When and WHERE will it pop up next? Guesstimates

[My 2 cents]

County's mismanagement is pretty consistent

Consistently increasing.

[ElysianWort]

But seriously... Mauna Loa

I thought about that possibility too. She hasn't gone in a little while. Overdue I think.

So if that is the spot, who gets put in the crosshairs? Waiakea uka part of Hilo? The flow came just a couple miles from Waiakea Uka in the 80s eruption. How about Kau? Also I know that Hawaiian Acres and it's neighbors were on that "Mauna Loa" part of the HVO map that Glinda shared once, but I failed to relocate. Maybe later.

But what type of geology/volcanology geekometery needs to happen for the lava to shift to coming out of Mauna Loa? Do some plates need to shift? Shifting plates and earthquakes?

[Guest]

quote:

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Originally posted by ElysianWort

Okay so reading from another thread and people guessing that it will pop up in about 5 years? The 1955 flow was similar to this one and then another flow happened in 1960. Does that mean to expect one in year 2022?

How about the where factor? By that time will fissure#8 be completely cooled and lava channel blocked off? Are we to expect another Leilani Estates eruption?

Will the magma surface further up the riff zone like PBmaise was saying?
Or further down in the LERZ? Where is a safe place besides Kohala? [:p] Exciting living on this hot rock!

The way I see it, our guess is just about as good as HVO's guess/prediction.

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Wherever/whenever the next ERZ eruption occurs, hopefully the County will have had time to complete their condemnation/evacuation/tear-down procedures before it hits. Once the area is cleared out, there will be little or no cause for unpleasant interactions etc., between the county (or hot, chewy lava or toxic gases) and citizens. A classic win-win situation.

[terracore]

"Mauna Loa"

There's been a number of studies that have concluded:

"In other words, an eruption in one volcano seems to act as a pressure release valve for the other, leading it to experience a period of relative dormancy."

If true, then indeed a die-back of Kilauea could indicate a more active phase for Mauna Loa. IIRC Mauna Loa's status was downgraded from yellow to green shortly after the Leilani eruption began.

https://www.inverse.com/article/44869-ha...-mauna-loa

[Midnight Rambler]

So if that is the spot, who gets put in the crosshairs? Waiakea uka part of Hilo?

Next time Mauna Loa erupts, it will almost certainly be on the southwest rift, not the northeast. It's been quiet there since 1950, an unusually long time.

That said, my own guesstimate is that after a pause of a year or two, a lava lake will re-form at Halemaumau and activity will focus there for 10-20 years.

[ElysianWort]

So if it is the Southwest, is that more the Kau side?

[kimo wires]

Mole whack..Hualalai

[knieft]

quote:

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Originally posted by kimo wires

Mole whack..Hualalai

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Kona getting cut off from airport and Costco—that will be news. And it is a sooner or later kinda thing...

130 cracks haven’t been mentioned specifically yet, but you gotta think that’s a contender.

More than a few folks I have talked to are going back into properties, upper LE, Opihikao, Ala’ili, etc. Seems a bit of premature un-evacuation—tantric, perhaps?

Back in 2014, when it ended, it was just ok, everything is back to normal. But, this seems different, obviously. Still, one would think we’d give it at least a month or few before deciding to jump into abandoned properties completely.

Then again, everybody has different sitches.

Gonna start a thread tomorrow about deciding to move back for evacs who aren’t cut off, but haven’t figured out a topic title yet that is, you know, cool enough. And the mandatory evacs in relatively lower Leilani have a different problem altogether.

Biggest disappointment? They didn’t get the Thames style Ferris wheel built before F8 stopped...

Cheers,
Kirt

[knieft]

quote:

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Originally posted by ElysianWort

So if it is the Southwest, is that more the Kau side?

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Do you live on the island?

Cheers,
Kirt

[TomK]

quote:

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Originally posted by ElysianWort

But seriously... Mauna Loa

[...]

But what type of geology/volcanology geekometery needs to happen for the lava to shift to coming out of Mauna Loa? Do some plates need to shift? Shifting plates and earthquakes?

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Hawaii is thousands of miles from tectonic plate boundaries, so the answer is very likely "no".