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Oil didn't make it to $200, despite the predictions of many. With a huge new oil field in Saudi starting up 6 months early and Iraq ramping up production, it will stay relatively low for a while to come.
But even if oil did go up, gas has already been at $10 a gallon in Europe and guess what happened? People kept driving. And there they actually have a choice between cars or public transport.
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Can't speak to the rest of Europe, but in Great Britain there is a considerable difference in the way people drive compared to the US. Firstly, most people drive small cars, with US Mileage equivalent to 40mpg. Also, recreational driving (non work related) is much less than the US. I would expect the average annual mileage to be around 8000 miles or less for the average car owner in Britain. Some car use is caused by the fact that while commuter train prices on a season ticket basis are affordable, local bus service is quite expensive and time consuming. Many people only drive on weekends and annual holidays, and tend to keep their cars longer than we do in the US. City center parking is also expensive, and drivers make use of outlying parking lots with 'park and ride' shuttle service. Also, a lot of people ride bikes or actually WALK! The younger generation is more like us, wanting to drive even short distances, but most major Supermarket chains run a free bus service around the town for the benefit of patrons.
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For those who haven't seen it, here is the DOE source document of 2005 considering oil supply peaking. It's worth a read and very applicable to the conversation. Even though only 2005, at this point it seems dated and far too conservative. But, it was a Bush era oil document. Nonetheless it is constructive and informative and is an issue that should be present in any policy making, personal or otherwise.
[url]
http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/oth...g_netl.pdf[/url]
By and large the data seems to suggest we're indeed past peak at this point, made worse by the credit crisis keeping new fields from being opened in a timely manner. That is of course subject to conjecture and discussion. . .but the fact remains peaking will occur if it hasn't already and changes in behavior must occur.
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Interesting article. These paragraphs caught my eye:
When world oil peaking will occur is not known with certainty. A fundamental
problem in predicting oil peaking is the poor quality of and possible political
biases in world oil reserves data. Some experts believe peaking may occur soon.
This study indicates that “soon” is within 20 years.
Past predictions typically fixed peaking in the succeeding 10-20 year period.
Most such predictions were wrong, which does not negate that peaking will
someday occur. Obviously, we cannot know if recent forecasts are wrong until
predicted dates of peaking pass without incident.
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It is a thoughtful and well written piece but dated. Many experts today will say peaking has already occurred. We need to hope that isn't the case. I hate to hang my fate on hope and wishes, personally, and I think few would if they understood the gravity of the issue. Transition away from a oil based economy will take time, and unless we stay ahead of the curve--with a strong enough resource economy to afford such transitions, we're in real trouble. As far as I'm concerned if such notions are even discussed in the mainstream, it's a good thing. Once we admit we must transition, the question becomes "by when" and "how." For myself, as I see it the answer is "now" to the first question, and "I've no idea" for the second, as I think we've already screwed up. I hope I'm wrong about that, but I would solidly get behind any meaningful and proactive efforts to make progress. Again, personally there's a lot one can do to ease the inevitable shock, and due to the near complete lack of efforts on a large scale, personally advocating such techniques consumes most of my time. Regardless, what is utterly important, as the article states as well, one must make the transition BEFORE one suffers a supply crash. Why wait? What is gained by waiting?
If we started today, lockstep, towards moving the Big Island towards a significantly less oil reliant lifestyle, even with extreme and oppressive legislative coercion and massive investment, we're solidly 15 years out.
I appreciate anyone who takes the time to actually read that link. There's a lot there.
We've got to make the changes while we can still afford to, and being able to afford to requires we make those changes while fuel is still cheap.
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O.K., lets try this. Put aside all the current proposals. Put aside all the issues of traffic, future social priorities, what traffic it will allow, or any of the items that distract from routing, etc.
Highway 130 is the primary route in an out of lower Puna. What if that road was closed? In an emergency based on normal traffic, the alternatives existing streets would not be able to sustain an emergency evacuation out of the area while sustaining emergency traffic into the area.
An alternative based only on an emergency use is needed. Assuming that that emergency route will need to handle vehicles exiting and emergency vehicle entering, And, except when needed for an emergency the route would be closed to all vehicle traffic except public mass transit. That means all the social, environmental, pro & anti progress issues are not a factor.
As an emergency route, (and not going off into fantasy land over and sticking to what is currently available for funding) where will it go?
quote:
Originally posted by PaulW
Sorry Damon, I'll take the US Census Bureau's estimates over anyone's personal experiences any day.
I guess you have never worked for the census bureau then. [  ]
After spending the last 6 weeks canvassing East Hawaii and knowing of all the SNAFU's that we went through in the process of doing it... The Census Bureau is a really messed up place right now.
Our supervisor even told us they lost some East Hawaii Data at one point this year.
There are other people who worked for the census bureau that also post on Punaweb and I'm sure they can verify how Screwed up some of the things that we were put through and how much data is not even really calculated.
They train us to only take the address of a location if it's listed and to move on to the next address.
How many of you folks have an address listed on your house... BUT YOU ACTUALLY PICK UP THE MAIL AT THE Post Office.
You tell me after the 2010 census has taken place if you actually received something at the address that the Census Bureau has on record! [V]
This years census was so built upon people rushing through jobs so that superiors above them could get bonuses that the canvassing across the Nation has been considered very shabby to say the least.
Trust the Census count... Laugh of the Day.
During the first week of training I asked during our training how accurate the Census is in our area... The response... about 60%.
Who you gonna believe... Me... a former employee that was doing the census canvassing...
Or those getting big bucks in Washington DC?
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How does this work in puna nobody gets mail at there street address
Posts: 1,955
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How about we make this project #1 to make sure puna gets a full count. could we get someone from census to come to h.o.a. meetings. is some way for people who dont get the stuff in the mail to get forms?
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I did not see any marked vehicles or people in HPP
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