sweep has reduced its strength some. So the forecasters have become more aggressive on its downgrading trend. However outer bands on tropical revolving storms often pack some high winds and sever rains. And the NW quadrant tends to be the roughest because of the direction of rotation and forward motion (see http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D6.html) . In the video the Atlantic hurricane has very well defined bands which you can see clearly. The advantage of just being hit with the outer bands is that they tend to be short duration but the wind directions and strength variations are crazy.

Forecasters are feeling pretty confident about the track now.

quote:

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While low cloud lines seen in a 1129Z VIIRS day night image hinted
that the low-level center of Madeline was becoming partially
exposed, a timely 1126Z GPM pass confirmed this. Using this
position, the initial motion vector for this advisory is 260/12 kt,
which represents a slight acceleration from previous advisories.
Despite a wider than normal spread in the along- and cross-track
guidance, most guidance has been consistent from run-to-run, and
there is little change in the track forecast philosophy presented
over the past couple of days.

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[ElysianWort]

Just got the first strong gust. It was about 45 mph for 8 seconds or so. 9:00 am Hawaiian acres