Pu'u O'o inflation

[SBH]

Wow, lots of earthquakes up at Halemaumau. I haven’t felt anything in Puna.

https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories...bcam=K2cam

[glinda]

quote:

---

Originally posted by Amrita

All of our would be volcanologists, any predictions?

---

A look around at the tidbits of instrument data HVO shares with the rest of us I see that indeed the Puu Oo vent area is in what might be described as a very heightened state of inflation. This is not as easily seen when looking at short term data such as the weekly tilt as seen at the top of HVO's deformation page here:

https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kil...ation.html

But if you look down at the bottom of the page at the Global Positioning System - Puu Oo Cone - Past Five Years plot you will see that the line length being measured has extended dramatically, which is indicative of inflation (ground rising) in the area. Further, while looking at this same plot you'll notice that the last time this type of event was seen was in May of 2016 which resulted in a new breakout on May 24, 2016 that started the flows to the South, to the sea. And, the time before that (on the plot) was in June of 2014 which started the fissure that produced the June 27th flow that went towards Pahoa. As such, I think it is reasonable to assume there is a good possibility that there will be a new fissure eruption on the flank of Puu Oo (which flank?) which will then start flows heading in whatever direction is topographically possible from there.

[Amrita]

From HVO 04/17: "Since mid-March 2018, a tiltmeter and GPS station on Pu'u '#332;'#333; have recorded a pronounced inflationary trend of the cone, and recent webcam images have detected simultaneous uplift of the Pu'u '#332;'#333; crater floor by several meters (yards). These observations provide evidence that magma is accumulating at shallow depths beneath Pu'u '#332;'#333;.

Similar episodes of inflation and uplift of the crater floor at Pu'u '#332;'#333; occurred in May–June 2014 and May 2016. These episodes preceded the opening of new vents on Pu'u '#332;'#333; that produced the June 27th flow (active 2014-2016) and the 61g flow (active since 2016), respectively.

[TomK]

Amrita,

"All of our would be volcanologists, any predictions?"

Let me give you the true scientific answer. We don't know and hence no predictions. That doesn't mean others won't provide predictions, just don't confuse them with scientists.

[TomK]

terracore,

"https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/st07500u.html

There is a correlation between the solar minimum cycle and increased volcanic activity on Earth."

Stothers, the author of the article you cite, changed his mind after further studies:

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1990GeoRL..17.1981S

"It has been occasionally suggested that large earthquakes may follow the 8.85-year and 18.6-year lunar-solar tidal cycles and possibly the approximately 11-year solar activity cycle. From a new study of earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 5.5 in southern and coastal central California during the years 1855-1983, it is concluded that, at least in this selected area of the world, no statistically significant long-term periodicities in earthquake frequency occur. The sample size used is about twice that used in comparable earlier studies of this region, which concentrated on large earthquakes."

[PaulW]

Thanks for the link terracore, I didn't notice you had posted it!
Even as a non-scientist, that sample size of theirs seemed suspiciously small. Thanks for the follow-up Tom.

The statement in the abstract about "a decrease in atmospheric pressure results in an increase in cosmic-ray flux"
really piqued my interest, I'll have to look into that.

[glinda]

quote:

---

Originally posted by TomK

Amrita,

"All of our would be volcanologists, any predictions?"

Let me give you the true scientific answer. We don't know and hence no predictions. That doesn't mean others won't provide predictions, just don't confuse them with scientists.

---

Actually... from westhawaiitoday.com:

HVO: Pressure building under Kilauea's Puu Oo vent

which in part reads:

Geologists say a new vent could open at the Puu Oo cone or along adjacent areas of Kilauea's East Rift Zone as pressure continues to build underneath.

The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory issued a notice Tuesday that there has been pronounced inflation of the cone since mid-March, which suggests a buildup of magma at shallow depths. Recent webcam images detected uplift on the Puu Oo crater floor of several yards.

“It is possible a part of the rift zone nearby Puu Oo within a few kilometers could be affected, but, most likely, it’s going to be at the cone,” said Steve Brantley, HVO deputy scientist-in-charge.

Which seems to suggests some scientists do make predictions, or warnings, or whatever you want to call them, when the evidence is strong enough (as it is in the instrumentation I pointed to in my earlier post) to support it.

The entire West Hawaii Today article is here:

http://www.westhawaiitoday.com/2018/04/1...u-oo-vent/

[Kapoho Joe]

quote:

---

Originally posted by Amrita

All of our would be volcanologists, any predictions?

---

Massive lava river from Volcano to Kapoho?

[TomK]

Glinda, I'm was not talking about predictions that Kilauea will erupt again, everyone knows it will. I was talking about precise predictions, i.e., when and where. I don't see any such predictions in the link you provided or your post.

[TomK]

Glinda wrote:

"Which seems to suggests some scientists do make predictions, or warnings, or whatever you want to call them, when the evidence is strong enough (as it is in the instrumentation I pointed to in my earlier post) to support it.

The entire West Hawaii Today article is here:

http://www.westhawaiitoday.com/2018/04/1...u-oo-vent/"

If we go by local publications, then:

http://www.hawaiitribune-herald.com/2018...on-puu-oo/

"Assuming that the current changes result in a new vent opening on or around Pu‘u ‘O‘o, the main question is, “where exactly will the vent appear?” Unfortunately, scientists are not able to determine with certainty where a new vent might open. But, it’s an important question, because the accompanying hazard will largely depend on the location (and duration) of the vent."

So am still struggling to see how Kilauea or Mauna Loa eruptions and when or where they occur can be predicted.