Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here)

[Punatic007]

No problem Paul, I find this to be a very perplexing situation. So far since the flu in the USA is more lethal, I wonder if it's simply the high contagion rate as the reasoning behind all the shut downs in China? What makes this virus so special? Shutting down major cities and travel is a really big deal especially in China.

[PaulW]

Thanks P007. I suspect they have learned from the SARS virus and now are being more open about it and more proactive.
Like Iran, I think they've found it's almost impossible to keep anything big a secret anymore.
Maybe the recent anniversary of the 1918 virus is on people's minds too.

As usual, there are people out there intent on sowing misinformation and trying to cause panic.

[Chunkster]

It's hard to know who to believe when on the one hand there's an authoritarian government with a history of distortion and outright lying, and on the other hand we have social media and all the rumors, exaggeration, and hysteria that go along with it. As others have said, though, quarantining that many people makes one think something serious is going on.

[kalakoa]

on the one hand there's an authoritarian government with a history of distortion and outright lying

...and on the other hand, there's China.

[ironyak]

terracore - The Lancet just published a small-sample study that shows the death rate is 15%, infection rate to those exposed to virus is 83%

The study also noted that no children or adolescents were infected so they're probably immune right? The joys of How to Lie with (small sample-size) Statistics...

If you want to watch the "apocalypse" unfold in real-time, this map is helpful (note your "death rate" is now only 7%)

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/...7b48e9ecf6

Mortality is not calculated by how many people died out of how many were hospitalized (that 15% you quoted) - total deaths is now 56 out of at least 2116 confirmed cases so < 2.6% (safe to go outside again?

[terracore]

quote:

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Originally posted by Punatic007

No problem Paul, I find this to be a very perplexing situation. So far since the flu in the USA is more lethal, I wonder if it's simply the high contagion rate as the reasoning behind all the shut downs in China? What makes this virus so special? Shutting down major cities and travel is a really big deal especially in China.

---

"For example, in 1918 there was a worldwide outbreak of the swine flu that killed 50 million people. According to a review article published in BMC Medicine, the R0 value of the 1918 pandemic was estimated to be between 1.4 and 2.8. But when the swine flu, or H1N1 virus, came back in 2009, its R0 value was between 1.4 and 1.6, report researchers in the journal Science. The existence of vaccines and antiviral drugs made the 2009 outbreak much less deadly." https://www.healthline.com/health/r-noug...alculation

R0=number of people an infected person will infect. So if a "normal" flu year has an R0 of around 1, a pandemic between 1.4 and 2.8. This corona virus has an R0 of between 2.6 and 3.8 (this estimate has been changing daily) but there is no vaccine, or herd immunity, and antiviral drugs do not work. Shutting down cities is the only tool China has to lower the R0.

ETA UPDATE: the R0 for this disease could be as high as 5.47: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/...3.916395v1

[ironyak]

terracore - antiviral drugs do not work

Source?

[terracore]

Q: What are the treatments?

A: There is no specific antiviral treatment recommended for 2019-nCoV infection. People infected with 2019-nCoV should receive supportive care to help relieve symptoms.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html

[ironyak]

That doesn't mean anti-virals don't work, just that there are none specifically designed for this virus (as it is a novel coronavirus or nCov).

Researchers of course are interested in testing various antivirals before the outbreak runs its course.

http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/r...iruses.pdf
"Several vaccine candidates for both SARS and MERS coronaviruses are in early clinical trials. Remdesivir, a broad-spectrum antiviral, has recently been evaluated in an animal model and may be effective in treating MERS and other coronavirus infections"

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00190-6
"The problem with these antiviral compounds is that when you have the compound ready there are no patients. The new coronavirus outbreak will probably be over in six months, like the SARS one was"

Oh on the Hawaii front, the DoH is closely monitoring the situation, so what's there to worry about? /s

[terracore]

Various media outlets have been reporting that none of the antivirals China has (they might have ones that aren't approved here) have worked. I did see an article on Reddit where an experimental one was going to be flown in but it's unlikely they would have enough to do much more than an efficacy trial. The problem with antivirals (other than they don't usually work unless you take them before you get sick) is they have severe side effects, some of them can cause breathing difficulties which isn't something you want to give to somebody with pneumonia.