COVID-19 confirmed in Hawaii: 607+ cases 16 deaths

[randomq]

In line with ~1% mortality rate of known cases that most health authorities are estimating so far. If we hit our limit of respirators though, that percentage could jump. Thank you to everyone who is taking this seriously.

[Durian Fiend]

quote:

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Originally posted by hokuili

state leaders believe that the number will continue growing over the next several months

That's a very telling statement, several months, eh? Does that means they think social distancing isn't working?

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The IHME projection website indicates peak health care needs occurring next month then declining to baseline in July. https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

[1voyager1]

@hokuili

Much of this has already been said by others and/or myself.
But, here it is again.

First of all, we are only in the beginning of our portion of the epidemic.
It is too soon to tell if "social distancing" is actually working.
May never be able to tell if it is actually having an effect anyway.
If it is being practiced by everyone, you can assume it is working to some degree.

It also assumes that people are practicing it.
I still see people crowding along aisles and in lines at stores.
Plus, other locations away from the stores.
It only takes one to infect others.

From its effects elsewhere, and the late and minimal protections taken by governments, I have spoken that it will probably be at least 5 months before we see any reduction in infections, probably longer.
We've already surpassed China's admitted numbers.
Even at that, it will still be something that one needs to take measures to hold it at bay for even longer.

The making and availability of a vaccine is too far away to count on it helping you in anyway in the near term.
At first it was projected that it would be 2 months, recently it it up to 18 months.
I still hold that it will probably be in the neighborhood of 2 years [24mo] or more before it's available to the general public.

The U.S. has only 23% of the population of China in a slightly smaller land area with ~3.75 times the number of confirmed cases.
Theirs has peaked with new infection numbers dropping, while ours is still climbing exponentially with no signs of reduction of new numbers.
Can you really act as if you think we're doing OK?

And, back to your question:
An answer to your question has no true answer other than a best guess, hope, probable, gotta be, or ... ?
EDIT
Forgot to include:
Do you see any verifiable positive signs that "social distancing" is actually having an effect?

- - - - - - - - - -
Was a Democrat until gun control became a knee jerk, then a Republican until the crazies took over, nothing left.

[ironyak]

several months ... peak next month

The peak is measuring the max number of current cases, of course, not the total cases. The total cases can only change its rate of growth, but it is going ever upward for the next several months till it stops (hopefully). Excelsior?

Was a Democrat until gun control became a knee jerk, then a Republican until the crazies took over, nothing left.

May I suggest Libertarian or Anarchist instead? May be recruting us all soon anyways, may as well be at the front of the mob. ?

[knieft]

1v1: Can you really act like we are doing OK?

Who said we’re doing OK?

ironyak: but it is going upward for the next several months

Does several mean three?

This is what Durian posted:

The IHME projection website indicates peak health care needs occurring next month then declining to baseline in July. https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

It was a completely reasonable sharing of information. The reactions, maybe not so much.

Cheers,
Kirt

[ironyak]

knieft - Does several mean three?

I'm of the "single (1), couple (2), few (3), several (4+)" school of thought, but sure several could mean three, five, eleven or more. That's the whole point of using the word several - it's an undefined range more than 1. Also, it's the quoted term from "state leaders" in the article so maybe take your English critique to them?

China is officially in their 4th month and still has new cases occurring, 30 more just today. Way past their peak of active cases, but ever upward in total cases until it's over.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...try/china/

The IHME is one of MANY models - as no one knows for sure, why choose to believe this one over any of the others? Have you verified their assumptions and formulas for mathematical soundness, and their data sets for completeness, or do you just like its dulcet tones as it reassures you it's all going to be all right?
https://www.civilbeat.org/2020/04/the-im...-covid-19/

I like IHME as they are very clear in their how their model works and report how accurate they've been so far and how they've changed their predictions over time as new data comes in. Doesn't mean they are going to be "right" (all their numbers have a large ranges like 39k to 177k U.S. deaths currently predicted), but at least they are being open and honest with their guesswork.
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

[ironyak]

On the subject of models, this is a good summary of the situation IMHO - not that anyone reads these links (who has the time, right?

Colin J. Carlson, Ph.D.
https://twitter.com/wormmaps/status/1245859001071353856
"Can I talk to the public as a modeler for a second?

I've been training for something like this for 10 years. I've been doing outreach, posting, publishing and now I'm asking you:

Don't listen to modelers right now. Don't try to understand the full range of good and bad science.

Normally, there's a bell curve of good and bad science - some really brilliant work, some really confused work - but it all sort of approximates the truth like a shotgun blast.

Right now, every single person with my training is doing this work. I can't even keep up with it.

What that means is that every now and then, there's going to be a paper that says something like "Africa won't be hit by COVID because it's too hot" or "10 million Americans were infected weeks ago and the disease isn't severe."

I promise it is, really, as bad as it seems.

I promise you that not just as an expert on pandemic preparedness,

or as an expert on epidemiological models,

or as a scientist working with policymakers,

but as someone who has watched friends and loved ones coordinate the response to this and be utterly crushed in the wave.

We passed a million confirmed cases today. This is still early. There might never be anything as dangerous as this, ever again.

Stay inside. Follow the rules. Wash your hands. Look out for your loved ones & your community, and do your best to keep COVID from spreading. Keep on."

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

The IHME is one of MANY models - as no one knows for sure, why choose to believe this one over any of the others?

They even say their information is updated daily, so weeks or months from now, with new info, the numbers and timeframe may change. But isn’t that what we want? Someone who looks over the data, takes new info into account, and makes adjustments as needed?

Those numbers will also change as each of us change our behavior. We’re all wearing masks since yesterday, right? We’ve learned how to properly wash our hands and stay at home. More of that and the curve becomes flatter and flatter.

[knieft]

[quote]Originally posted by ironyak

China is in their 4th month and still has new cases occurring, 30 more just today. Way past their peak of active cases, but ever upward in total cases until it's over.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...try/china/


Yes, of course, ever upward in cases and deaths after the peak till it’s over. One of their graphs shows that in very plain site. Why the need to mention it in every response to peak? Durian said back to baseline in July. There was no attempt to spin the info.

It appears China has many areas that the virus has yet to run its course since it has such a large dispersed population...? Deceptive reporting? Dunno, but Italy has hopefully peaked in six weeks or so. Spain may even quicker, but we shall see, of course. But focusing on China in this case is cherry picking in a way.

New York may be peaking in the next week, but if anyone says that, they would be accused of not being sensitive or something.

I _think_ I understand you are spinning stats (a few, perhaps even several, examples over the last weeks, most of which I let be) to make it scarier for everyone so they take social distancing seriously. Perhaps that is the right thing to do. Perhaps the ends justifies the means. Probably.

I like IHME as they are very clear in their how their model works and report how accurate they've been so far and how they've changed their predictions over time as new data comes in. Doesn't mean they are going to be "right" (all their numbers have a large ranges like 39k to 177k U.S. deaths currently predicted), but at least they are being open and honest with their guesswork.

I couldn’t agree more. The first link on the page is about their methodology, and the range of predictions is clear. I hope for the lower range. I assume you do as well.

Cheers,
Kirt

[Guest]

If anyone's spinning anything knieft I think it is you. Ironyak is doing us all a service by sharing his perspective and commentary. We see it for what it is, a fairly even keeled discussion of an exploding issue that for some Ironyak is making a lot easier to get through these uncertain times. I think we owe him our appreciation, not a constant stream of bickering.