Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here)

[Durian Fiend]

I read a story from Alaska about a guy who bought up thousands of masks locally and then sold them on Ebay for over 4X cost. He's in deep trouble, being prosecuted and fined for doing so.

[ironyak]

Store "B" sells toilet paper for $20 per roll.

Price gouging? By that logic why not charge $100 per roll so people REALLY only buy and use what they need? (can be further adjusted up as needed of course

Not that TP probably qualifies, but controlling the means of production also controls pricing and availability for critical goods (yeah I know, Marxist commie bastard). Then again we have that whole Defense Production Act in play so free market capitalism can pipe down and take a seat now that things have gotten real?

[Guest]

free market capitalism

Since when has corporate welfare been called free market capitalism?

[kalakoa]

Since when has corporate welfare been called

The people that make the rules also get to decide what the game will be called.

[ironyak]

kalakoa - The people that make the rules also get to decide what the game will be called.

The truth of course is much messier and complicated than any internet quip allows for (not that I don't like a good quip). Some segments of the U.S. economy are heavily regulated and/or subsidized; others not so much. Having run a small-business here and there, I apparently never qualified for any corporate welfare checks, regardless of it was an LLC or S-Corp operation. (Insert animal farm reference here - more equal animals or Boxer and the glue factory come to mind)

However, it should be clear that this event has exposed the weakness of globalization and international supply chains, especially for essential goods and services during an emergency. As every nation has realized it is largely on its own in this, many industries will be reshored and placed under government oversight afterward as a matter of national security. It would be asinine to overlook such a move in the geopolitical game going forward especially with China and Russia rising.

[knieft]

ironyak

Statistics are simply an insufficient tool for accurately recording or representing such an event as this. While they may be true, the numbers are such a narrow slice of this reality as to be largely meaningless.

So you have declared statistics meaningless. Fair enough. To each his/her own.

I find they, at the very least, provide some perspective. One perspective, yes. But meaningless?

For instance, using the link TomK shared a couple days back...

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

...the Hawaii state death total is estimated at 372. Adjusting for population that would mean 53 deaths on the big island. About a dozen in Puna.

I certainly hope and pray they are wrong and far fewer die. But that does provide perspective. As well as the projection that peak will be early May and ending by July. That is perspective as well. I hope that part is true. The talk of social distancing and the economic damages going on for 18 months was not comforting, to say the least.

How accurate any of this will be in hind site is, of course, yet to be known. But whatever the numbers turn out to be, they would be statistics and be "largely meaningless" even though they represent the tragedy of human death.

I don't think you're in the ostrich camp at all as you've said you're (begrudgingly) willing to social distance (despite not believing in the reasonings or not liking being told what to do or something?)

Begrudgingly? Yeah, I guess that's accurate. Am I supposed to relish it? And then I wouldn't be cold and heartless?

Not believing in the reasoning? I have no idea where you get that idea.

I have and am pretty confidant that I am not one of the Outbreak monkeys on the loose.

I am too. And your sharing of your knowledge here is very welcome.

Money is made up and has no inherent value - if you don't believe so, just go talk to the Fed as they create trillions of dollars out of thin air this month alone. So yes, there are economic consequences that are part of this, but there is also a bottomless tap that can inflate our way out of it, which is now under direction of the Treasury. Alan Greenspan told us all this years ago, wasn't anyone listening?

Ok, now you declare money has no value. Since we _can_ deficit spend we may as well do it even bigger time since it is bottomless tap?

You appear to be dismissing the economic consequences out of hand.

"Money doesn't matter unless you don't have any."

So the almost worthless paper doesn't factor much into my equations, while the human experience does, especially minimizing human suffering. Should we feed, educate, and house more people at all times, of course. But it's not a lack of resources, it's a lack of empathy that prevents this. Anyone who says otherwise is alright, jack, just keep your hands off of my stack.

Wow. I am so happy you have everything figured out for us. I remain fuzzy on the whole good/bad thing, but that is just proof that I lack empathy and am thus the reason there are unfed, uneducated, and homeless people.

Hopefully you can just declare COVID-19 deaths aren't part of the human experience and we would all be set.

I'm not a xxxJ or -A in any sense (I let the missus handle that stuff). I'm deep INTP-T

My apologies. I thought the INTP-P was a typo. I had never heard the T or A bit.

- find the underlying truth and rules be damned when they don't help. Right now there are a lot of old rules and norms that aren't helping and preventing people and society as a whole to face up reality and make the changes needed. The sooner we all realize this and adapt the better off everyone will be and I make no apologies for taking up the soap box or megaphone to say so.

Are you talking about flattening the curve here, or something grander?

Cheers,
Kirt

[kalakoa]

Some segments of the U.S. economy are heavily regulated

Which regulations are often written by the corporations; see also "regulatory capture".

Having run a small-business here and there, I apparently never qualified

Exactly. Corporate welfare is only available to those who need it the least.

many industries will be reshored and placed under government oversight

With careful set dressing so that it's only described in terms of "national security" (good) instead of "socialism" (bad).

A large part of the problem is people's perception. Billions for the airlines? That's an evil bailout. Everyone gets a check for $1200? That's a necessary stimulus.

[PaulW]

Interesting article in the NYT:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/opini...-dose.html

"Low-dose infections can even engender immunity, protecting against high-dose exposures in the future. Before the invention of vaccines, doctors often intentionally infected healthy individuals with fluid from smallpox pustules. The resulting low-dose infections were unpleasant but generally survivable, and they prevented worse incidents of disease when those individuals were later exposed to smallpox in uncontrolled amounts."

It might be beneficial to have (accidental) exposure to a small amount of the virus, as it gives your immune system time to learn before being overwhelmed.
I'm not sure how that helps and you certainly shouldn't seek out low doses but interesting nonetheless.

[ironyak]

knieft
Again, I'm not sure this is the best venue for this discussion but am willing to try, again.

Statistics as a whole aren't meaningless. Statistics divorced from the underlying reality can be. Being a data analyst you become very wary of believing your numbers more than the facts can support.

You've read your Baudrillard right? "The map is not the territory." Focusing on the representation and not the reality can lead to some particularly bad outcomes ("the desert of the real"), part of which includes minimizing human experience for numerical summaries (Given your chops I tend to believe you have similar academic touchstones, but this might not be true of course)
http://publish.uwo.ca/~dmann/baudrillard1.htm

Or to put it another way -
"A billion people died on the news tonight
But not so many cried at the terrible sight
Well mama said
It's just make believe
You can't believe everything you see
So baby close your eyes to the lullabies
On the news tonight"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfLMNuvqJMo

the Hawaii state death total is estimated at 372. Adjusting for population that would mean 53 deaths on the big island. About a dozen in Puna.

Again, to reach these low numbers people need to believe it can be MUCH worse and take appropriate actions. If it's only going to be a dozen people then what the hell - time to take the keiki to that beach party with tutu! Again, every public health expert wants to be wrong in their (over)estimates - but the public needs to believe they could be right for this to happen. "This statement is a lie"-type cosmic f#cking irony in the extreme.

I'd say those possible dozen preventable deaths in Puna are somebody's auntie, parent, or child, but you don't seem to be swayed by that in any way. Why is this?

Begrudgingly? Yeah, I guess that's accurate. Am I supposed to relish it? And then I wouldn't be cold and heartless?

I have spent MANY hours trying to convince people to give a ****, you included. Whatever resistance you have to all this makes no sense to me nor to the facts at hand IMHO. Again, whether this is from a principled "why should I do what others tell me" or "it's just the flu bro" or "what's several-hundred thousand deaths to me or the world" I don't know. At the end of the day it's all sounds like the the same nonsense dismissal B.S. to me.

Apparently, many thousands of people dying in China, then Iran, then Italy, and New York doesn't phase very many of us - we fundamentally cannot see us in them and understand the common humanity in what is happening. Empathy? Willingness, even eagerness, to help? Anyone?

you declare money has no value.
No, it has no inherent value. This is always the lesson learned when a country goes through an massive economic crisis. Disagree? I'll bet you a trillion (Zimbabwe) dollars on this.
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1X-Zimbabwe-100...3374309099

You appear to be dismissing the economic consequences out of hand.
Not dismissing, just putting in its place. Providing people with food, shelter, and healthcare isn't a matter of enough money, it's a matter of enough concern. Given infinite deficit spending and infinite printing presses, there is no lack of funds, just a lack of care for those who most need it.

Here's Alan Greenspan (you know that Fed Chairman guy) almost a decade ago explaining this. How is this not clear? The U.S. can pay any debt because it can always print money. What do you think is happening right now?
https://www.thenewamerican.com/economy/e...ney-supply

What else were the lessons of FDR's social programs of the Great Depression? You can feed, house, and employee as many people as you care to. There is not a lack of calories, trees & land, or work to be done.

but that is just proof that I lack empathy and am thus the reason there are unfed, uneducated, and homeless people.
It's sounds like you're over-personalizing this? I wasn't saying you are ringing up the till and laughing, I was saying that those who say such issues can't be addressed, are doing so. Maybe this flying pig went over some heads?

Hopefully you can just declare COVID-19 deaths aren't part of the human experience and we would all be set.
No idea what this means other than it appears to run counter to literally everything I've been saying - like pay attention and care about what is happening!

I had never heard the T or A bit.
Yeah, looks like a more recent addition - assertive vs turbulent
https://www.16personalities.com/articles...-turbulent

Are you talking about flattening the curve here, or something grander?
Flattening the curve is the immediate part - people recognizing we aren't animals, we live in a society, and our actions have consequences on everyone else.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qFx1Cpxpx1E

But many other things are also up in the air currently as we're living through a transformative event. What the world looks like afterwards will not be the same as it looked before so it's good to start thinking about what can be tossed into the dustbin of history and what positive changes can be made personally, economically, culturally, & socially.

Sounds grandiose? Megalomaniacal? Perhaps, but at least I'm in good company.

https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2020/03/30/...a-pandemic
David Kessler - The world we know a month ago, is actually gone forever... Just like we say do you remember what airports we're like before 9/11 ... we'll say do you remember the world before the pandemic? ...

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/video-a...were-never
Governor Cuomo - "As a society, beyond just this immediate situation, we should start looking forward to understand how this experience is going to change us, or how it should change us, because this is going to be transformative. It is going to be transformative on a personal basis, on a social basis, on a systems basis. We're never going to be the same again. We're not going to forget what happened here.

The fear that we have, the anxiety that we have, that's not just going to go away. When do we get back to normal? I don't think we get back to normal. I think we get back, or we get to a new normal. Right? Like we're seeing in so many facets of society right now. So we will be at a different place.

Our challenge is to make sure that transformation and that change is positive and not negative. Let's make sure we're taking the positive lesson and not the negative lesson."

tl;dr? IDK - If God is willing and da creek don't rise? (running out of natural disaster / Spike Lee references

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Again, to reach these low numbers people need to believe it can be MUCH worse and take appropriate actions.

Far greater numbers of people respond to worst/best case scenarios:

Example 1:A - we don’t want a telescope built because it’s against the religion(s) and culture(s) for some of us
Example 1:B - the telescope is a nuclear powered, radioactive, ground water contaminating laser weapon that will ...

Example 2:A - Black Friday Sale ar Hilo Walmart! $2 off flat screens!
Example 2-B - Black Friday Sale at Hilo Target! 50” flat screens for $149.99!


I don’t think we get back to normal.

My parents lived through the depression. They had 5 of everything in their basement & attic because they had lived without so much during the 1930’s. That experience of deprivation never went away. If we live through COVID-19 we’ll have our own set of innate responses to everyday occurrences; a stranger sneezing, a shopper rolling a container around in their hands to read the ingredients, then placing it back on the shelf. Will we avoid buying that bottle or can? How much tp will be enough in the future? More than we considered plenty 2 months ago?

“If this were a terrorist threat, we would have declared war on whatever group was responsible for it back in January.” - Oona Hathaway