Posts: 3,212
Threads: 103
Joined: May 2009
Note - the exponential math involved (and the lack and testing and backlog of likely cases) is going to make this count pointless in the coming several days to few weeks. Please act like COVID-19 is in your community (because it is) and take steps to social distance for everyone's health and well-being!
"UPDATE 8:50 p.m.
Maui County officials announced that a female visitor on Maui tested positive for COVID-19 this evening.
She is in isolation and will be monitored by the state Department of Health.
She is the sixth person to test positive for the coronavirus in Hawaii and the fourth person whose positive result was announced today."
Posts: 10,240
Threads: 345
Joined: Apr 2009
I think the numbers so far can't support exponential growth, it's too small a number, but common sense tells you that we're now getting to the stage that everywhere else has experienced and true exponential growth is highly likely in the next few days and weeks.
Posts: 3,212
Threads: 103
Joined: May 2009
Most exponential growth curves start at 1. It's not the value now that is of importance, is the path the new values are quickly going to take.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coron...y#Timeline
On Jan 31st, Italy had 2 confirmed cases. Today, six weeks later, they have more than 21,000 confirmed cases and over 1400 deaths. These numbers will continue to rise quickly for many more days.
We now know of 6 cases in Hawaii so how do the next couple months look for us?
Maybe it's worth everyone washing their hands and staying home as much as possible to help save some lives?
Posts: 1,448
Threads: 12
Joined: Oct 2016
quote:
Originally posted by ironyak
Most exponential growth curves start at 1. It's not the value now that is of importance, is the path the new values are quickly going to take.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coron...y#Timeline
On Jan 31st, Italy had 2 confirmed cases. Today, six weeks later, they have more than 21,000 confirmed cases and over 1400 deaths. These numbers will continue to rise quickly for many more days.
We now know of 6 cases in Hawaii so how do the next couple months look for us? Maybe it's worth everyone washing their hands and staying home as much as possible to help save some lives?
Compare this to Washington State. First case identified January 21, now 642 confirmed cases as of yesterday. That's 53 days of fairly slow exponential growth. If accurate (doubt it) this rate would be lower than your typical seasonal flu. The pace of spread seems to vary widely from place to place. New York seems to be the hot spot now in US.
Posts: 3,212
Threads: 103
Joined: May 2009
The pace of spread seems to vary widely from place to place.
I agree, however you're not going to know how bad it is until it is too late. There is no reason to assume we are going to have a good outcome so take simple steps now to help prevent it from turning into a bad one.
New York seems to be the hot spot now in US.
There are already calls from NYC Councilmen to start planning for a city-wide shutdown NOW, as it is coming one way or the other, just like in Italy, France, and Spain.
https://twitter.com/StephenLevin33/statu...0979723266
Posts: 1,448
Threads: 12
Joined: Oct 2016
Agree. It seems that high density population areas are more vulnerable so Honolulu could be outbreak city in Hawaii with cases spreading out from there.
For once it would be nice if Puna didn't lead the way with bad news.
Posts: 11,033
Threads: 751
Joined: Sep 2012
be nice if Puna didn't lead the way with bad news.
For once the outcome is in the hands (wash them) of Puna residents, rather than County or State or Federal government entities. We’re at the end of the road, most of our housing is spaced at safe social distancing range (unlike apartments), and we’re already accustomed to limiting shopping trips to crowded public spaces.
With this crisis we’re in a relatively advantageous position, especially if we follow all the basic protocols for COVID-19 safety measures. We can’t blame the County if we don’t.
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves
Posts: 3,204
Threads: 108
Joined: Jun 2010
Five dollar Friday -- how much is your life worth?
Maybe all the dirty hippies in Pahoa will finally take their personal hygiene seriously?
Posts: 2,151
Threads: 73
Joined: Mar 2007
@randomq: At the communal water taps this morning, we saw a guy in a speedo doing who was doing exactly that and was all lathered up and scrubbing away. We offered to rinse him off with our hose, but he politely declined since he had already adapted a three gallon container with a shower head on it that he wanted to try it out. He held it over his head and successfully rinsed himself. A true Puna moment in the middle of a pandemic!
The taps were surprisingly uncrowded, considering. We used a Lysol wipe on the taps and handles, and our hose is a food grade product that we keep in a clean, dry condition. Frau Chunkster absolutely refuses to drink catchment water no matter how many or what kind of filters it has gone through, saying, "Die Voegel scheissen da drin."
Posts: 7,734
Threads: 686
Joined: Jun 2011
"Die Voegel scheissen da drin."
Uh.... has she seen where the county gets the water? At least it's only birds crapping in the catchment. I remember one time after removing the catchment cover and looking inside, and warning the wife maybe she didn't want to look at our drinking water and she replied, "In Juneau (Alaska) our water came from Gold Creek. Our dog swam there."
